Gancions 2.1

The EU and the US announced new sanctions against Russian companies and officials

The European Union (EU) has introduced today new economic sanctions against Russia. More precisely, we are talking about the expansion of previous "sector" restrictions introduced by him since the beginning of August after such measures from the United States. The most significant in the new package are focused sanctions against Russian state oil companies, as well as tightening the previous restrictions on European financial markets for Russian state banks.

Today, the United States announced new sanctions against Russia. The sanctions were introduced against the Rostekhnology Corporation and its leader Sergei Chemezov, the Mytishchi Machine -Building Plant, and the Engineering Plant named after M.I. Kalinin, Almaz-Antei, Research Institute of Instrumentation (NIIP) and Dolgoprudny Research and Production Complex. In addition, Gazprom, Gazprom-Neft, Lukoil, Transneft, Novatek, Surgutneftegaz, Sibneft and Rosneft, as well as Sberbank, Gazprombank, Rosselkhozbank, VEB and VTB were subjected to American sanctions.

In the energy sector, the object of new EU sanctions has become companies in Russia that meets three criteria. Firstly, their main shareholder is the state. Secondly, the annual turnover exceeds 1 trillion rubles (approximately $ 27 billion at the current rate). Thirdly, more than half of this turnover falls on the production or transportation of oil.

These were Rosneft, Gazprom Neft and Transneft. All these companies are now forbidden to attract debt financing in European markets (in the form of placing their shares, bonds, as well as attracting bank loans) for more than 30 days.

In addition, new sanctions are complemented by the restrictions already introduced by the European Union in the provision of new technologies or equipment for Russian companies for deep -sea oil production or shelf, as well as the shale oil on land, that is, at the moment there are only promising projects. It is supplemented by the fact that now European companies are forbidden to provide service services in the framework of such projects. Namely, for them, oil companies usually attract “long” financing - as, indeed, for servicing previously accumulated debt.

Rosneft already felt the influence of sanctions after the US financial markets actually closed for her and for NOVATEK, said Oil and gas analyst from Alfa Bank Alexander Kornilov . It recalls that Rosneft has the largest debt of $ 65 billion among Russian oil companies today. "The company has to pay $ 29 billion before the end of 2015, this is an impressive amount," Kornilov says.

Nevertheless, the EU introduced by the EU entering three Russian oil state -owned funds from European markets from European markets in their current financial activities, including debt service, is unlikely to markedly affecting, the analyst of the Standard & Poor's International rating agency Elena Anankina . According to her, the agency evaluates the liquidity of certain companies not only at least for the next 12 months, but also based on only already confirmed sources of financing. Namely, the funds on the current balance of the company, which is already contracted by the credit lines, as well as the cash flow generated by the company - taking into account the prevailing oil prices and its own investment plans.

According to our estimates, the liquidity needs of all three of these companies are closed for the next year, says Anankina. According to her, we are first of all about the means that these companies have already have today. For example, there is almost $ 10 billion on Transneft's balance sheet, while short -term debts are about $ 3 billion. The Gazprom Neft for debt obligations for the next year amounts to less than $ 2 billion, while the disposable funds on the balance of the company are almost $ 4.5 billion.

The largest payments for debts are coming to Rosneft, the S&P analyst agrees, as the deadlines for repaying some debt obligations that arose in the framework of attracting funds to finance the recent purchase of the oil company TNK-Br. However, Rosneft not only has $ 20 billion, but its current turnover is large than recently expected, says Elena Anankina. This is due to both favorable oil prices, and with the fact that the company's real investments turned out to be less than previously declared. "Therefore, in general, for the next year, we do not expect big problems with liquidity with liquidity for all three companies."

For Rosneft, the largest production volumes in Russia, the consequences of new sanctions can manifest itself, more likely to reduce their own investment plans, Alexander Kornilov agrees. It recalls that the annual volumes of Rosneft investment amount to about $ 20 billion, the company has many projects both in oil production and its processing, which, in turn, are related to many other Russian companies. “It is possible that now these plans will have to somehow be reviewed,” Kornilov believes.

The adjustment of investment plans, the analyst believes, may also be required by the state company Transneft, which owns all the main oil pipelines of Russia. The company has two large new pipeline projects aimed at delivering raw materials to the VSU oil pipeline (Eastern Siberia - the Pacific Ocean): one from the polar deposits, the other from the East Siberian ones. “It is possible that due to the restrictions on attracting the debt financing of Transneft, it will be necessary to somehow move these projects,” Alexander Kornilov suggests. “Moreover, both are largely tied to the plans of the oil companies themselves to launch new deposits. Accordingly, if they have to revise their own plans, then Transneft will not remain anything else, as well as transfer the terms of construction of these oil pipelines ".

However, the direct influence of the next sanctions may be less than their influence indirect - and not only for companies, sanctions raised directly. In our opinion, “reputation” risks for Russian companies today are more important than what is directly prescribed in new sanctions, notes Elena Anankina. The former point restrictions concerned only two Russian companies in this sector and only in relation to the US market . "Nevertheless, we see a very significant drop in the volume and placement of Eurobligations by Russian companies as a whole, and syndicated loans that they attract abroad. This is what seems to us today the main risk."

According to Standard & Poor's, the total volume of Eurobonds located by Russian companies in the first half of the year turned out to be 14 times smaller than in the first six months of last year - only $ 1.6 billion against 23 billion a year earlier. And the volume of syndicated loans attracted by them (provided by the borrower with more than one bank, but a group of banks) decreased by almost two and a half times - from $ 24 billion to less than 10 billion.

Since the beginning of August, the EU introduced a ban on the provision of five Russian state -owners (Sberbank, VTB, VEB, Gazprombank and Rosselkhozbank) of debt financing (through their shares or bonds) for more than 90 days in Europe. This time, the term is reduced already to 30 days, at the same time extending a new restriction to the three above oil companies.

The external debt market was one of the key sources of long -term funding for Russian banks, since “long” money is not so accessible in the Russian market, especially given the slowdown of private contributions, as well as the termination of pension accumulation receipts, the analyst of the Austrian Raiffeisen Bank Denis Porn .

According to him, after the EU introduced a 90-day restriction, Russian banks actually switched to short-term financing tools-mainly with terms from one day to one week. “Therefore, if now the deadline for financing in the EU markets is reduced to 30 days, this will no longer have a noticeable effect on the Russian banking system,” Denis Porusai predicts.

“In addition, the Russian state -owned banks that fell under the sanctions of the EU, for the current refinancing of certain “ long ”loans, requires very moderate amounts, especially this year,” adds the banking analyst of the Uralsib Capital investment company Natalia Berezina . “Therefore, they apparently fully cope with the help of short -term instruments, and at the same time turn, if possible, to funding in rubles ".