"The Russian government is not a monolith"

It seems to me that for the opposition the most important event in the new season is the elections to the Coordination Council . And what is important here is not the number of opposition leaders and activists, but the attempt itself to mobilize hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens living both on the Internet and offline. Elections should remove the main question: “Who do you represent here?” A transparent and understandable procedure should contribute to the restoration of the democratic institution of elections, because the official ones have already been emasculated.

About the actions of the authorities
You need to monitor what will happen inside the real power structures responsible for making decisions. And here our government, unlike, for example, Belarus, is not some kind of monolith. The Russian bureaucratic elite is very tied to relations with international financial institutions. Therefore, there are potential conflicts within different clans.

As for the attitude towards the opposition, you can expect anything here; to one degree or another, every organizer of protest events is not immune from anything. And here it gets to the point of absurdity, like my case, when on August 17, warrant officer Ratnikov brought completely crazy accusations against me ( Garry Kasparov was accused of biting a riot policeman - PublicPost). In addition, they can pass any laws, including repressive ones. Parliament has long lost any semblance of independence and has become an outgrowth of power.

About high-profile cases
The “Bolotnaya case” ( the case of mass riots on Bolotnaya Square on May 6 - PublicPost) will be an exemplary reprisal. This is in the style of the existing regime. They will use the process to sow fear as much as possible and prevent the manifestation of any protest activity, to discourage people from participating in mass actions. So, regarding the prisoners of Bolotnaya, I have a very pessimistic forecast. The fate of these people will depend on how soon Russian society gets rid of police oppression.

About clerical politics
Further playing of this card by the authorities increases the risks of destabilizing the country. And not only because many other confessions may perceive the advance of Orthodoxy negatively, because now there is practically no compact denominational residence, and we live in a multinational and multi-confessional country, but simply also because many people do not want a church in one or another form invaded their lives. The initiative with Tkachev’s Cossack army (Alexander Tkachev, governor of the Krasnodar region, PublicPost), the creation of Orthodox patrols suggests that there is no law in the country, that we live in a country of victorious lawlessness. And this will greatly affect the stability of power. And, if the economy shakes, then, since all state institutions do not function, this government can collapse very quickly.