The vision of the president

Petro Poroshenko reported to the parliament on work after his election and outlined Ukraine for the next year

On the seventh of June, a year has expired from the moment of the entry of Petro Poroshenko’s post of President of Ukraine. On Thursday, the head of the Ukrainian state, speaking in the Verkhovna Rada with a message to parliament, gave assessments to this period and spoke about his vision of solving key political and economic problems of Ukraine.

In his more than sentry speech, Poroshenko often mentioned the conflict in the Donbass. The authors of the Novorossiya project , according to the President of Ukraine, put a grave plate over it, nevertheless, the “threat of continuing the occupation by the Russian army and its mercenaries of new Ukrainian territories remains,” Petro Poroshenko said from the parliamentary rostrum.

“There is a colossal threat to the resumption of hostilities by Russian terrorist groups. Now there are 14 Russian battalion-tactical groups in Ukraine, with a total number of exceeding nine thousand military personnel. The concentration of Russian military near the Ukrainian border is one and a half times more than a year ago. The so-called“ Rosvoenttorg ”continues to be supplied to the territory of the Donbass not only of ammunition, not only ammunition, Food and fuel products, but also the most modern weapons and the most modern military equipment, ”the Ukrainian leader stated.

On June 3, in the conflict zone, they indicate in Kyiv, the separatists began an attack on the position of Ukrainian troops. Fierce battles unfolded, in particular, around Maryinka near Donetsk. So far, the escalations of the conflict have been avoided. According to the director of the Kiev Center for Middle Eastern Studies by Igor Semivolos , the Kremlin is unlikely to now decide to hold a full -scale offensive in the Donbass with the participation of regular troops:

- The format of the war that the Kremlin elected is quite difficult to transfer to the format of open military aggression with the invasion of the divisions of the Russian army. Within the framework of the hybrid war, attempts can be made to break through the defense, to ensure an advantage in certain sections of the front and force Ukraine to go to the agreements unprofitable for it. But, obviously, the pause that arose after Minsk-2, after signing new documents by resolving the conflict, Ukraine used quite successfully. We now have both a long -term defense, and the coordinated interaction of the military of the troops. This allows us to say that such an offensive or his attempt will not be successful now.

Speaking in the Rada, Petro Poroshenko said: the level of defense capabilities of Ukraine is still minimal, to increase the authorities will increase military expenses. Responding to the reproaches of politicians: why still has not been introduced in the country martial law, which in particular censorship, commandant hour and the ban on parties, - the president said that Ukraine wants to "remain a democratic country and not become a victim of Russia."

As one of the leaders of the Parliamentary faction “Fatherland” Sergey Sobolev notes, in general, he is satisfied with the president’s speech and his statements by key gaps in Ukraine:

- The performance is quite diverse. There is such a good Ukrainian word “soil” (“ thorough”. - RS ). Poroshenko touched on many points that are really the most important and burning for Ukraine. I see that the president has both desire and political will for political, economic and military reforms. Can these reforms carry out the current Ukrainian government? I am not ready to answer this question, but the fact that the president will not stop and will continue to achieve serious changes is no doubt.

The president in his speech hinted that as the head of the Ukrainian police would like to see not the current head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Arsen Avakov, but his deputy, Georgian ECU ZGULULDZA. In addition, Poroshenko stated in the Rada that from now on the “monopoly and blackmail of the Russian Gazprom” the end is laid to the end and Ukraine already has more than 10 gas suppliers from the European Union countries. These words of the president are commented by the co -chair of the Energy Strategies of the Dmitry Marunich Foundation:

- We can confidently say: gas import from the territory of the Russian Federation will significantly decrease immediately for a number of subjective and objective reasons. The subjective reason is that Ukraine increased reverse supplies, although their prices exceeded Gazprom supplies. The objective reason concerns a decrease in the volume of Russian gas supplies to Ukraine, caused by the stopping of large industrial enterprises, hostilities in the Donbass and, in general, “squeezing” the national economy. Any diversification, if it is economically justified, should lead to a decrease in the price, but from the second quarter we have reverse dynamics. Nevertheless, Ukraine continues to buy significant volumes of gas from the EU countries. From a political point of view, this corresponds to the plans of the Ukrainian leadership, but the end consumer pays for this. If the president and the government believe that voters are waiting for this, then I think they are mistaken.

The performance in the Verkhovna Rada was the first regular report of the head of the Ukrainian state before parliament and society. The director of the Kiev Center for Applied Political Research "Penta" , political analyst Vladimir Fesenko answers questions from Radio Liberty.

- The format of the President’s message involves a report on the simultaneous designation of priorities for the next year. What I liked in today's message is the self -criticism and realism of assessments. Sometimes Poroshenko is inclined to emotional promises that are not always possible to fulfill quickly. He has such a sin. This time, it seems to me, he acted realistically and self -critical, clearly fixing that not everything managed to do, that there are miscalculations. The emphasis has been placed on the need to carry out reforms, activate the fight against corruption, activate the reforms, and I think this is also a correct strategic assessment. I think that in the coming year, not only for the government, but also for the president, the resumption of economic growth and demonstration to the population of real results will be critical. If this does not happen, not only the government, but also the president will be under a serious blow.

- It seemed to me that Poroshenko once again asked the Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian political class to wait. The president said: yes, the reforms seem to be started, but you need to wait. He even used a gastronomic term-some dishes are already in the furnace, for others the ingredients have already been collected, and for some, the recipe has not been selected. Is there any reason to believe that Poroshenko will soon bake all these dishes?

Ukraine is not Georgia, and wait for the fact that in a year or two by 180 degrees everything will change, it is unrealistic

- Well, not all results can be seen quickly. The President realistically assesses the situation, because the population has many high expectations. It is hardly possible to expect quick results in the fight against corruption. Ukraine is not Georgia, and wait for everything in a year or two by 180 degrees everything will change is unrealistic. Those who think so do not understand the specifics of Ukraine and the whole complexity of the situation with corruption. It seems to me that Poroshenko understands this better than many, so he does not make any broadcast statements. At the same time, it is necessary to “look for” reforms by which you can show the result during the year, we must think about the tactics of reforms, about the information work to ensure reform. This is primarily the task of the government, but what the president says about it means: he understands all the risks of the situation.

- One of the postulates of Poroshenko’s strategy is the so -called deoligarchization, the fight against monopolism in the economy, with large businessmen who convert economic influence into a political resource. What are the chances of Poroshenko in this struggle, what do you think?

The question of deoligarchization will inevitably pose questions to the president himself

-Again, it is very important that this struggle has begun. And it is very significant how Poroshenko leads it. He is not Saakashvili, he does not rush with a saber in a cavalry attack, trying to disperse everyone, he acts quite carefully, but sequentially. Last year, for example, there were no attacks on the oligarchs, on the contrary, a tactical union was concluded with some. The difficulty of the situation in the country and the war in the East pushed this: to open the “second front” would be politically extremely risky. And this year, Poroshenko decided to restrict the influence of the oligarchs in situations when, let's say, the oligarchs themselves behaved brazenly, especially Igor Kolomoisky . Actually, Kolomoisky began to put forward ultimatums and behaved, to put it mildly, incorrectly against the state - not to Poroshenko, but to the state. Therefore, Poroshenko had to put him in place. Then, in the same way, he had to put in place in the energy sector of Rinat Akhmetov, then the line reached Dmitry Firtash.

But this is only the beginning of the process, and deoligarchization is not the interest of Poroshenko personally, this is the interest of the state as such, it is a request from public opinion. Another thing (and it seems to me that Poroshenko begins to understand this) that the question of deoligarchization will inevitably pose questions to the president himself. He promised to sell his business at one time. I think that it was a slightly emotional, hasty promise, because Poroshenko will not take his business to Poroshenko, no one would take his business for a good price in such conditions, and preservation of business in the hands of the president will inevitably provoke criticism. But in any case, the fact that the restriction of the influence of the oligarchs in the economy and in politics occurs, in my opinion, is a positive trend. It is important to understand: there will be no dispossession of the oligarchs, their liquidation as a class, because it would be too risky in the conditions of confrontation with Russia. Therefore, in this direction, Poroshenko will most likely act flexibly. It seems to me that his style is to avoid excessive risks, to go forward, but so as not to create additional problems for himself.

- How will you evaluate the position of the President of Ukraine in matters of relations with Russia?

- Poroshenko and in this regard performed quite realistic. He, in particular, noted that the level of defense capability of Ukraine remains insufficient. Progress is obvious compared to what happened a year ago, Ukraine can now resist the aggressor. But in general, the level of defense capacity is insufficient, efforts must be increased, tripled: this applies to providing military equipment, and the combat effectiveness of the army, and reforming the armed forces.

Flexibility in difficult matters is Poroshenko's style. Maybe this sometimes leads to the highest pace of transformation, but this is the president's style. He does not want to take excessive

I would not talk about a decrease in tension in relations with Russia - on the contrary, Poroshenko emphasized that the risks of escalation of the conflict are preserved, the risks of new aggression from Russia are preserved. It seems to me that Poroshenko does not speak in public speeches, because he perfectly understands, judging by the context of some of his statements, that the implementation of the Minsk agreements in full, especially in their political unit, is unlikely. At the same time, Ukraine will not go to the implementation of the Russian version of these agreements, and if Kyiv refuses concessions to Moscow and separatists, it means that there is a risk of a new attack from Russia. And this Poroshenko understands this very well, and he said about this today in the message: one must be prepared for the new attack of Russia.

The president explained why it is not worth playing with the military situation now - from the point of view of limiting democracy in the country, from the point of view of our foreign policy interests and not to provoke a new wave of conflict in relations with Russia. This flexibility in such complex issues is also the style of Poroshenko. Maybe this sometimes leads to the highest pace of transformation (and this, by the way, Poroshenko also recognizes), but this is the president's style. He does not want to take it overly.

- What do you think today: a year ago, having voted for Poroshenko (and I recall, he very convincingly won the first round), Ukraine made the right choice?

- "Rather, yes" - I use the answer that is present in sociological profiles. Its activity should be evaluated not in absolute categories, but taking into account alternatives. A year ago, Poroshenko was the main competitor Yulia Tymoshenko. Most voted for Poroshenko, not because they had any illusions, the hopes that Poroshenko would solve all the problems. Many voted for him because Tymoshenko and other candidates preferred him. Poroshenko's rating has fallen over the past year. But in Ukraine this trend is natural - all the predecessors of Poroshenko had a significant fall in the rating, and about two times, the current president did not escape this. At the same time, he remains a politician who has the highest level of trust among the population. Again-taking into account alternatives: citizens do not yet see an effective alternative to the current president. Here is a lot of criticism to the prime minister. Poroshenko is also criticized, but at the same time there is a pragmatic recognition: while he is in his place, and there is no alternative yet, ”said Kiev political expert Vladimir Fesenko.

Fragment of the final issue of the Freedom Time program