Lukashenko wants to bargain

The President of Belarus intends to sign a gas contract before the Kremlin chimes strike

Alexander Lukashenko began a propaganda campaign ahead of the next stage of gas negotiations with Russia. Having promised on Saturday to try not to delay the signing of the contract until the New Year's strike of the Kremlin chimes , as happened last year, Mr. Lukashenko did not fail to accuse Gazprom of an incessant thirst for profit. Moscow has become accustomed to the attacks of the Belarusian leader, but does not forget to punish him for failure to fulfill commercial agreements with the ruble and restrictions on oil and gas supplies.

“Gazprom earns, as they say, decent money here and profits from us... Next year they want to raise our price by another 15-20%. I don’t know what we did wrong to the Russian leadership. This green light has obscured the eyes of some monopolists, and they see nothing but money,” Lukashenko told reporters. The Belarusian leader did not rule out that it would be difficult to sign a new contract and that last year’s situation would repeat itself. “Everything is possible and will depend on how the negotiations go. But we will try to sign the contract before the Kremlin chimes,” Mr. Lukashenko noted.

Representatives of Gazprom have repeatedly said that the cost of gas does not require special discussion - according to the contract signed last year, it should be determined depending on the average European price level.

On the evening of December 31, 2006, just minutes before the termination of the contract for the supply of Russian gas, the Belarusian delegation nevertheless agreed to sign a new agreement. In addition to supplies for this year (21 billion cubic meters at $100 per thousand cubic meters), the contract provided for a three-year schedule for Minsk to switch to purchasing gas at European prices. In 2008, the price of Russian gas for Belarus should be 67% of its average European cost, and in 2009 and 2010 - 80 and 90%, respectively. Thus, if we subtract from the forecast export price in non-CIS countries ($270) a 30 percent customs duty, which is not charged for supplies to Belarus, as well as the cost of transportation to Germany, it turns out that from January Beltransgaz will have to pay not less than $120 per thousand cubic meters.

Mr. Lukashenko nevertheless intends to bargain. “Our position is known. Minsk will link gas price issues with issues of hydrocarbon transit through Belarus,” the president explained. But this is unlikely to succeed, since along with the supply contract, a four-year transit agreement was signed with a rate of $1.45 per thousand cubic meters per 100 km via Beltransgaz networks. Moreover, the bulk of Russian gas exports through Belarus (more than 70%) goes through the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, which belongs to Gazprom, at a preferential tariff.

Having sincerely scolded the monopolist for his greed, the Belarusian leader tried to establish contact in absentia with the new Russian Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov: “I am counting on greater understanding on his part (compared to what the previous head of government, Mikhail Fradkov, provided. - Ed. ). I expect that if governments agree on something, they will implement it.” However, there are no signals yet for a change in Moscow’s political line towards Minsk.

Alexey GRIVACHS