Translated material
They will survive, but they will not forget
Europe has plenty of oil, but is outraged by the supply cutoff
Yesterday in Berlin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso had difficulty finding words to express their attitude towards stopping oil supplies from Russia. The German government and European Commissioners met to discuss plans for the German EU presidency, which began on January 1. But the oil “war” between Russia and Belarus not only adjusted this meeting, but also, apparently, will force Berlin, during its chairmanship, to even more persistently study the possibilities of diversifying energy purchases."Trust is always destroyed when steps like this are taken without consultation," Ms Merkel said. Consultations, the German Chancellor emphasized, are the minimum that must be used in case of difficulties. Barroso, for his part, after the meeting in Berlin, spoke about the blockade of the oil pipeline about “an unacceptable and alarming process.”
Officials in Germany itself are not yet inclined to dramatize the consequences of the oil blockade. The Germans import about 100 million tons of oil a year, and 20 million of them came through the Druzhba oil pipeline, which was closed on Monday morning. “Enough oil is stored in refineries to ensure a reliable supply in the event of long-term interruptions,” German Federal Economics Minister Michael Glos said on Monday. Against this background, Berlin’s political pressure on the supplier country will obviously increase. Minister Glos called the situation “intolerable” on television yesterday and demanded that supplies through the oil pipeline be resumed in full as soon as possible. No one in Berlin can say when this might happen.
Yesterday, not a drop of oil arrived at the PCK Raffinerie oil refinery in Brandenburg Schwedt an der Oder via the Druzhba oil pipeline, despite the daily processing volume of 31 thousand tons. The company's representative, Karl Heinz Wellnus, told Vremya Novostey that the plant does not have any notification from the supplier country about the cessation of supplies. The oil pipeline blockade does not directly threaten to disrupt the enterprise's work schedule. “There are still some reserves,” says Wellnus. The refinery in Schwedt (it was then called a petrochemical plant) was built in the early 60s on the easternmost outskirts of the GDR on the border with Poland to process oil coming from the USSR. In its entire history, this is the first time that “Friendship” suffered a “political failure.”
Despite the current disruption in Russian oil supplies, the International Energy Agency (IEA), headquartered in Paris, does not believe that this could pose a danger to end consumers of petroleum products in Europe. Even if Druzhba is blocked for a long time, oil supplies for refining can be carried out through alternative routes. And, as it became known, some refineries have already begun organizing such supplies. However, an agency spokesman said that “the IEA wants a quick and clear resolution to the conflict.”
However, even if it happens as the IEA demands, it is now unlikely that it will be possible to restrain a new round of the already extremely heated discussion about the dependence of Germany and the EU on Russian energy supplies. The arguments that were at the disposal of opponents of increasing energy cooperation with Russia exactly a year ago during its gas “war” with Ukraine have now been reinforced by new evidence about the danger of unilateral dependence, or, as one authoritative German publication put it yesterday, a “Russian energy prison.”
For Angela Merkel, the cessation of oil supplies through the main transport artery from Russia was the reason for another conversation about the need to exclude unilateral dependence on “individual energy suppliers.” The German chancellor is also becoming increasingly clear about the possible abandonment of plans to exit nuclear energy adopted by the government of Chancellor Gerhard Schröder. Yesterday, in her interview with ARD television, Angela Merkel noted: “Of course, we will have to think about what consequences we will face if we turn off nuclear power plants.” However, maintaining the nuclear power plant is unlikely to fully compensate for possible major interruptions in the supply of hydrocarbons. As former Environment Minister Jürgen Trittin, the main initiator of Germany's abandonment of peaceful atoms, said yesterday, you can't heat your house or refuel your car with uranium.
On January 21, Angela Merkel will arrive in Moscow for negotiations with Vladimir Putin . “We are facing negotiations to conclude a new agreement between the EU and Russia,” Frau Merkel noted in a television interview yesterday. “I hope that in the near future we will be able to lift the blockade of these negotiations.” This blockade, as you know, was established by Poland , which also suffered during the current crisis. As local observers note, the German Chancellor, who calls for strengthening the strategic partnership with Russia, intends to be more stringent in matters of energy cooperation between the two countries. Angela Merkel emphasized yesterday that “all countries participating in cooperation are obliged to comply with the concluded agreements.” “We need legal certainty, we need contractual certainty,” she demanded. After all, she recalled, Russia established itself as a reliable supplier during the Cold War . True, now this argument sounds completely unconvincing to Europeans.