Translated material
Farewell to the dictator
The protagonist of the network discussions of this week is the permanent president of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov (or is no longer permanent?).
Number of living ex-presidents: USA: 4 General British (premiere): 4frances: 3 Germania (chancellor): 2 Ukrainian: 4 Russian: 0.5 Uzbekistan: 0
- Konstantin Lvovich (@sector_kl) August 28, 2016
Today is a very difficult day.
Today there is a lot of smart words that now so close and similar to us Uzbekistan will show us the terrible future of Putin's Russia.
I wish everyone the courage and patience on this difficult day, which must still be somehow survived.
True, no one knows for sure whether Karimov died, whether he was alive, and if he is alive, then how he feels.
They say Islam Karimov accepted Islam
- Fields behind the hill (@lndcalling) August 29, 2016
Source: A meeting of Boris Yeltsin and Islam Karimov Pic.twitter.com/vgkeukn5nx was held in the Kremlin.
- Rip News (@riarip) August 29, 2016
Viktor Yanukovych expressed condolences to Islam Karimov in connection with his premature death
- Granovsky Temnik (@gnapphuy) August 29, 2016
Karimov died, but works with documents, a strong handshake
- Eating My Soup (@raclepigfuntik) August 29, 2016
They are outraged by a wave of stinging comments on Twitter dedicated to the death of Islam Karimov, who has not even died officially.
- MUD ROSISI (@fake_midrf) August 29, 2016
The heads of the former Union republics were advised urgently and decided: Karimov should live another five or six days to understand the situation
- Sasha_Sever (@aleks_SPB) August 29, 2016
If the dictator is chopped off, he will rule the Central Asian Republic for ten more days.
- For your eyes only (@my_useless_life) August 30, 2016
It's hard to be a dictator, you can't even really die
- Andrey pivovarov (@brewerov) August 30, 2016
The Uzbek media postponed the death of the president until the morning.
- Everything is bad (@sranysovok) August 29, 2016
A normal dictator easily rules a week after physical death.
- σλαβα Oyskt (@slavatogliatti) August 29, 2016
The situation with Karimov in some way reminds of March 1, 1953. The same strange movements in the same period of time
- Armen Gasparyan (@a_gasparyan) August 30, 2016
Today with a colleague they discussed whether Karimov will survive or not. I said that there is no chance, because under the authoritarian regime, media reports about the stroke only if there is no chance. If there is, they do not report. And he was already for several hours as dead. In general, this is very significant for expert conversations - analysis, forecast, scenarios ... When everything has already happened.
When the “stable state” is said about the seriously ill patient, we must remember that the most stable state is at the mummies in the Cairo Museum.
Of course, fake news about Uzbekistan began to appear, of course, inspires. Both Karimov died, and the wave of arrests is going on, and look at the beginning of the revolution. Apparently someone wants to make a transitional period incendiary and interesting.
Everyone has already joked about Karimov Schrödinger?
And nothing funny. Looks like the binnit is terrible.
My heart smells that with this very “death of Karimov” folk dance will now go, similar to the fact that they were in Venezuela “during the death of the” election dictator ”, Chavez. It has already begun: some publications report that Islam Karimych died - immediately some “sources from the president’s environment” refute this death.
With Chavez, I remember that in this way everyone had fun for three months. In January, knowledgeable people reported that the dictator died from his long-chasing lung cancer-but the faithful “supporters-Chavists” pulled rubber and traveled to all the ears about the fact that Chavez either came out of it, or was about to come out, as much as March. Even false videos were used, where Chavez type smiles on his deathbed and "works with documents" - then only meticulous magazines found out that they simply replaced the filming dates for later.
Interestingly, the same bacchanalia will be with Uzbekistan? Or will everything from one uncertainty begin to spread at the seams? In fact, it is not clear how Uzbekistan will be held and will not explode, because after any dictator there remains the scorched land and the war of all against all.
Either he died, or not - a farce named after March 5. Lies, maybe, like Stalin, in a puddle of urine, and everyone is afraid to go and refute each other. The end of the dictators is always humiliating: not an explosion, but a sob.
1) The death of the leader will not be announced until all the details of the throne of the throne are clarified.
2) Death will be announced when everything is ready for the funeral: it is hardly in Islamic Uzbekistan to decide on secular funerals, which means that it will be necessary to bury the body until the end of the day, according to Muslim customs.
3) It is necessary to organize the arrival of a number of VIPs for the funeral - after all, there will be a presentation of the heir, and this is not so simple.
4) Perhaps the fact is that on September 1 - the day of independence and, in order not to spoil the holiday, everyone will inform after it, by that time both Clause 1, and Clause 2, and Clause 3 will be ready. Again, in the absence of a sick leader at the holidays, the heir will be promoted everywhere.
Never before, Tashkent officials confirmed rumors about a sharp deterioration in the health of his patriarch, and today's report that Karimov is in stationary treatment, which will require a “certain time”, more than eloquently. Whether the public will become Uzbek versions of the famous messages about the “Breath of Chain-Koks” by Comrade Stalin, who preceded the death of the “leader of the peoples”, or in Tashkent will prefer a different way to prepare “city and peace” for changing the milestones in the country, it seems obvious-the transit of the authorities in the post-Soviet space is included in the agenda. Even if very plausible rumors are confirmed about the landing of the best Russian doctors, headed by the famous cardiac surgeon Leo Bokeria, are confirmed yesterday in Tashkent, it is difficult to assume that the state of health of Islam Karimov can be restored in the near future that he will be able to regain the real levers of power in Uzbekistan.
2 News, good and bad. Good: Another post -Soviet dictator is heated: a new dictator will be chosen in its place but a little younger
- David Atabekyan (@davidmsk) August 29, 2016
It’s good that he died, it’s a pity that is his death. Universal epitaph for most post -Soviet rulers.
President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov everything. It seems that we know which country the IG will move from Syria and Iraq to
- d /// Ihad (@tvjihad) August 29, 2016
Karimov died. Now America will attack Uzbekistan.
- The games are over. (@Avtort) August 30, 2016
I don’t know when the riots begin in Uzbekistan - now or a little later - but it is obvious that if this happens before September 18, then the EP will be the main beneficiary of what is happening. The demand for "stability" will increase, the theme of the "Maidan" will again become dominant (by the way, experts, what is the name of the main square of Tashkent?), The logic "if only there was no war" will again outweigh the desire for a beautiful life. Television workers will again receive the right to forget about internal problems and will broadcast about foreign policy: airbase, "soft underbuilding", strategic interests, the threat of Islamic terrorism, CIA agents, the influence of China, etc. etc.
Lenta.ru considers Karimov’s potential successors:
It should be noted that the issue of changing the authorities represents intrigue even where this process is furnished as a colorful show - for example, in the USA. And in Uzbekistan, the traditions of Soviet minimalism are holy in public relations: "... and other comrades", "... and who joined them." Nevertheless, experts, speaking of the possible successors of Karimov, often call the names of Rustam Inoyatov - the chief of the National Security Service (SNB), Shavkat Mirziyoyev - the head of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic, and his deputy Rustam Azimov. <...>
A list of possible applicants for the post of President of Uzbekistan, the youngest daughter Karimova, Lola Karimova-Tileeva, appears on the network. A version of the “famous Uzbek political scientist Usman Khaknazarov” is walking along the pages of news sites that the president in 2015 appointed the next ruler of the country Lola. The news was accompanied by melodramatic details: supposedly the head of the republic addressed the state husbands, promising that everyone would remain in their posts and retain their privileges.
On the website of Open Russia, political scientist Kamoliddin Rabbimov suggests not waiting for quick and noticeable changes:
Whoever comes to the place of Karimov, he will not rush to demonstrate the authoritarian style of government. Authoritarianism in Uzbekistan has already formed as a kind of political and philosophical thinking. The authorities, the elite believe that without coercion or even without its dosed application, the public cannot be brought to stability - otherwise religious extremism, terrorism, Islamism, separatism in Karakalpastan will arise. They are very afraid of all this. Therefore, the style of Karimov’s government will be preserved. But as soon as the successor will strengthen his power in a year or two, he will begin to manifest himself, because earlier all politicians adapted to the president, always said and did what is beneficial to him.
Not only the current prime minister is an authoritarian personality. All regional hokims are also authoritarian personalities. This is due to the fact that with a lack of resources to encourage politics, they should use another model of dominance - coercion, that is, authoritarianism. In case of non -discovery, politicians manage in Uzbekistan through deprivation of honor, dignity, life, freedom, property. They have neither intellectual, nor economic, nor other resource for managing the country without coercion.
Behind the process of transferring power in Uzbekistan, whenever it begins, will be observed in various capitals.
In the meantime, I want to say this.
It so happened that the phenomenon of authoritarian leaders who hold on to power to the last is not very fond of analyzing - at least in domestic thought and Russian Facebook. There are very few non -tensile assessments.
In many cases, such leaders are driven not only by narcissism and natural despotism. All this over time, of course, comes - as well as the conviction of his own chosen history, its own mission, its own omnipotence - and sometimes immortality. But it does not come at all at once.
In reality, motives can be quite or at least partially rational. 1. The internal conviction that any change of power is too serious stress for the system, which will immediately be shaken from outside and from the inside (holy truth). 2. The inevitable inability to squeeze the non -astrofic structure of the fate of their associates and like -minded people in the event of a loss of power. 3. The reasonable suspicion is that potential successors do not have enough intuition to hold power and protect the system. 4. Sincere support from the part of the population. 5. Natural fear of the change of generations of elites - for this becomes a symbol of departure to the side of many peers who do not even belong to the elites.
The revolutionary sides of this are also quite obvious and predictable. 1. The almost inevitable transformation of family members into a target for opponents (as it was with Nazarbayev and Karimov, in Azerbaijan it turned out a little differently - but there, as it were to express it, a bet on strengthening the family “from the inside” was also possible in Belarus, options are also possible). 2. Degradation of the managerial qualities of elites, accustomed not to jump above the head. 3. The erosion of his own mission (the desire to change everything from any manager is replaced by the desire not to change anything and protects anything - but when it is stretched in time, it can acquire caricature forms). 4. The delay in stress for the managerial elite and ordinary citizens does not cancel the stress itself, but, on the contrary, sharply enhances it, sometimes at risk not only in the current system, but also statehood as a whole. And citizens and elites, getting used to the “blessing” life, are not ready for a sudden crisis of statehood and experience their own personal and generation disasters. In the case of more regular stresses, they would be hardened, they would know what to oppose to them, and they themselves were more to the bearers of state values, realizing that in addition to evil from statehood there are many pluses and even sometimes it makes sense to protect it.
Similar ideas are brought to the absurdity of Life Observer Arkady Pole:
Karimov was not a bloodthirsty cannibal, as he was sometimes represented in the West. He simply perfectly understood that the people of Uzbekistan, with its traditional self -awareness, can only control the tyrant. And whoever came to the place of Karimov in the late 1980s, he would be obliged to become a tyrant. Otherwise, the country would inevitably plunge into bloody chaos, which we today observe in some states of the Middle East after the fall of the tyranny there.
If we abstract from the inevitably accompanying any tyranny of nightmares and look at the Karimova-human, then we can say that Uzbekistan did not become a prosperous state. But the farm laborers are there, I’m not talking about the bars, they live incomparably better than in neighboring countries.
Karimov never made high -profile statements, even never raised his votes. He was a wise, consistent leader and in the time and fate of extremely complex circumstances he managed to preserve the country and national identity.
Alexey Martynov on the Anti -Maidan website logically the Uzbek Maidan predicts for the place of publication:
I think that you should be afraid of a possible "color" scenario of the coup, whose attempt 10 years ago was brutally suppressed by Karimov. Similar events took place in Ukraine, in Georgia, and in neighboring Kyrgyzstan, but Uzbekistan is the only country where American technologists did not work out for then. The authorities in the person of Karimova showed a great firmness in defending his own state interests, its constitution, and within the framework of the legal field, resolutely suppressed all these attempts.
In my opinion, the fact that Karimov is critical today can include a kind of “color” scenario. And on the site of the Uzbek authorities, Uzbek security services, I would have much attention today to what is happening on the territory of the American embassy in Tashkent and around it. I think that in the heads of technologists "color" coups today, revenge -based moods are strong in relation to Uzbekistan.
Woe-experts who try to whitewash tyranny by any methods ...
In Russia, meanwhile, they are trying to draw their parallels.
Twenty years later, when Putin will die, the deputies will propose to name him in the name of the Kerch bridge under construction.
- Corner of cynics (@Cynicarea) August 28, 2016
Well, we can wait. Karimov was 78 years old. Vladimir Putin is young and vigorous: he is only 63 years old, in power he is only 16 years old.
... And you look, look, dear Russians. This is what awaits us if our sun will defeat everyone a hundred times and safely die to its stroke.
By that time, in the open spaces of the Motherland, as in the post-Karimov Uzbekistan today, nothing will remain at all but the declassified poor people, conflicting clans based on swollen special services, and extremists (partially religious). Well, the provocateurs will run from all sides, of course: in muddy times, this profession is especially in demand.
No democratic varieties - public dialogue, honest elections - are not expected: there is nowhere to come from. An alternative prison will be only chaos. And, frightened by chaos, the country will again choose a prison, which has long been used to.
In the interval, however, it will be recognized as appropriate to release steam, and a couple of corrupt officials will be thrown off from the porch to the pitchfork, and the same Kiselev and Solovyov, Sherochka and Masherochka, will tell the Russians about abuse.
Then, a strict one will come out on the porch with honest eyes and tells Pipla that the time has come to put things in order at home, and only give us this, and in the process of restoring order it will not be up to legal norms ...
Putin's dream: to die secretly. The very fact is classified by special decree. This is such a VIP death. In the highest category.
As there are simply heroes of Russia, but there are more better heroes of Russia: awarded with a secret decree without the right to wear a hero star.
So here, to die secretly, secretly bury, without the right to the grave. Moreover, it is specifically reservation that about this is silent. At all. Not to comment on in any way.
A year later, they will get used to it. Like he - there is, but as if - and there is no ... The couple says Peskov there, somewhere there Medvedev will cut something again ...
Where is Putin? And in response - silence. And more than this journalist at a press conference is not invited ... So everyone will understand: you can’t about it. Previously, it was impossible about daughters. And now - and about it. Now they wear it in the Kremlin! What is incomprehensible?
Where, where? In Karaganda! Do not go into private life with your snotty noses ...
Question to Armenian radio: what liberals will do if Putin dies.
Armenian radio answers: they will argue with each other on Twitter whether to rejoice at his death.
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Ivan Belyaev
Social Networks Editor Radio Liberty