Self -drug fuel and energy complex

EU sanctions can slow down not only new projects in the oil and gas industry of Russia, but also the modernization of existing enterprises

On Friday, July 25, the countries of the European Union instructed the European Commission to prepare the final version of the draft sanctions, which the EU may introduce in relation to individual sectors of the Russian economy. In addition to the banking sector and defense industry, European plans and technological sanctions against the fuel and energy complex of Russia. The day before, the project was discussed in Brussels at the level of official representatives of these countries in the EU.

In the Russian oil and gas complex, the share of imported equipment regarding the production of raw materials reaches 24%, and in projects on sea or oceanic shelf - almost 100%. According to Vedomosti newspaper Last Tuesday, these data of the Russian Ministry of Energy were presented for a meeting of the presidential commission for the development of the fuel and energy complex, which took place in early June. On it, by the way, the government was instructed to prepare for November 1 a program to reduce the dependence of the industries of the Russian fuel and energy complex on imports.

Possible sanctions of the European Union can affect, on the one hand, the direct supply of foreign equipment to Russia, and on the other, commercial access of Russian oil and gas companies to relevant Western technologies. Or - both.

Sakhalin. The first in Russia plant for the production of liquefied natural gas (Sakhalin-2 project). The share of imported equipment in this segment of the Russian fuel and energy complex is still almost 100%

Judging by the statements of the EU representatives, it is more about access to technology, the Alfa-Bank oil and gas analyst Alexander Kornilov believes. “But it’s hard to imagine that the restrictions would not have affected equipment supplies, especially for new projects.”

Most likely, the restrictions can affect both the supply of equipment and the provision of high -tech services, the oil and gas analyst from the Austrian Raiffeisen Austrian Bank in Moscow, Andrei Polishchuk , agrees: “And this is quite critical for Russian companies that use a lot of foreign equipment both in production and in processing”.

In the project of the EU decision on sanctions, which was discussed in Brussels last Thursday, as the British newspaper Financial Times reported, three directions were directly indicated: deep -sea drilling, geological exploration on the Arctic shelf, as well as the development of shale oil fields. At the same time, the British newspaper noted, the design of natural gas production in Russia was no longer mentioned in the discussion of the option, although in earlier versions we were talking about this.

If the starting modernization of Russian refineries due to sanctions will be frozen or delayed, this will certainly affect the volume of gasoline production in the country. They will not be reduced, but they will not grow either

All three indicated areas are precisely to new projects, in fact, without affecting (at least at the current stage of discussion), current production at traditional deposits. However, the life of any of them is limited, and the production of “mature” deposits of Western Siberia or the Volga-Ural region is already reduced, Alexander Kornilov recalls: “The idea of mastering new, non-traditional deposits proceeds from the need to gradly replacement of a natural decline in prey on the already being developed.”

For the current production at traditional deposits, the supply of new foreign equipment is not so critical-the existing one will still work out for some time, adds Andrei Polishchuk. However, in order to maintain the extraction of them, and even more so - its new expansion, which Russian companies strive for, new equipment and new technologies are needed. “And if there are no such services and new equipment, the reduction in the volume of production in mature deposits will only accelerate, and the development of new ones will have to wait longer than so far is supposed.”

According to the same data from the Russian Ministry of Energy, the share of imported equipment in the oil and gas processing sectors in the country reaches 35%, and almost 100%in the production of liquefied natural gas. And so far it is impossible to exclude that European sanctions, whether they have been imposed, can, to one degree or another, affect the supply of equipment for these industries. First of all, for oil refineries.

One of the three areas of the possible technological sanctions of the EU to the Russian fuel and energy complex is deep -sea drilling

Today, many of them are modernized, for which new foreign equipment is also required, Andrei Polishchuk continues. Having increased the depth of oil refining, companies will be able to expand the production of light oil products - gasoline or diesel fuel - and reduce the production of darker ones. First of all, fuel oil, which is mainly exported today.

“If the starting modernization of the refinery is frozen or delayed, this will certainly affect the volume of gasoline production in the country,” says Polishchuk. “They will not be reduced, but they will not grow either.”

The head of the European Commission’s energy department Gunter Ettinger has repeatedly stated that possible European sanctions should not affect the current supply of Russian energy carriers. In 2013, according to the European Commission itself, the share of Russia in the general import of oil countries amounted to one third, and 39%in the import of gas from countries that are not part of the EU.

Sama The idea of mastering new, non -traditional deposits proceeds from the need to gradually replace the natural decline in production on the already developed

However, if you do not mean pipelines, but sea transportation of oil, oil products or liquefied gas, then they can hardly affect any technological sanctions at all-simply due to the structure of the global market of these transportation. Not a single industrialized country has its own full -sized sea fleet for the transportation of energy carriers, recalls the General Director of the Russian Agency, specializing in logistics, Alexei Bezoborodov .

According to him, vessels, oil products and liquefied gas are engaged in vessels that do not go under European or American flags. They were built in China, Japan or South Korea, and for these vessels, German technologies are partly used and partly, German and Japanese money, continues the Bezborodov. “And if, for example, in Russia there is still a similar fleet - the company“ Obcoflot ”, then it also consists of 80% of the vessels built in Japan and South Korea.”

On Friday, having instructed the European Commission to prepare the draft final document on the introduction of EU sanctions in relation to certain sectors of the Russian economy, representatives of the European Union again noted that the decision itself, whether such sanctions will be imposed, has not yet been adopted. The discussion will continue next week.