FAQ

Today, these questions are asked by many: to each other and themselves. I also ask myself all the time about it. And here is what answers I have.

1. Who wins, and who loses in the confrontation that began in December last year?

First blitz-survey:
- What party won the election?
- Who was chosen by the president?
- Whose laws are unhindered in the Duma?
- Who puts whom in jail, searches, drags on interrogations?
- Which party prevails in all trials without exception?

The answers are obvious. It seems that it seems to be that Putin won all the fronts on all fronts, and the opposition movement licked with a bang, trampled, rubbed into powder.
However, I have no doubt that this is not so. And even in a certain sense, on the contrary (in Moscow, according to the Levada Center, in July, Putin’s anti-rating was first higher than the rating: 31% versus 27%). The position of the autocrat, which seemed unshakable a year ago, today does not look very good. The throne is staggering. They shout from above: "Oh, do not swing!" Power is nervous, hysteria, performs small meanness. The winners do not behave like that.
What is the matter?
And everything is very simple. Putin thinks that the fight with the opposition goes in parliament, in court, at polling stations. But a real struggle unfolds not at all there and not for that. The regime throws all his resources to where no one was seriously fighting and was going to fight with him. The price of the Putin’s election commission, the Putin Duma, the Putin court is known - what battles can be there?
The opposition does not fight for all these months at all for mandates and not for fair sentences, but for minds and hearts (sorry, but I don’t know how to formulate it less pathetic). And then Putin certainly loses. Each of his triumph in the sections of the front, which seem to him important, turns into another defeat in the main direction.
Nadkimt on December 4 and March 4? Lost millions of souls.
Dragged several crooks through the Duma? A few more million in minus.
He released riot police in the capital's streets in May? Get an anti -rating from Muscovites.
Decided to take revenge on three girls for a punk summer? Already, go, not happy. If they are not released now, Putin will have big problems at home and abroad.
And ahead is still a process in the case of May 6 and the trial of Navalny. The tougher the sentences, the tougher the public reaction will be. If Pussy Riot, thanks to Putin's resentment, became world stars, then from a Navalnaya regime, a new Mandel and the Nobel laureate is guaranteed to prison.
Putin recognized one important defeat himself. He abandoned the claims to be the president of the whole of Russia. I realized that there was nothing to hope for the support of a democratically tuned middle class and cringed, I began to work exclusively on the image of the “leader of ordinary people”. Only in this way, in my opinion, can all these Urals of the Envoy, Light-from-Ivanov, patterning popes, etc. can be explained. There will probably be no more meetings with cultural figures. Because if you call only the lyso -observations, the propaganda effect will not come out. And you will call non-library, so they, bastards, will either refuse an offensive form, or say nasty things.
The creative estate, on which the victory in the notorious war for minds and hearts largely depends on Putin is lost: either went into an open opposition, or simply distanced.

2. What will happen next?

In principle, everything goes to the predictable (and predicted) way, no better and no worse. As expected, having barely endured before the inauguration, Putin rushed to twist the nuts. This period will continue until the ruler understands that from twisting the nut on the worn bolt, the thread breaks, that the regime does not scare anyone, but only multiplies the number of his opponents and stimulates a variety of opposition to unity. (There, she has already grown up before the election of the general coordination council).
Forecasts are a risky thing, but I assume that the events will develop further as follows.
By the time Putin wisers and wants to enter bridges, the opposition will just complete the process of primary self -organization. Throughout the country (no longer in the capitals), the Brownian movement will begin. It will probably take the whole of 2013, gradually intensifying. And in 2014, Putin's compatriot, very possible, will come to an end.
Events can accelerate under the influence of external shocks (for example, the economic crisis) or in the escalation of repressions (the situation of the “breakdown of the thread”). The process can slow down, as it seems to me, in the same case: if Putin suddenly repains into the “reformers”. Then many moderate oppositionists will breathe a sigh of relief and decide that they fulfilled their duty to society, and the policy is dirty, let others deal with it.
But such a change in the course is very unlikely. The degrading system is therefore degrading that it is incapable of effective restructuring (once, in the 80s, we already observed this).

3. But how to make Putin wiser quickly?

If you reason in cold blood, one could say: let him be furious - he will set up more people against himself. But it is impossible to reason in cold blood when it comes to human destinies. Therefore, I believe that civil society will have to conduct an operation "Coercion of V.V. Putin to prudence."
There are many ways. Two come to mind on the move.
The only protection of the regime from the Street today is the police, or rather several thousand riot police. Putin has no other resources. Sooner or later, the opposition leaders will figure out that this point needs to be beaten.
After all, riot police also live in our dysfunctional country, scold power among themselves and do not like their unsympathetic authorities. But demonstrators are enemies for them. And not even because the riot police are washing their brains, but because the crowd looks at people in the helmets of a wolf and screams hostile. And it would be necessary to start special workshops, seminars, lectures, Internet courses called “Talk to the riot police”. I saw at the street action of the evil genie in armor-do not shy away from him, but come in and just talk humanly. He is not an enemy for you, he is a lamp slave. It must be spaced.
The correct way to communicate with riot police and the police is not the same:

Taken from http://shal-and.livejournal.com/

But this:

Taken from http://feministki.livejournal.com/2249161.htmlt

The high authorities are scared to death. One of the court historians will explain to them that the three-hundred-year-old Romanov house collapsed after Petrograd workers spoke heart to heart with the soldiers of the Life Guards of the Volyn Regiment.
The other path is less idyll.
If the regime creeps into the twisting of the nuts, the civil disobedience campaign can begin, fraught with transport collapses, sedentary strikes, non -payment of utility bills, a boycott of “collaborators” and God knows what. This is a very heavy, traumatic thing, but still better than a bloody revolution.

4. And can not take everything and “calm down”?

No, true. Some active will be put, others will be squeezed into emigration, and thirdly they will be bought. Without these bosoters, protests will subside, the country will reconcile with the inevitable, new leaders will not appear. All hundreds of thousands who went to demonstrations, and tens of millions who voted against the authorities, will say: “Okay, what is it there. Let Putin rules forever, let the thieves roll back and saw as much as they want, the parliament will come down to us and the normal court - to whom did he surrender to FIG? ”
In such a turn of events, I think, only Volodin with Sergey Ivanov, and Nadezhda Babkina, believe.
The system holds barely. The only thing that public irritation has not yet reached a boiling point. Of course, a lot of pair goes through the ajar lid (I mean social networks). Pzhv scolded on the Internet - it seems like he had already fought with the regime.
But the cover on the pan bounces. If the authorities still add a light, the water will boil and overflow over the edge.

Original