Beautiful to leave

I remembered the expression Exit Strategy well, thanks to the series "Western Wing". In general, as one smart person said, it is not a problem to come beautifully, the problem is beautiful to leave. True, he said this in relation to the exhausted personal relations. In relation to war, this rule is quite suitable and called a strategy. If you get involved in a military confrontation, it would be better to understand exactly how and at what point to get out of it. If you are forced to fight on your territory, then it is more or less clear that it is the ending. If this is someone else's war, especially in the Middle East, in which you decided to intervene for some reason, then it is better to have an Exit Strategy -output strategy. And here I have a question: what is this very “strategy for the release” of Russia from the intra -Syrian conflict, in which President Putin pulled his country so unexpectedly and to universal surprise.

In tactics, I have no questions: the entire aviation Russian “Battle for Damascus” has the only goal - to satisfy the ego and the interests of one person. Against the backdrop of the fading anti -Ukrainian patriotic fucker in the country and the masking Minsk negotiations, against the backdrop of sanctions, a crisis and falling oil prices, against the backdrop of an steady continuing investigation on the downed Malaysian Boeing, against the backdrop of Putin’s disconnection from influential geopolitical world clubs, the Russian leader returned to the fact that "before the oil" was "before oil" The main scarecrow of the USSR is actually to weapons.

Putin chose a power option in world policy, not even understanding, judging by his recent interview, Solovyov , who are Sunnis and Shiites and that they cannot divide in the territory in which he is now experiencing Russian missiles. All stories about the fight against the Islamic State on Syrian land are bluff. There are two tasks: to become an international player again, with whom it is impossible to reckon with, and protect his own future, protecting Assad, whom no one is going to defend (with rare exceptions). The expression "legally elected president" became a meme in the lips of the Russian president. As a person who leads the country where the elections are happening as they are happening, Putin has long been in the bad company of odious leaders, some of which parted with his life in front of his eyes. After all, they were also “legally chosen” a hundred and even more percentage of votes within the framework of the system that they themselves organized for a complete, final and eternal victory. This scares Putin, because the circle of such leaders narrows, their time remains in the past. And therefore, as in that joke, take care of Assad, otherwise they will come for you tomorrow.

Putin clearly expected that, showing his own determination to act in an ultimatic form as he sees fit, he would force the anti -Asadian coalition to return Russia to a political pool, at least the one that resolves the situation around Syria

Russia makes aircraft and missile strikes on the territory of Syria. Question: How long did the Russian Supreme Commander -in -Chief intended to continue this? Judging by the size of the territory controlled by the Assad regime, and that much larger that is not controlled by it, but is partially controlled by the opposition and partially “IG”, this story is not a couple of weeks. For a couple of weeks, Assad will not restore control of the country. I believe that after the first massive strokes, Putin was counting on the beginning of a political dialogue with another coalition, which did not support the current Syrian leader. But there is no such dialogue. There are contacts between the military, because the last thing the world needs is the clash of the American or any other allied aircraft with the Russian in the sky over Syria. Or another catastrophe like the Malaysian Boeing. Therefore, the military make contact, from time to time fixing the dangerous rapprochement of Russian aircraft with American ones. But Dmitry Medvedev, the premiere of Washington, unequivocally wrapped an unequivocally. Firstly, today Dmitry Medvedev is not the person with whom serious politicians are ready to talk (I don’t know if Putin had a calculation that Obama and Medvedev had a warm relationship at one time, or Putin was simply afraid to get a refusal and put forward Medvedev-if they were humiliated, then not him, Putin). Secondly, the West may be quite cynically interested in Russia that Russia is as deep as possible in Syria, remembering how the Soviet campaign ended to Afghanistan.

Putin clearly hoped that, showing his own determination to act in an ultimatum form as he sees fit - in any region of the world and demonstrating new missiles - he would force the anti -Asadian coalition to return Russia to a political pool, at least the one that runs the situation around Syria. It is difficult to say whether he thought at the moment when he authorized Syria bombing, about the reverse effect and strengthening of the risks of terrorist attacks by the Islamic State in Russia. Is Putin sure of the readiness of Russian law enforcement agencies and special services to cope with such a danger? Having the tragic experience that we have, I personally are not sure of this.

There is no clear answer to the question of what was the strategy of leaving this alien war. He did not sound in any interview with Vladimir. It is not clear where there is the end point, the limit and the terms for which the Russian operation is designed to save the unopened Assad. Most likely, a possible output point has already been passed - with Washington’s refusal to conduct political negotiations with Medvedev. Putin has a chance to step on the throat of his own pride and offer Obama a new meeting. Let me remind you, however, that it was after their last, very recent meeting that the Russian president defiantly began a military operation, which caused and causes a negative reaction of the most powerful countries in the region and the countries of the Western coalition. However, it is also possible that the Russian president understood: they will not meet with Medvedev, and now he simply accumulates arguments in defense of his own position. There were two arguments until yesterday: the first - we offer them a coalition, and they prefer their coalition without us, the second - you say, we will bomb not “IG”, but the opposition, then give your data where they are bombing, but they do not give. And now: we offer America political negotiations on Syria, but they do not want. The accumulation of this kind of arguments (effective to some extent only within Russia, especially if they do not explain why they don’t want and why they don’t give it) rather talks about the continuation strategy and, possibly, expanding the operation, rather than the strategy of withdrawal from it.

Is it possible to just take from Monday the participation of the Russian military in the Syrian operation? Choose such a simple Exit Strategy ? Of course, but then it is not at all clear what it was. And the propaganda effect of our so -called war with terrorism for domestic consumption bursts like a soap bubble.

If President Putin hoped to blackmail the West, exchange for something the Russian military presence in Syria for something, he chose the wrong tactics. If the West does not go to political cooperation and is ready not to interfere with Putin to stretch out in Syria, increasing military spending by reducing the budget for doctors, teachers and doctors, then he also made a mistake in the strategy. Russia has neither military forces nor funds to sit in Syria for a long time. If the countries of the anti -Asadian coalition begin to supply the opposition to anti -aircraft complexes (which the opposition asks them about), then the risk of not leaving this adventure without loss in Russia will seriously increase. And even if you really do not want to compare with Afghanistan, it will be even more difficult to resist such a comparison.

I repeat once again: only Vladimir Putin is interested in participating in this war in Russia (well, or collective Putin, if you like). Neither the guys who are fighting there for some unknown Assad, nor a country that is experiencing not the simplest times. Well, maybe still leading television news releases and analytical programs for which the Russian president writes scripts every day.

Natalia Gevorkyan - journalist

Opinions expressed under the heading "Law" may not reflect the point of view of the editorial office