The main costs for Russia will not be associated with US and EU sanctions, but with the costs of supporting the new subsidized region

The desire of deputies or even residents of a certain region to join Russia does not mean that this will happen. Transnistria held a referendum back in 2006, in which 97.1% of the population voted for “independence and subsequent accession to the Russian Federation,” and at the end of last year, the Transnistrian Supreme Council voted in the first reading for a bill on the transition to Russian legislation, but the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic , which has existed as an unrecognized independent country since 1991 until it entered Russia. South Ossetia and Abkhazia did not do this either, although Moscow could have easily “persuaded” them: these “countries” exist at its expense.

But let’s assume that Crimea will not become part of the belt of unrecognized countries, which Russia uses to destabilize its neighbors and have leverage over them, but will still become part of the Russian Federation. At least so that Vladimir Putin remains in history as the man who returned to the country the territory that was annexed to the empire by Catherine II.

And then the question arises of how much it might cost us.

I propose to dismiss speculation about sanctions, seizure of assets and other cruelties for now. Now it seems that if not the United States, then the European Union is not ready to apply draconian measures to the invader Putin. Great Britain does not want to close the City of London to Russian money. Germany - to aggravate its energy difficulties with problems with the 50% of natural gas that the country now purchases from Russia. Italy, Spain, Greece will lose the flow of Russian tourists. In 2012, Russian guests spent, for example, €1.8 billion in Spain , and on average no one spent more on hotels and restaurants per day than ours.

For Russia, the EU is the number one trading partner; European countries account for 49% of Russian foreign trade. According to Russian customs data , the Russian Federation and the EU last year had a positive trade balance of almost $149 billion: we export there about a third more than we import from there. Of course, primarily due to energy resources, which make up 71% of our exports.

According to Eurostat , Russia accounts for 7.1% of European exports and 11.8% of imports. These are not the volumes that pragmatic Europeans will risk for the sake of a weak and, from an economic point of view, necessary for them like a weight around the neck of Ukraine.

And unless there are serious sanctions from the Europeans, it is unlikely that the United States will do anything particularly tough.

It will cost with symbolic sanctions, like against China after Tiananmen Square. Well, maybe they won’t issue visas to some Russian officials. They will not supply any components for weapons. Or they might even want to seize assets. But even the family and associates of Viktor Yanukovych are “arresting” them, that is, so far they are only declaring such an intention - slowly, as if deliberately trying so that they have time to transfer everything they can to offshore jurisdictions and thoroughly confuse the ownership of everything else.

Ukrainians are waiting in vain for meaningful help from the West in putting pressure on Russia. Putin took some risks, but he has good cards in his hands.

Crimea, however, is still far from free.

In the first half of 2013, according to the Kiev Investgazeta, Crimea (without Sevastopol) was fifth out of 26 Ukrainian regions in terms of net assistance from the central budget (in first place, contrary to the widespread myth about “backbone Westerners” - Kiev, in the second and third - Donetsk and Lugansk regions). Over these six months, Crimea received 3.78 billion hryvnia more from the Ukrainian budget than it paid. If we count 4 rubles per hryvnia, the exchange rate at the end of June last year, it is 15 billion rubles. Let's assume 30 billion rubles a year.

According to the Ministry of Finance on the distribution of subsidies to Russian regions for 2014, in our country this year there are only three regions with a higher level of funding from the federal budget: Yakutia, Dagestan and Kamchatka. Per one Crimean citizen, Ukraine currently allocates a subsidy of 15,200 rubles to the region, and Russia will allocate 14,750 rubles per person to Chechnya in 2014.

This, however, will not be enough, even if the current large taxpayers of Crimea, the enterprises of Ukrainian oligarchs, primarily Dmitry Firtash, continue to regularly pay Russia.

According to the Ukrainian publication Insider, currently 65% of gas in Crimea is supplied by the 100% state-owned Chernomorneftegaz, which produces this gas in the Black and Azov Seas. It is possible, of course, to change this proportion by supplying gas directly from Russia, but this will require building a pipeline.

Approximately 80% of the water in Crimea comes through the North Crimean Canal from the territory of Ukraine. It is clear that no one will block the canal, but Ukraine is quite capable of charging more money for water.

Four-fifths of the electricity in Crimea is supplied by Zaporozhye and Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power stations, located outside the territory of Crimea. Tariffs may well be raised here too.

Russia will have to either negotiate the life support of Crimea with Ukraine, or build new infrastructure. The first will be difficult: not to send troops into Kyiv, if he bargains hard, he will have to give in something. Secondly, it's expensive.

There is, of course, the main source of income for Crimeans – tourism. According to Ukrstat, last year the positive balance of exports of services of the autonomous republic - this column shows the economic effect from tourism - amounted to $446 million. Of this, $195 million came from the CIS countries and another $22 million from Asia. Russian Crimea can hardly expect tourists from other countries, at least in the first couple of seasons after the Anschluss. For Russia, this means that the lost income will have to be compensated for by the growth of Russian tourism, which is unlikely to happen, since everyone who wanted to travel freely to the Ukrainian Crimea, or again from the budget.

Imperialism is generally expensive. Imperialism in years of economic stagnation is ruinous: right now, Russia has absolutely no need for another deeply subsidized region. But, as they said in the USSR, we do not skimp on ideology. But VTsIOM reports that Putin’s rating is at a record level for the second week in a row. Almost 68%.

And this, as you understand, is priceless.

Crimea: the price of imperialism