Apple copper pipes: The peak of fame is behind?

Steve Jobs at the presentation of the first -generation iPad, 2010 Wired PhotoStream

Before his death, the founder of Apple Steve Jobs expressed the hope that his best times of his company are still ahead. Jobs believed in his team - in particular, in the successor of Tim Cook - and in the fact that she could continue to remain a leader in the global electronics market in terms of innovation. But in 2012, the company produced at least two products that are extremely difficult to call the best in its class in the market. This is an iPhone 5 and 7.85-inch iPad mini smartphone. The first relatively small and by no means the most progressive 4-inch display, in fact an outdated operating system, the design of which has not changed for five years, and the absence of any revolutionary ideas. Moreover, Apple was accused of combining: the company saw that the market was waiting for devices with a larger screen of the screen and "adapt" to competitors, says MFORUM ANALYTICS expert Alexey Boyko. At the same time, he adds that the high price of the iPad mini is not justified: in fact, overpaying the user.

Apple was accused of combining: the company saw that the market was waiting for devices with a larger screen of the screen and "adapt" to competitors

As for the tablet, it is also clearly seen here that the company from Cupertino only catch up with competitors: once they have a good thing in it, that they will never create reduced tablets, and now they have released one of them. Moreover, far from the best and most uncompromising in the market. At a price, one and a half to two times larger than the main competitors (Amazon and Google), the iPad mini cannot boast of either a revolutionary design, unique “chips”, or even outstanding technical characteristics.

Of course, all these nuances are reflected in the market state of affairs. So, analysts from the company IDC calculated that according to the results of the third quarter of 2012, the share of the iPad in the market for tablet computers fell by 10 percentage points to 50.4%, although a year ago it was approximately 75%. The share of Samsung tablets on the Google Android platform has grown three times and amounted to 18.4%. Amazon accounts for 9% of the market, ASUS - 8.6%.

There are also serious changes in the smartphone market. According to Strategy Analyitycs, from July to September, that is, in the third quarter of 2012, the iPhone lost the status of the best -selling smartphone in the world. During this period, Apple managed to sell 16.2 million iPhone 4s, while the Samsung Galaxy SIII was dispersed by a circulation of 18 million pieces. And here, of course, the Korean company is by no means playing dumping. The advantage of its "galactic" smartphone is in a larger screen and expanded functionality. Alexei Boyko considers this situation to be predictable: “At the time of the appearance of the iPhone there was a wow effect, there was a breakthrough in UI (user interface), in general in UX (user experience), to some extent technological breakthrough, users learned in practice the term“ ecosystem of the device ”and appreciated the advantages of what it is.

Now there is no revolutionary novelty in Apple products, this is just one of many smartphones. Moreover, to some extent, he is already conservative, for example, by the form factor, and also lost signs of elitism, despite the still high margin. ”

The IDC says that in general, the Android mobile gadgets already occupies 75% of the market. In just a year, the platform has become more popular by 91.5%. Apple's share decreased to 14.9%. Here is such arithmetic.

Anna Zaitseva, an analyst at the Finams Management Criminal Code, believes that “the main factor in a certain decrease in popularity and, possibly, weakening of the corporation’s positions in some markets is, first of all, a significant increase in competition in the smartphone segment”. “In addition, the latest release of Apple was slightly different from senior devices - and did not suggest cardinal breakthroughs, which also adversely affects the level of popularity - the market definitely awaits new solutions from the company.”

Strategy Analytics also says that for the first time during the IPhone debut in 2007, the loyalty of users began to fall. According to a survey conducted by analysts, the share of iPhone owners in Western Europe, who are going to replace their current new generation IPhone smartphone, decreased to 75% compared to 88% last year. In the USA, the loyalty rate fell from 93% to 88%. SA Brown Director Paul Brown says that the cause of user loyalty falls is that the iPhone 5, in fact, is deprived of any innovation compared to previous models.

The share of the owners of the iPhone in Western Europe, who are going to replace their current new generation IPhone smartphone, decreased to 75% compared to 88% last year

At the same time, experts note the rapidly growing progress of the Android OS. The observer of the influential technological blog The Verge Joshua Topolsky believes that Android 4.2 is the most “smart”, advanced, flexible, functional and pleasant operating system for smartphones from all existing ones.

Why are only two devices - iPhone and iPad - are of such great importance for Apple? Yes, because now the tablets and smartphones form up to 80% of the total income of the company. And in the future, the importance of these devices will only grow: the mobile gadgets market is experiencing rapid growth, but the PC market has been stagnating for several years. Look at the data of analysts from Gartner. They argue that in 2012 70% of the total number of devices sold in the world (821 million pieces) were either smartphones or tablets. In 2013, they predict, 1.2 billion smartphones will be sold in the world, and PC sales will grow by only 1-2%.

Many are also concerned about the personnel permutations in Apple, which has recently been left by many key employees. The chief executive director of the company Tim Cook, obviously, cannot work with many key employees. Recently, Apple has left the head of the IOS development team Scott Forstall, Vice President of retail sales John Browsett, Vice President of the development and services of Eddie Kew and a number of key managers.

On the fronts of the patent war, which Apple started almost with all the manufacturers of electronics, the first failures were also outlined. So, Virnetx patent trolls from the company from Cupertino $ 368 million for violation of patents associated with VPN technology (virtual private network). With the HTC, the Yablons had to conclude a patent agreement.

The market, of course, cannot not notice all this. Over the past one and a half months, Apple shares have lost about 20% of their maximum cost. On September 21, the companies were given $ 705 for shares, and now they cost about $ 558. The capitalization of the corporation for this period decreased by $ 138 billion. The current fall in Apple shares is the most significant since the collapse of stock markets in late 2008.

The current fall in Apple shares is the most significant since the collapse of the stock markets at the end of 2008

There are fears on the market that Apple gadget suppliers will not be able to satisfy the demand for all its devices. Terry GOU, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Taiwan Hon Hai Precision Industry (TM FoxConn), has recently stated that the company can hardly fulfill all the customer’s quality requirements for the iPhone 5 quality and produce them in those quantities that are ordered. "Follow the order on the iPhone 5 is very difficult. We barely manage to satisfy this huge demand," he said in an interview with Reuters. At the same time, manufacturers keep secret information about whether Hon HAI copes with the production of itself, or has a part of the orders for its partners.

Barclays analysts also expect such problems with the supply of iPad mini. Walter Pikik, an analyst with BTIG Research, calls another problem: the inevitable increase in production costs will lead to a fall in the company's profitability.

Analysts from Gartner believe that by the beginning of 2013, mobile phones will become the most popular devices for Internet access, bypassing computers from this point of view, and by 2015 more than 80% of the cell phones sold will be smartphones. And today it is obvious that Apple is far from a monopolist in this market and, perhaps, not even the most important player. However, “I would not be in a hurry to bury or regret Apple. The company's products lose their raid elitism, but perhaps this will be compensated by the growth of the number of consumers,” Alexei Boyko emphasizes, on the other hand.

In conclusion - the commentary of Anton Nosik, who shared with Pro Science with his thoughts about the future of Apple:

"In 2007, the iPhone was, in fact, the only smartphone in his market segment. He had neither competitors nor analogues. Therefore, users simply had nothing to choose from. The first serious competition for competition was called the Samsung Galaxy S2, entered the market in 2010, and a half a half went to conquer Samsung. The innovator (until then it was customary to believe that the Koreans are only able to clone Western developments), but since Samsung managed to prove their storage, the iPhone was forced to share users with the opponent.

Remember the boastful paradox of Ford? "The car can be of any color, provided that this color is black." Steve Jobs at one time reasoned with the same arrogance: the phone can have a diagonal only 3.5 ", since this is the optimal size for the human hand. And the tablet can have a diagonal only 9.8", because I decided so, Steve Jobs. Until then, as long as Apple products in these two markets had no analogues, this mantra seemed unshakable. But Samsung went the other way, immediately releasing the device on the Android platform in countless form factors. In particular, tablets of three different diagonals (from 7 "to 10.1") and phones with screens from 3.5 "to 5.4". The market supported this strategy. The diversification turned out to be winning, so Apple followed the example of a successful competitor. The mini tablet is not designed to displace the iPad 3 from the market, it simply expands the product line.

No one said that the product in the line can be only one. Each successful manufacturer strives for diversification to adapt to different tastes and different consumer demand. Take the most massive product in the history of Apple, which is called - iPod. Remember how many varieties are there? Shuffle, Classic, Nano, Touch - these are all names not models, but lines, in each of which there are several generations, and in each generation there are several modifications. I do not see any problem in this.

The current Apple lacks the unconditional faith of the consumer in the omniscience and omnipotence of the head of the company. But Jobs, alas, cannot be returned. But there is a very successful corporation, one of the most expensive in the United States, which earned $ 36 billion in the IV quarter of 2012, including 8.2 billion net profit (for comparison: a year earlier, the indicators of the same period amounted to 28.7 billion revenues and 6.62 billion profit). In the current quarter (he is considered the first in 2013), the company is going to earn 52 billion.

Her business is very widely diversified: Apple earns on portable computers, desktop computers, mobile phones, MP3 players, software, selling books, music and films, constantly develops its global retail network. At the same time, in all directions in which Apple works, she is a leader (albeit not everywhere sole) and shows a confident increase in income. In the end, her business is not to surprise us, but to make profit to his shareholders, and Cook copes with this quite successfully. "

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