The Kremlin is choosing between loyalty, professionalism and the demands of industry lobbyists

On June 24 this year, Sergei Ignatiev’s term as chairman of the Bank of Russia expires. Undoubtedly, one of the main political and economic intrigues today is who will replace him at the helm of the Central Bank in less than three months. candidates are named Various , and Vladimir Putin traditionally maintains intrigue .

Meanwhile, public interest is not at all idle, since the head of the Central Bank has always played and continues to play a significant role in shaping economic policy in the country. This role will only increase due to the need for a prompt response to the unorthodox actions of the world’s central banks and the hasty , but, apparently, inevitable formation of a mega-regulator based on the Central Bank. It is also important that the head of the Central Bank, unlike the heads of the executive branch, has a certain freedom of action, and can also publicly express an independent opinion on economic issues, even if it runs counter to the line of the Kremlin and the White House.

Of course, a lot here depends on the personal characteristics of the chairman of the Central Bank.

In Russia, this post was occupied by people very different in their background and qualities - Georgy Matyukhin, Viktor Gerashchenko, Sergey Dubinin. In this series, Ignatiev will probably be remembered as one of the most silent heads of central banks in modern history (his recent sensational interview clearly stands apart here), but the Bank of Russia under his leadership, it must be admitted, pursued a completely independent policy, actively counteracting inflationary processes and who provoked them.

Due to the large number of applicants, it is difficult to compare their very diverse personal and professional characteristics. And the choice will inevitably be not only interpersonal, but also political, so let’s try to describe the main types of candidates, as well as the most likely trends in monetary policy corresponding to them.

Type 1. "Internal frame"

The inheritance of the chair of the chairman through the central banking line seems to be the smoothest and most problem-free (in the current structure of the Bank of Russia, for some reason, there are already four first deputies, while there are only two “ordinary” ones). The “internal cadre” will ensure the continuity of the course and will, most likely, generally continue the monetary line developed during the unprecedentedly long eleven-year Ignatiev rule, defending the status quo from attacks that have become more frequent in recent times.

Type 2. “Man from the market”

The conservatism of the Central Bank can be good, but only to a certain limit. It is well known that the Bank of Russia has many critics in the banking community; in particular, there is strong disagreement with its supervisory and regulatory policies. The market assesses the Central Bank's activities in the field of refinancing and its role in the expansion of state banks differently. Therefore, the arrival of a representative of the banking sector in the post of the head of the Central Bank will contribute to the liberalization of relations between the regulator and commercial banks, and may lead to a softening of the schedule for the transition to new Basel standards, as well as to some adjustment of monetary policy in the direction of weakening.

Type 3. “Stimulant”

Among the likely contenders are those who believe that the Central Bank should play a much more active role in stimulating lending to the real sector and ensuring economic growth. If one of these candidates appears at Neglinnaya, the monetary policy model may change noticeably in the direction of increasing the money supply, and the Bank of Russia’s tolerance to inflation will increase.

However, despite the possibility of inducing a short-term recovery in the economy, the risks and limits of such an approach are well known.

It is also possible that the economic bloc of the government, led by the Ministry of Finance, will try to balance the activity of the Central Bank and move to more conservative positions, so that the resulting policy vector will not be so different from the current one.

Type 4. “Guaranteed”

In recent years, among the highest Russian nomenklatura, those whose credo is under no circumstances to show initiative or express their own point of view have become increasingly noticeable. They just energetically fulfill any wishes of their superiors and, with varying degrees of sensitivity, try to anticipate them. This is not at all unlikely, but certainly the worst choice for the role of chairman of the Central Bank: in this case, the bank risks being built into a vertical and ceasing to play the role of an independent center for forming economic policy, with all the ensuing negative consequences.

Type 5. “Retired”

However, a completely different, non-economic logic may also triumph. Then, when appointing the head of the Central Bank, the choice will be made in favor of returning to the political scene in a new role of one of the heavyweight figures previously retired from active work. Of course, unlike the “guarantors,” each of these figures has their own ideas about what the monetary strategy should be in the current conditions, but this factor will be deeply secondary to the political meaning of such an appointment. It is likely that such a move will not resolve the uncertainty, but will only be the first in a series of other changes in the highest echelons of power.

***

Of course, in nature there are no chemically pure types of the type described. Of course, the future head of the Central Bank, who today clearly belongs to one type or another, may turn out to be somewhat different after a certain time. Of course, the key thing is not belonging to a conventional category, but the professional and personal characteristics of each individual candidate. Of course, all this is nothing more than a crude speculative scheme.

But the very type of candidate being nominated will make it clear, like nothing else, whether economic policy as such is important for the Kremlin today, and if so, what is the likely trend of its change in the near future.

New head of the Central Bank: five main options