In conditions of cooling relations with the West, it is especially important for Russia to enter the Chinese gas market. Beijing understands this well.

Even having seemingly won his small victorious war for Crimea, Vladimir Putin does not yet look like a winner: the economic and diplomatic cost of Russia’s expansion seems prohibitively high. Among other things, the West may try to put pressure on Putin by finding ways to reduce the supply of Russian energy resources. But the Russian budget is 48% dependent on oil and gas revenues. This dependence has not gone away since the collapse of the USSR, which, in fact, it killed.

However, Putin still has a trump card with which he can consolidate his success.

This trump card is a gas deal with China, which Gazprom and the Russian authorities have not been able to agree on for 10 years.

In fact, China really needs Russian gas. China is the world's largest consumer of energy, but only the fourth largest consumer of gas because more than two-thirds of the energy that powers the country's economy comes from coal. China burns about as much coal as the rest of the world combined. The result is an environmental disaster in industrial areas, which is easier to show with a bright picture than with any numbers.

China has a state program for converting coal into gas, but this technology is fraught with huge carbon dioxide emissions and requires water consumption that is impossible in many parts of the country. So the Chinese have no choice but to import gas (53 billion cubic meters last year). Back in 2007, they began building a pipeline from Turkmenistan through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, and now Central Asia is the largest source of imported gas for China. Another pipeline - from Myanmar - began operating last fall. The Chinese also import liquefied gas from the Gulf countries.

All this doesn't come cheap. According to the Platts agency, last year Turkmen gas cost $354 per 1,000 cubic meters, and liquefied gas cost $400.

Russia could theoretically solve all of China's problems if it had the necessary infrastructure to do so. Last year it supplied 161.5 billion cubic meters to Central and Eastern Europe - China could easily absorb all of this volume by reducing coal consumption. But there are still huge undeveloped fields - Chayandinskoye in Yakutia and Kovyktinskoye in the Irkutsk region. From them, in fact, it is planned to supply up to 35 billion cubic meters of gas per year to China over the next 30 years: this was agreed upon last year.

They just couldn't agree on the price.

There are Russian estimates of the gas price that would make the megaproject profitable - in the range from $360 to $486 per 1000 cubic meters. But the Chinese are now paying the same or less. The project will become interesting for them if Russian gas costs significantly less than liquefied gas and turns out to be better and cheaper than Turkmen gas. Industrial consumers in China receive gas at $320 per 1,000 cubic meters.

Gazprom's production cost last year was just under $47 per 1,000 cubic meters. It is clear that new pipelines will have to be repaid, and they will cost tens of billions of dollars, but the Chinese still believe that Russia is able to reduce the price, and demands $400 from them, according to European habit. In 2013, the average export price of Gazprom outside the former USSR reached $382.5.

Until now, agreements with the tight-fisted Chinese were not a priority for Russia - Europe paid a lot and regularly. Now conversations have begun about diversifying supplies, and the Americans are going to supply their liquefied gas to Europe at prices close to Gazprom’s. It is clear that changes will not happen overnight, but we must prepare for the worst in advance. The Europeans are no longer reliable partners for the Russian regime: they will do anything to buy energy resources anywhere else rather than overpay too much.

But Putin needs China not only for insurance against possible losses in Europe. To sign a mega-contract now with its eastern neighbor means to show the West the fool, to make it clear that if something happens, Russia will focus on Asia and will not lose anything. The Russian eagle has two heads, and the one that faces the West has grown disproportionately large in recent years. It's time for the second head to start strength training.

The Chinese were just waiting for this. They did not criticize Putin for Crimea, because they happily rubbed their hands: now everything will be fine with the price of gas.

Gazprom and the Ministry of Finance, which is tasked with at least looking at the option of abolishing the mineral extraction tax for fields where gas will be produced for China, are probably thinking hard now about how to “build” an acceptable price. Sources at Gazprom have already stated that progress has been made in the negotiations. The signing ceremony is needed quickly: the war continues, and we cannot go long without victories.

Crimean discount: will China achieve concessions from Gazprom?