On a given path

Is it possible to seriously talk about Putin's unpredictability

To the next carnival in Dusseldorf (Germany), the German cartoonist Jacques Tilly (in the picture) made a giant “portrait” of Vladimir Putin from Papier Masha. March 2014

A typical mistake of the well -meaning domestic thinkers: first invent (or borrow in the media) a fabulous image of the owner of the Kremlin, and then, clapping the knee, is surprised at the break between the fairy tale and the past. Putin has nothing to do with it. These are their thinkers, the problem is not his.

For those who look at the facts, Putin is predictable to boredom.

Two systems

He began his first presidential term with an attack on an independent TV, with the creation of federal districts, the centralization and buying up of the loyalty of the elites, primarily regional ones. We must give Putin the due: an attempt to simplify the media and administrative space of Russia and subordinate it to the Unified Center for Management was successful. The desire of our hero to concentrate power and the construction of an irremovable vertical monopoly materialized in his further steps. There are neatly such. But consistent. And there is nothing strange in this.

There are two priorities in politics.

One: citizens and territories are self -sufficient value. The task of the federal government is to provide citizens with a set of services that facilitate their lives: defense and security, protection of rights and freedoms, international relations, etc.

Another: self -sufficient value is not citizens, but, on the contrary, central power. For her, citizens and territories are a source of mobilization resources to achieve goals inaccessible to the average mind. Communism around the world, international duty, irrigation of Uzbekistan ... It does not matter.

The main thing is to have a mighty vertical structure at hand capable of prying mobilization resources from citizens and territories, supplying them in return for spiritual clarifications. Today, they say, we will tolerate, rally and overcome. But tomorrow, when finally the great task will be solved, everyone will become good. But this is tomorrow. And before that wonderful time, it will be good for those who, like a slave on a gallery, leads a process from a high tower.

When erecting vertical structures, a standard set of tools and materials is used. Spiritual scrapers; prolonged applause turning into ovation; fifth column; Wintering outraged to the core; indestructible rebuff; temporary difficulties and certain disadvantages; A sea of ​​fire and a radioactive ash.

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The vertical to the last will protect the most sacred that she has is a corporation. Which in her eyes grew together with the homeland until the concepts were completely mixed: "We will not give Moscow!"

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And upstairs as a semantic dominant is the figure of the leader. Without it you can’t! He did not seem to want to, but the very objective course of the historical process is forced to take this place. Yes, and people insist: after all, someone should lead, protect and inspire them in this difficult time, when the internal and external enemies squeeze the ring in order to enslave and destroy ... Well, further, up to the Olympic medals on the rowing on the galleys and the tug of Baumerthester. If not he, then who?!

And now the comrade got on the rails. Let's go. Where? Here without options. Two substances swell: monopoly and center. The first is to the detriment of a private initiative, the second - to the detriment of the territories. Social, economic and spatial development descends on the brakes.

But our vertical does not feel this. She is just full of feelings of deep satisfaction! She sees a treacherous conspiracy that millions of citizens and entire territories begin to drift to where there are smaller spiritual bonds, but more private initiative. And in general - salaries are higher, elections are more honest, ecology is cleaner, corruption is more modest ...

How can a vertical answer this? Not a return to these elections, free TV and economic competition. Not for that, she rebuilt for so long! No, she will shoot. Until the last, protect the most sacred that she has is a corporation. Which has grown together in her eyes - until a complete mixing of concepts: "We will not give Moscow!"

The corporation is not able to offer any special miracles, except for muzzle, salary populism and stupid propaganda. But she has a lot of the above good. She will defend her sacred borders.

Change of chips

Many, especially from among the fans of the corporation, think that there was an attack in Crimea. But there was another retreat.

Putin has just lost the battle to Ukraine, which did not believe him and, as befits a reasonable community, turned away from the taiga alliance to Europe. It's a shame, of course. Do not leave the boys just like that, without even throwing a bottle in the fraternal window!

The strategic retreat speaks of a funny somersault of TV propaganda. Six months ago, the Ukrainian people in her image were at least the youngest and stupid (without the help of Academician Glazyev, he could make out what was written in the documents of the European Union), but still a brother. And now not only not a brother, but in general, like no one. It just doesn't exist! Judging by TV, Ukraine is now in exclusively populated by Bandera, Nazis and snipers. All Russian people fled to the Crimea in horror and from there wrote a letter to the Moscow Sultan with a request to protect them from this nightmare.

The vertical sincerely holds us for idiots. I must admit, not groundlessly. She took out one chip out of the square head, where the Ukrainian brothers are eager for the delights of the taiga union; I inserted another - where there are already no states from almost 45 million citizens, but there is only Crimea from its 2 million, which are also torn ... and it works!

Knowing the gripping and jumping verticals, it is easy to estimate the further steps.

The calculations have failed

Sevastopol. Vladimir Putin on board the Moscow missile cruiser. Fine 2000

The Maximum Program-the return of Ukraine to the corporation-Putin could not implement. The “minimum program” is a split of Ukraine in half in order to take control of at least the eastern part (in their language it is indicated by the code word “federalization”)-too. He managed to catch on only the Crimea. Not the maximum, not at least - but simply an operation of cover after failure and retreat.

Will he try to take the East again? From a military geographical point of view, it would be logical. To keep the Crimean exclus without a land transport corridor, without a water and power supply system and still get an insulation of a beloved Transnistria (through it, the corporation illegally shut it up with a weapon)- all this is difficult and expensive.

Preparation for the commissioning of troops to the east of Ukraine continues. But politically, I think, it's too late. Frusted. Putin generally tries not to do what they expect from him - this allows him to consider himself smart. And then everyone is waiting - including the Ukrainian army. So I would evaluate the probability of the invasion by the numbers of his rating, turned inside out. No more than 20%. But not zero.

If there is no invasion, the point goes into the bad endgot. It is clear that chaos and tension with shooting in eastern Ukraine can still be maintained for some time. But what's next? Russia-precisely by virtue of a vertical corporate organization of political life-cannot offer an attractive economic and social model in any long run. In Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, not to mention Germany and Austria, the models are prettier.

To give a piece of money from the oil budget is yes. But not for long. And again, due to the chronic non -Domestic of the Ivanovo, Pskov or Kirov regions. How else? What will happen when the oil budget cracked? The same phenomenon expected to be too many. No, it is not interesting to transfer the game to the area of ​​long -term competition of business systems to Putin. A deliberately losing option, all the more so with the Crimean yoke on the neck, and even under sanctions. But he was counting on something when he was involved in this story. I would like to believe that something rational.

Preparation for the commissioning of troops to the east of Ukraine continues. But politically, I think, it's too late. Putin tries not to do what is expected from him

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It seems that the calculation was mainly on disarming arrogance. That the West will swallow. As Georgia has already swallowed, Khodorkovsky, Litvinenko - anything anything. And then it will be possible to ride from Lugansk to Odessa and further to the very Transnistria: walk, so walk!

However, a) the West did not swallow; b) Ukraine managed to form and put forward to the eastern border some, but still troops; c) people in eastern Ukraine (unlike Crimea) are far from being so unambiguously happy with “green little men” without insignia. Especially if they start shooting. But it will have to.

Therefore, most likely, he will remain with the Crimea, as a famous character with a written trading. By analogy with Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia. There is a lot of noise, there is little use.

For the West, this is a strategic gain: Ukraine by thinking 20 times more Crimea. In the subsequent non -western competition, the West has a victory for a clear advantage. In direct military confrontation, however, too. The boys can portray the steepness only in a very narrow corridor of possibilities, which is called “neither war, nor peace” - speculating to fight on the acute reluctance of the West.

Questions for Akla

What to expect further is clear. A clear bummer on external fronts will have to be compensated by the feverish strengthening of positions on the front fronts. So, a wave of personnel purges. You can’t feed the elite citizens of TV lap, they perfectly understand where the victory is and where is the defeat. And, entering the stormy, prolonged applause, they pretend to themselves: was Akela too often began to miss? These are very smart, young and early old Akela and will begin to bite in the near future. Most likely, under the flag of the fight against corruption.

I can console especially pluggish: until Akela removes potential seditions among the highest boyars, they will not be very offended by the lower wise men. So, according to trifles: smear in tar, dump in feathers, other friendly fun. It is impossible to take up the Hamper as an adult way, as long as the absolute loyalty of the supreme performers is not provided.

This is a program for half a year or a year. And in a longer perspective, the corporation, having met a rigid resistance on the western flank, will try to stick to the eastern one. Why, for example, not to protect the Russians in Uzbekistan, the benefit of the vacuum of power is brewing around?

Well, even further the next cycle of territorial decay is squeamish. Only six months ago, at least the theoretical opportunity to avoid it was visible. Now, after the Crimea, I'm afraid no longer. A new split will be through the civil war: they have nowhere to retreat, behind the prison. Ready for everything.

But what does Russia have to do with it?

Photo: Str/Pool/AFP/East News, Jan-Philipp Strobel/DPA/AFP/East News