Has the X hour arrived?

The Russian Air Force attacked the suburbs of Homs, CNN reported.

On September 30, the Federation Council of the Russian Federation considered and unanimously approved President Vladimir Putin's request for the use of Russian troops abroad. The head of the Kremlin administration, Sergei Ivanov, has already explained: this is an operation to support the Russian Air Force in the Syrian sky in response to a request from President Bashar al-Assad, and also based on "Russian national interests." We are not talking about the use of ground troops, Ivanov stressed. Earlier, Vladimir Putin, in an interview with American journalist Charles Rose for CBS and PBS, said the same thing - “our servicemen will not directly take part in hostilities,” meaning “combat operations on the territory, infantry, motorized units”

* * This is not the first time that Vladimir Putin has asked for the right to use troops abroad. Previously, the president received such permission last year, for the period from March 1 to June 25, 2014, during the annexation of Crimea to Russia and the start of hostilities in eastern Ukraine. .

Deputy Director of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis Alexander Khramchikhin does not consider the decision of the Council of Defense unexpected. “Actually, our forces are already there (

in Syria. - NT ) are, and this has long been well known. What is the secret here? the expert asked rhetorically in a conversation with NT . “In this case, trying to keep a secret would be somewhat stupid and even dangerous - after all, it is clear that some kind of coordination with the Americans is needed in order not to at least interfere with each other.”

Who is more legitimate In the same interview with Charles Rose, Vladimir Putin emphasized that military assistance in the fight against IS "can and should be provided exclusively to legitimate governments of certain countries, with their consent or at their request." According to Sergei Ivanov, just at the request of Bashar al-Assad, whose regime is supported by Russia, Putin turned to the Federation Council. Russia considers Assad’s army (and, with certain reservations, the Kurdish militia) the only legitimate armed force in Syria, therefore, from the Kremlin’s point of view, military support for the current regime in Damascus is also the only legitimate one under the current conditions. But the actions of France, which launched an air strike on the positions of the Islamic State a day ago (

group banned in Russia. ) without the consent of Assad lie outside the international legal field, which was not slow to draw the attention of the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova. Nevertheless, Moscow will have to reckon with the fact that the US-led international antiterrorist coalition consists of 60 states, and two days ago it was joined by Nigeria, Tunisia and Malaysia. At the same time, the argument that the coalition is supposedly acting without the permission of Damascus does not work well: it is known that in a number of cases Damascus just gave its consent to the operation against IS through the Iraqi authorities.

One way or another, Russia can only take credit for the agreement of the new Iraqi cabinet of Haider al-Abadi to set up a coordination center in Baghdad to exchange intelligence and operational-tactical data with Moscow and Tehran. By the way, at a meeting with Putin on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, Al-Abadi confirmed Baghdad’s readiness for close cooperation with Moscow in the fight against ISIS, and this is a significant trump card in Putin’s hands: unlike his predecessor Nuri Al-Maliki, Al-Abadi is also a Shia and enjoys much greater prestige among Sunnis and Kurds.

Why now? The question that arises by itself: why did Putin apply to the Federation Council with a request only now, given that Russian combat aircraft have been deployed at bases near Latakia for at least 10 days, and the operation to transfer additional weapons and instructors to the Syrian coast began almost a month ago. There can be only one answer: Putin did not want a new international crisis following the example of the Ukrainian one and wanted to get carte blanche from the Americans. Moreover, in order to avoid omissions, to get it at the highest level, otherwise Moscow was quite satisfied with the “constructive conversation” almost two weeks ago between the head of the Pentagon Carter and the head of the Russian Defense Ministry Shoigu, during which the latter, according to sources, made it clear: Russia will bomb ISIS, providing a counteroffensive for Assad's troops, but first would like to coordinate with the Americans, whose planes are already flying in the Syrian sky, all technical issues related to mutual identification.

On September 28, at the Obama-Putin meeting in New York, such a carte blanche was received: yes, the United States is against Assad and wants him to leave, but at this stage, the destruction of ISIS is the number one goal.

On the morning of September 30, it became known that Russia demanded that coalition aircraft, including the US Air Force, stop all reconnaissance flights in the sky over the provinces of Aleppo and Idlib. The signal has been given: we are ready to begin.

According to Alexander Khramchikhin, the US position on Syria has begun to change, although there is no need to wait for a cardinal change: the Americans will insist on Assad's departure. But this “does not affect Moscow in any way”: “The decision to fight has been made, and we will not fight in the same coalition with the Americans, at best we will simply somehow coordinate our actions with them.”

Who will we hit? Russian aviation, Alexander Khramchikhin is convinced, will inflict a “very tangible blow” on ISIS positions. At the same time, the expert does not exclude that the air strike will be followed by a “large-scale ground operation”: “Russian forces in this conflict, unlike Western ones, are aimed at the real success of their operation.” And success in this case is the collapse of all opposition forces to Bashar al-Assad present on the territory of Syria: the Islamic State, the An-Nusra Front, “moderate Islamists”, the secular opposition and the Kurds, Khramchikhin believes.

At the same time, Syrian political scientist Haytham Baderkhan doubts that ISIS is the primary military target for Moscow and Damascus: “Assad’s forces have recently been defeated precisely in Latakia, which the Alawites consider their stronghold. And it was not ISIS that struck at them, but the Free Syrian Army.” According to the political scientist, ISIS is under the control of Assad's military intelligence, and it is not difficult for him to put an end to the so-called "caliphate". His primary goal is to defeat other forces, including the moderate opposition. And if Moscow’s help is actually intended precisely for this, then a “small victorious war” will not work: “After the Afghan war, Russia risks falling into the Syrian trap.”

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