Translated material
The dollar rested
Before US Independence Day, the American currency fell by 16 kopecks
Over the past two days, the dollar in Russia has lost about 16 kopecks. Yesterday its rate fell against the ruble by 7.14 kopecks, to 25.65. The official euro exchange rate increased by 10.8 kopecks. and is 34.95 rubles. All this happened against the backdrop of a falling dollar on the world market. Against the euro, it approached the April low, and against the British pound it dropped to a 26-year low (fell from $1.3582 to $1.3636 per euro and from $2.0131 to $2.0197 per pound) . Analysts explain these data by the desire of investors to insure themselves before the weekend - Independence Day, which Americans celebrate today. After all, on Thursday the results of meetings of European central banks will appear and the fate of interest rates will be decided, and the market must prepare for this.The head of the market analysis department of Sobinbank, Alexander Razuvaev, believes that Russian investors should not forget about internal factors that affect the ruble-dollar ratio. “Oil prices are at a high level (on world markets yesterday they continued to rise due to terrorist threats in the UK and expectations of a gasoline shortage in the US - Ed. ), given this state of affairs, the gradual process of strengthening of the ruble is quite natural,” he notes . “The Central Bank’s policy towards the dollar has not changed; it continues to allow the ruble to slowly strengthen, so that at the end of the year the dollar may cost less than 25 rubles.”
The dollar is becoming cheaper, and the euro is becoming more expensive on world markets. Many analysts are inclined to believe that the financial authorities of the ECB and England will decide to raise interest rates on Thursday. Although some market participants predict a reduction in rates in the UK. But few doubt that the US Federal Reserve rate will remain at 5.25%, and this circumstance continues to put pressure on the American currency.
Yesterday, on the eve of US Independence Day, investors were not eager to enter into large transactions. There were also concerns about trends in the U.S. housing sector, as well as expectations that borrowing costs in the world's largest economy would remain stable while rising in other regions.
Anatoly Nikitin, chief dealer of international currency transactions at BrokerCreditService Investment Company, notes that the growth of the euro and pound in recent days is mainly due to speculative sentiments. “Investors simply decided to protect themselves before the weekend,” he said. - After all, European central banks are expected to make decisions on rates on Thursday, and then players will have the opportunity to make a decision based on key data. Yesterday, traders who were long positions in the pound and euro decided to hedge their bets, so these currencies jumped.” At the same time, no tendentious changes in the economy have occurred, Mr. Nikitin emphasizes: “Something fundamental can be expected after the release of semi-annual reports, that is, at the end of July-August.”
At the same time, the European Commission reported yesterday that the economic prospects for the eurozone are favorable, the catalyst for GDP growth is largely driven by domestic demand, and inflation is under control. “These are good times for the eurozone. Apparently, they will continue for now,” says the quarterly report of the EU’s top executive body.
However, according to Mr. Nikitin, the euro is now at a fairly high level, and when it rose to 1.368, the ECB immediately made cautious statements that further growth of the euro currency was undesirable.