Markets have “recognized” Crimea as part of Russia and are not expecting serious Western sanctions. But traders seem to believe too much in the power of the mind

We are now much closer to universal Ukrainian-Russian happiness than it might seem. We just need to clarify that we are talking about happiness in an exclusively market sense of the word.

Russian stocks have been growing well all this week, here is a chart of the RTS index. “bounced” up Even the ruble , although, in general, there are no economic grounds for this. At the same time, yields on Ukrainian government bonds began to fall. Here, for example, is a dollar paper maturing in September 2015. Back on March 18-19, it was approaching 19%, and on Thursday, the 20th it dropped to 17%.

The sudden, cautious optimism about the economic prospects of both Russia and Ukraine is a reflection of a certain picture of the world. It does not introduce any significant sanctions against Russia: “targeted strikes,” even such as the one inflicted by the United States on Thursday on Putin’s friends - Gennady Timchenko, Arkady and Boris Rotenberg, Vladimir Yakunin, Yuri Kovalchuk, as well as the “special” Rossiya Bank. , are still unable to cause serious economic pain to Russia, except perhaps anger the president personally.

The West, feeling a little guilty for not protecting Ukraine and supporting it mainly in words, begins to quickly allocate financial assistance to it, prevents it from defaulting on its debts, and supports the necessary economic reforms.

Everyone actually recognizes the annexation of Crimea by Russia.

And they each go their own way: Russia - to the materialization of Soviet nostalgia, Ukraine - to Europe, the West - on their own, usually not very related to the post-Soviet space, looking down a little, but not suffering much.

This is a cynical, trader’s version (“Snow is falling...” - “Buy quickly!”) of the forecast for tomorrow’s and even the day after tomorrow’s news. Made, as usual, on the basis of yesterday's news, or at least today's. About, for example, the fact that Great Britain proposes to the EU to introduce an arms embargo against Russia - but France, which does not abandon its intentions to sell Mistral helicopter carriers to Moscow, immediately mockingly proposes to block the accounts of Russian oligarchs in London banks. And Germany, which intervened with some conciliatory words in this conversation, was immediately advised to reduce the import of Russian gas, which covers 50% of the country’s needs for this fuel. The squabble drowns out the squeak of Latvia, which demands compensation from the EU in the event of the introduction of serious sanctions against Russia, because in any case they will hit this small country dependent on Russian transit.

And the assumption of quick atonement for Ukraine - in the form of material compensation for territorial and moral damage - simply suggests itself. Psychologically.

And everything seems to indicate that this is how it should be. But who could have predicted five weeks ago how things would turn out? That Yanukovych will hastily flee from Kiev, that Putin will react so nervously and send troops into Crimea, that Crimea will be chopped off, that - not without the participation of provocateurs sent from Russia - unrest will begin in the south-eastern regions of Ukraine and the new revolutionary authorities will have little control even the rest of your country?

Such a scenario was seen, quite recently, only in nightmares and only by people with the most developed imagination.

Why not then assume that everything will go back to the worst possible scenario? That Putin, enraged by targeted sanctions against his friends, will not go on a rampage, confiscating the property of foreign banks and companies in Russia, sending unmarked troops to Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, Odessa, Nikolaev? That the Americans and Europeans, frightened by the growing aggression, will not spit on their economic interests, will not impose very frightening sanctions - like against Iran - and the UN will not send peacekeeping forces to Ukraine (the General Assembly has such an opportunity, bypassing the Security Council, in which Russia has a veto)?

If after some month we find “blue helmets” somewhere in the Sumy region, and we don’t find working cards of international payment systems in our wallets, if Russia finally becomes an outcast, and we are banned from entering even countries with which our the country currently has no visa regime - would you be surprised? I wouldn't be surprised. Obsessed with the neo-Soviet dream, inspired by its unexpected realization, the Russian leadership, and with it the Russian majority, showed the ability to act without regard to all sorts of little things, such as relationships with neighbors and partners built over the years.

In the name of a higher goal, such nonsense can be eliminated instantly, without unnecessary reflection.

The market has a short memory and no ability to predict events at all: all it has at its disposal is irrelevant data about the past.

Even if we believe in the ideal cynical scenario for the Russian average, which dictates the behavior of stock exchanges, we must prepare for the worst. To the triumph of madness. As Rumi says,

The path of reason has led me into trouble,

Now I will go the path of madness.

Anything is possible: what the Ukrainian crisis taught us