Translated material
Ten to one
The devaluation of the ruble accelerates inflation less than a couple of years ago, otherwise the price increase could go off the way
The "contribution" of the ruble devaluation to the acceleration of consumer prices in Russia in 2014 will be more than a quarter (2.4% of 9%), and by the end of the next year, the already consistent fall in the course "will ensure" about half of the inflation (3.2% of 7.5%). Such estimates from the updated macrogenosis of the Ministry of Economic Development for 2014-2015, presented last Tuesday, led the Vedomosti newspaper . Slow down price growth is still expected no earlier than the second quarter of 2015.
“The main prerequisites for our September forecast were high prices for oil and the lifting of sanctions by mid -2015,” said the next forecast of the department, Deputy Minister of Economic Development Alexei Vedaev . “Now we mean that the sanctions are preserved throughout 2015. This means the closeness of foreign capital markets for most Russian companies and banks, as well as an unpleasant term for investments - this. Uncertainty and uncertainty. "
The weakening of the ruble exchange rate for every 10% leads to an increase in inflation in the country to one percentage point
The ministry immediately by 20% - from 100 to 80 dollars per barrel - reduced the previous forecast for the average oil price in 2015. And the average annual exchange rate of the Russian currency for the dollar now submits to the department of 49 rubles.
Against the backdrop of a cool fall in recent months (from the now -forgotten level of 32.65 rubles per dollar as of January 1, 2014), the pace of importing imports into the country that began last year has noticeably accelerated. By the end of the first half of the year, its volumes, according to Rosstat, decreased by 5% to the level of the first six months of 2013, and by the end of October - by 6.3% to the level of ten months a year earlier. This dynamics reflected not only the overall rise in import of imports due to the reduction in the reduction of the ruble , but also the factor of using the reserves accumulated earlier in the economy - sooner or later exhausted.
Initial import substitution
The total share of imports in the Russian market (both food and non-food products) is approximately 25-28%, said Oleg Kuzmin , the chief economist for Russia Renaissance Capital. Although in individual groups of goods it may differ ten times. For example, in beef, the share of imports is about 60%, while in flour - only 3%. At the levels corresponding to this ratio, a certain “inflationary response” was formed in situations of significant ruble devaluation.
It is partly smoothed out by the fact that companies can limit its form, switching, if there is such an opportunity , Kuzmin continues to Russian counterparts more affordable at prices. In addition, in the context of a slowdown in general growth, both the economy and consumer demand can no longer, as before, overpass a significant share of their costs that have grown due to the fall of the ruble exchange rate to the consumer. It also restrains the overall rise in prices in the country.
The reasons for this Russian phenomenon can be argued, but most likely it stems from strengthening the ruble due to high oil prices
On the other hand, he was accelerated by Russian counter -sanctions. According to Renaissance Capital, in those categories of goods that were banned for imports, the share of supplies from the European Union is about 20%. Accordingly, we can say that the offer of such goods was simultaneously reduced by these same 20%, Oleg Kuzmin explains, and their replacement in the Russian market, due to domestic or other foreign analogues, will take time.
According to the products that fell under Russian counter -sanctions, the volumes of imports, according to the customs service, were reduced very significantly: by one by 20%, by another by 50%or even 70%, which, in fact, is equivalent to a reduction in the supply of food, which causes rising prices, the chief economist of the Uralsib Capital investment company Alexei Devyatov agrees. Moreover, according to his estimates, many of those products that are now replaced by “prohibited” goods from Europe are ultimately more expensive.
But in general, the devaluation of the ruble is manifested in the current increase in prices in the country only with a certain lag-from one or two months to six months, recalls the chief economist of the Research Institute "Development Center" of the Higher School of Economics Valery Mironov . Against the background of high or relatively high inflation over the past quarter century, Russian companies are used to accumulating considerable reserves of imported products in order to be able to maneuver in the next increase in purchase prices due to the weakening of the ruble. Therefore, according to Mironov, the majority of Russian experts today converge in the fact that the peak of the current acceleration of prices in the country is most likely to be for the first quarter or first half of 2015, after which we can expect a certain slowdown in inflation.
Now, if the ruble rate falls, companies are transferred to the final consumer 2-3 times less than their costs associated with devaluation than it was five years ago
Of course, the replacement of the former import of Russian products - similar, but inferior in quality, continues and will expand, Valery Mironov continues. Such a process is usually called "initial import substitution." But this is possible only in those segments of the economy where capacities are created that can compete with foreign, although not in full and mainly in lower price categories. For example, the ban on importing quality cheeses from Europe led to the fact that even relatively wealthy consumers in Russia began to buy Russian counterparts, albeit inferior to European quality.
The same can happen on the automobile market. Russian consumers who were going to purchase a new foreign car for 600-700 thousand rubles (about 11-13 thousand dollars at the current exchange rate.-RS) , in conditions when this price could soon approach one million rubles (18 thousand dollars), will buy AvtoVAZ products, continues Mironov. "The problem, however, is that there are very few such competitive capacities in the Russian economy, and they could not expand due to the total reduction in the country of internal investment : by 0.3-0.4% in 2013 and more than 2.5% already accumulated."
The Ministry of Economic Development predicts the decline in investment of Russian companies and enterprises in its own development by 2.8% in 2014 and by 3.5% in 2015.
Statistics and price tags
The current growth rate of consumer prices in Russia , reflected by the statistics of Rosstat, may significantly differ from the representations of people based on the next visit to the nearest store. Official statistics determine a certain “average temperature in the hospital,” says Alexey Devyatov, which includes non -food goods, services, and food.
For certain components of the overall consumer inflation, the current price growth rate may vary greatly. In recent months, the "contribution" to it has significantly increased by the growth in food prices, which also manifested the effect of measures to limit imports. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, represented on Thursday, the increase in prices for all food products in Russia as of November 24 amounted to 12.2% of the level of the same day a year earlier. At the same time, the cost of food products from the "sanctions" list increased by 5.8%. And only for the period from August 1, the increase in prices for all food categories in Russia amounted to an average of 3.8%.
And the export of country oil now brings less money to the economy than before, and domestic financing is more expensive for Russian companies
At the same time, in November, only on the average of Russia was noted in November, only 54.4%in Russia, Rosstat said on Thursday. Tomatoes went up for a month by 34.9%, cabbage - by 24.4%, potatoes - by 12.6%, while pork, on the contrary, fell into an average of 1.5%.
It should be borne in mind the different structure of consumption of different population groups, continues Alexei Devyatov. "Less wealthy families spend a significantly larger part of their income on food than the families are more secured. Accordingly, this share, and the general inflation in the country seems different to different consumer groups in comparison with the average indicator called official statistics."
The consumer mainly draws attention to the change in prices of the most significant categories of goods or services for him, not particularly noticing how the price tags of other components of the general inflation index are changing, Oleg Kuzmin agrees. The index takes into account both.
Five years ago, the weakening of the ruble by 10% led to the acceleration of inflation in the country by 2.5-3 percentage points at once
Finally, the very methodology for calculating the consumer inflation index is by no means universal and may noticeably differ from the country to the country. For example, in some Western countries, a change in the performance of a particular product may also be applied to it, the price of which is taken into account in the index, Kuzmin explains. In this case, if the price of, say, a computer processor for a certain period of time has increased four times, but the processor itself has become twice as productive, then the consumer price index will reflect an increase in its price only twice, and not by four.
“In general, the index of Russian consumer inflation , which is calculated by Rosstat, seems to us quite adequate and representative,” says Renaissance Capital, chief economist of the company.
Transfer effect
Since the beginning of the year, the official ruble exchange rate to the dollar decreased by December 5 by 61%. At the same time, the annual pace of consumer inflation in the country accelerated from 6.1% in January to 8.5% to the beginning of December (reported on Wednesday Rosstat), that is, by 40%, or one and a half times less than the ruble depreciated. If we count from the dollar, that is, the ruble loss of its previous value in relation to it, then the weakening of the Russian currency since the beginning of the year was the same 40%. However, the already held devaluation is only one of the factors of internal inflation, and the peak of its influence on the growth of domestic prices has not yet come.
Last Monday, at a seminar with vice-governors on domestic politics and social sphere, the First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Ksenia Yudaeva performed. She talked about switching a part of demand for domestic goods, that the currencies of Russia's trading partners also fell to the dollar, which also reduces inflationary pressure on Russian prices.
Now we mean that the sanctions are preserved throughout 2015
In addition, according to Ksenia Yudaeva, some Russian importers either do not increase prices, fearing the loss of the market share, or increase them disproportionately to falling the ruble. “Therefore, the so-called effect of transferring the rate to prices is now 0.1-0.12%,” continued the first deputy chairman of the Central Bank, “that is, the weakening of the course for every 10% leads to an increase in inflation on one percentage point.”
Such an assessment is in principle close to ours, notes Alexei Devyatov. The company "Uralsib Capital" believes that the weakening of the ruble by 10% now leads to acceleration of inflation by 1.5 percentage points. Renaissance Capital’s own estimates practically coincide with the estimates of the Bank of Russia-1-1.2 percentage point for every 10% weakening of the ruble.
Many of those products that are now replaced by “prohibited” goods from Europe are ultimately more expensive
At the same time, Oleg Kuzmin draws attention to the fact that over the past five years, the effect of transferring devaluation to the current growth rate of consumer prices in Russia has significantly reduced. "Back in 2008-2009, the weakening of the ruble for every 10% led to additional acceleration of inflation in the country by 2.5-3 percentage points at once."
In the period until 2008, when the exchange rate of the ruble was actually fixed, the calculation chains in the Russian economy were largely oriented precisely on currency, Oleg Kuzmin explains. In the last five years, when the Bank of Russia has moved to the policy of the “controlled swimming” of the ruble and the fluctuations of its course became much more significant, the same calculation chains became more “ruble”.
“In other words, now, if the ruble rate falls, the companies are transferred to the final consumer 2-3 times less than their costs associated with devaluation than it was before,” says Kuzmin. “These additional costs are usually redistributed today between the companies that are interconnected by contracts oriented to prices not in dollars, but in rubles.”
The peak of the current acceleration of prices in the country is most likely to be for the first quarter or first half of 2015
The classic mechanism is a higher inflation, if it is caused by monetary factors, inevitably leads to a weakening of the national currency - in the case of Russia is ambiguous, adds Alexei Devyatov. On the one hand, Russian inflation of recent years has been determined, rather, by non -monetary factors - whether it is a periodic indexation of tariffs for housing and communal services or restriction of food imports .
On the other hand, the course of the Russian currency back in July of this year was at levels that were very close to those noted more than 10 years ago, in 2003-32-33 rubles per dollar. However, over the years, consumer prices in the country have increased on average more than four times, nine continues. "The reasons for this Russian phenomenon can be argued, but most likely it stems from strengthening the ruble due to high oil prices for most of the last decade."
For the Russian economy, as a raw material economy, and the transition to the inflation targeting policy and the “floating” ruble rate , and the reduction of the effect of transferring its devaluation to the increase in prices has both their advantages and disadvantages, Valery Mironov notes. As in other raw material economies, prices in Russia are growing especially actively when raw materials are cheaper in the world, in this case, energy carriers.
At this time, the real sector of the economy , on the one hand, encounters a shock from reducing prices for exported raw materials. But since the national currency is falling at the same time, the very internal prices that the Central Bank intend to “target” are growing.
“And if at this moment the bank increases interest rates, thereby increasing the costs in the economy in order to restrain the price of prices, then the blow to the real sector is double,” Mironov explains. “And the export of country oil brings it less money than before, and domestic financing is more expensive for Russian companies.”