About "War", Khimki and Manezhnaya Square

If we talk about situations with the arrest of Vorotnikov and Nikolaev from the group "War" after the overturning of cars in St. Petersburg and the arrest of Solopov and Gaskarova after the events at the Khimki administration, comparing this with reaction of the authorities to the pogroms on Manezhnaya Square, then there are several moments.

First, to arrest on the spot during such riots as on Manege, it's hard. That is, the police detain some people, but then it turns out that they have nothing to present, because, if not falsify testimony, it is impossible to establish who did what. IN As a last resort, only police resistance can be incriminated. But no one in particular from those who beat people in the square or later in the subway, was not detained.

Secondly, of course, it is pointless to compare with the "War". This particular a group of people who are famous. All that was left was to go and get them. And on Manezhnaya had to figure out who is the instigator, or those who directly carried out some attacks. They can't several thousand people arrested. Moreover, it is presumably takes time. Maybe it will follow, and maybe not.

Thirdly, in the case of Khimki, they detained those (and tried to detain, but could not), who was actually considered the organizers, although I find it difficult to say how true this can be. And on Manezhnaya such people are not yet found. In principle, it can be assumed that some people will be identified from the video, for example, and accused of organizing riots, attacking the police and something else in this kind. In Khimki they took those who were in plain sight. Here it could also be to do: take Belov, for example, and blame him for something. But here such the moment that the attacks were actually carried out by other people, not Belov after all. They need to be found, and it is difficult.

In addition, the authorities, of course, are afraid of new unrest. So yesterday after some ridiculous rumor, Manezhnaya was blocked for several hours an area where nothing should have happened. Tomorrow is probably all will be drawn to Kievskaya. After such riots, the authorities are concerned not so much with the identification and punishment of criminals as in order to avoid repetition. Generally speaking, this is a weak policy. But, I must say, this is happening not only in our country.

Power feels very insecure when dealing with big a lot of pretty aggressive people. It is a fact that when the number of participants in riots it is measured in thousands, the authorities give in.

OMON could not disperse people on the square, as is usually the case On the 31st, simply because the balance of power was radically different. And in in general, if the participants in the rally on Manezhnaya did not want to leave, they would not have left, there would not have been enough strength to push them out of there.

It's a matter of quantity. Roughly speaking, whenever the power is in conflict with some small group of people, no matter what kind of deviant behavior, she can just suppress them. If this group is large, then the phase begins negotiations. And arrests, of course, can be combined with negotiations, but this requires political art, it is risky.

I don't want to make predictions, but it seems to me that some time will pass, a week or two, everyone will make sure that nothing else happens, and after this will be arrests. Something like this is unlikely to happen again in the coming days. events of December 11, it will be difficult to organize something. Authorities mobilized and blow hard on the water. It is clear that the leaders nationalist groups that are the main beneficiaries events on the Manezhnaya, if not completely idiots, now organize nothing will not. But for sure they will wait for the moment to repeat it. By the way, some kind of arrest may be such an occasion. Think, the authorities understand this. This is where you need to be smarter. I think some tricks are already planned.

Sources

• Verkhovsky A. About "War", Khimki and Manezhnaya Square // Grani.ru. 2010. December 14.