Putin's election promises will cost a budget of 5 trillion rubles

The Sberbank Macroeconomic Research Center analyzed Putin's article on social policy and calculated how much the budget will cost the presidency of the presidential candidate: raising salaries to teachers and doctors, scholarships, benefits for children and apartments to veterans. It turned out 5.1 trillion rubles in 2012-2018, the data "Vedomosti" gives.

The most expensive promise is the increase in salaries to teachers (to the average in the region since 2012), university teachers and doctors (up to 200% of the Central Servial of the Central Service by 2018), which will require about 3.5 trillion rubles in six years.

The increase in expenses is distributed unevenly, increasing annually from almost 300 billion rubles in 2012 to 1.3 trillion in 2018, or from 0.5 to 1.23% of GDP, the authors of the calculations, Nadezhda Ivanov and Mikhail Matytsin. On average, a social supplement will cost 0.85% of GDP annually.

These expenses are not as large as some other initiatives of the government and the president, but are still able to violate the budget balance, the authors say. According to their estimates, with an oil price of $ 95 per barrel on average in 2012-2014, the budget deficit will be from 0.5 to 1.5% of GDP, with more expensive oil, the budget can be reduced again with the surplus. The increase in expenses by 1% of GDP per year at best will change the deficit surplus.

Other promises of the prime minister from its other articles can increase the budget deficit up to 3% of GDP, counted Julia Trucheaeva from BNP Paribas. Thus, the indexation of pensions to the inflation rate, taking into account the growth of the number of pensioners, will increase the budget transfer in the next 2-3 years from 4.8 to 5.5% of GDP.

Support for regions from the federal budget will remain at the level of 3% of GDP annually. This means an increase in either public debt or taxes, the expert believes.