Hamovnic dead end

On the eve of the sentence to the participants of the Pussy Riot group, everyone guesses what the punishment will be. The possibility of justification is not even considered, and this is understandable - not the first day in Russia we live. Everyone agrees that the verdict will not be correlated with the fault of the defendants, but with political expediency, as it is understood in the Kremlin. And this is also understandable - only such "justice" we know.

What the commentators diverge is in assessing the sentence of punishment. Again, it is clear why - everyone to the best of their insight, malice or tolerance tries to determine what exactly in the Kremlin is considered appropriate. That is why the scatter of opinions - from "limited to the seized" up to three years requested by the prosecutor.

It is unlikely that I will be very mistaken if I assume that in the Kremlin there is no unequivocal idea of ​​the appropriateness for this occasion either. In addition to the naturally natural dislike for the defendants, the puppeteers of justice have to take into account a lot of factors. On the one hand, there is an unexpected Pussy Riot support campaign for them, the status of prisoners of conscience from the arrested, speeches in their protection of Russian culture figures, including by no means opposition, prospects for the growth of shares in defense of convicts throughout Russia and abroad, noticeable irritation in the company of the Antichristian position of the Russian Orthodox Church and even a deaf ramp in a dull of a murmur in the Stan of Derivery Derived. supporters from United Russia and law enforcement agencies. On the other hand, the authorities cannot neglect the tough position of the church, claiming its exclusivity and the "state -forming" role; does not want to appear before society as a weak player who is unable to tame a political protest; does not intend to approve the rule of law to the detriment of its political interests; I do not agree to the manifestation of humanity, which by security forces is considered exclusively as unforgivable weakness. To all this, analogies are added not only with the Stalinist times, but also with the era of the courts of the Inquisition and church obscurantism.

The transformation of justice into arbitrariness is encouraged by power not only in courts, but also on the street. Police functions are transferred to the Cossacks, where private security enterprises. Last Wednesday, the guards of the Cathedral of Christ the Savior dispersed a peaceful demonstration in support of Pussy Riot, which twenty people held on a porch of the temple. The demonstrators held the “blasphemous“ slogan ”blessed in their hands, for which church security beat both the demonstrators themselves and the journalists in the place of the journalists. The arrived police washed their hands, detaining one of the demonstrators and without touching the aggressive shit from the security company.

This story, as it were, reveals the page on tomorrow, where “right” citizens can be mocking “wrong”. However, power is hardly so stupid as not to understand that the "wrong" citizens will give their answer to this. The question is now what will lead to a court decision in the Pussy Riot case: to public peace or civil conflict?

There are so many factors affecting the adoption of the final decision and they are so contradictory and changeable that it is really difficult to develop a final and balanced judgment. The easiest way out is to entrust the sentencing by justice is absolutely unacceptable for the authorities, since this will mean the loss of control over the situation in the country, that the democratically determined part of society considers goodness, and power - catastrophe.

Unfortunately, this is not a figure of speech, not an exaggeration. The separation of powers between the executive, judicial and legislative power leads to the loss of a monopoly on the power of the presidential administration. The idea of ​​decentralizing power is contrary to practical steps to create a presidential dictatorship. To launch a case on a gear in at least one resonant trial is to show your unpreparedness to create a tough state system with the president at the head. Absolute powers and “manual management” in the understanding of Putin are incompatible with judicial independence. Any assignment to the requirements of the law or public opinion will alert the supporters of Putin and inspire his opponents.

Tolokonnikova’s soft sentence, Samutsevich and Alekhinova is possible only if the authorities soberly assess the possible consequences of a court decision and understands that the damage from the harsh sentence will be much more significant than from soft. They do not think about what to do: correctly or wrong, legal or illegally. Their task is to minimize the damage from the possible consequences of this wild court, and they are arranged. Damage not to the defendants, not justice, not to Russia, but only to the authorities itself, its stability and prospects.

In such situations, authoritarian authorities often made mistakes. They still could not imagine that some events that are insignificant from their point of view, such as, for example, the murder of a priest of Jerzy Popelushko in Poland or the destruction of the South Korean Boeing in the Soviet Union, can shake the stability of the system that has existed for decades and relying on the army and special services.

It is good or bad, but power, as a rule, is not intellectual enough to make responsible decisions in such cases. The current Russian government, who blessed the Khamovnican court in the show in the spirit of the Middle Ages, is no exception. Therefore, on the coming Friday Tolokonnikov, Alekhin and Samutsevich will most likely be sentenced to three years of colony each. I would like to make a mistake, but there are almost no hopes that the power will change his mind earlier than the three girls become recognized victims of the regime and the symbol of anti -Putin resistance.