Material ruble

The Russian currency rate for the dollar has not grown in recent weeks, although oil, the main product of Russian exports, has risen sharply . Exactly a week later he, like other currencies of developing countries, will have a test - the Central Bank of the United States can again increase its interest rates, which traditionally leads to the strengthening of the dollar and the outflow of capital from the markets of other countries in the United States. In addition, the strengthening of the dollar is usually accompanied by a decrease in oil prices. And in Europe, at the results of the Sunday referendum in Italy, they again remembered the long crisis in the eurozone. How can all these events and factors affect the ruble course in the week and after the New Year and after it?

Since the beginning of November, Brent oil oil, to which the export price of Russian oil Urals has been attached, has risen in price by almost 20%. However, the Russian ruble, usually following such fluctuations in oil prices, this time actually removed from them. His exchange rate to the dollar, the main currency of the global oil market, by the end of the first week of December remains exactly at the same levels as at the end of the first week of November.

In such cases, investors prefer “quiet harbor”. And such a “quiet harbor” traditionally find themselves for them by the United States and their currency.

As if there were no expectations of the meeting of the OPEC, the approach of which oil gradually valued , nor the agreement on reducing the production at which oil prices rose already to one and a half years of maximums! .. How to explain such a discrepancy?

Alexey Devyatov , Advisor to the Economics of the Financial Company Uralsib:

- In addition to oil prices, which still remain the most important factor, others affect the ruble. These are the flows of capital and operations of the Central Bank to provide liquidity to banks or, conversely, its “absorbing”, and a number of other factors. For example, there is such an opinion on the market that in recent weeks, conversion currency operations related to privatization - first Bashneft, and now Rosneft, influence the ruble exchange rate. Of course, we do not know for sure, but in principle it can be very large volumes ... In general, they are able to “provide” such dynamics when oil prices are growing strongly, and the ruble exchange rate almost does not change.

Konstantin Gulyaev , Head of the Department of Market Research of the Capital IFD:

- In my opinion, the main factor here is to strengthen the dollar against currencies of both developed countries and developing. It followed the recent presidential elections in the United States and for sales in the market of the American public debt. That is, its holders sold US government bonds, transferring their funds to dollars. As a result, the strengthening of the dollar “restrained” the ruble, which could be more significant against the background of the rapidly growing oil. But besides this, the “external” factor, there are others. Perhaps, although we, of course, do not have accurate information, this was due to the current privatization transactions - both on Bashneft and the Rosneft - that is, with the need to collect for them a very large amount in rubles - almost one trillion. Perhaps some other factors have appeared, of those that are also not “in sight”.

Many analysts, and the oil market participants themselves express considerable doubts that the agreement of the OPEC countries on reducing production, and similar plans for other mining countries will be implemented in the volumes in which they are presented today. In this case, oil can again noticeably cheaper. If we assume that its price suddenly decreases from the current 53-55 dollars per barrel Brent , say, to $ 45, then the ruble exchange rate, in theory, will react much more noticeably than in the case of oil prices ...

Olga Lapshina , chief analyst of the Swedish bank Nordea :

-The ruble, let’s say, “has been unaccepted”, that is, actually abides at the levels that are more likely to correspond to Brent oil prices at 48-49 dollars per barrel. Therefore, if oil is cheaper, say, up to 47-48 dollars, then this will most likely have no significant influence on the ruble exchange rate. Just because the ruble is actually traded close to these levels.

Konstantin Gulyaev:

- Correction of oil prices “down”, especially significant, of course, much more will affect the ruble than their growth. But since the ruble in recent weeks has not been strengthened after the oil, he has a certain “safety margin” for a new drop in prices for it. However, if Brent prices leave below $ 50 per barrel, closer, say, to 45-46 dollars, then, of course, we will see a rate somewhere around 67-68 rubles per dollar.

Alexey Devyatov:

- With a relatively stable ruble, higher interest rates in Russia make investments in Russian assets to a certain extent attractive to investors. And suddenly a sharp drop in oil prices, which will cause a significant weakening of the ruble, some investors can begin to withdraw their capital money from Russian assets. And then the weakening of the ruble will increase even more, as the outflow of capital from the country will increase.

As a result, the strengthening of the dollar “restrained” the ruble, which could be more significant against the background of the rapidly growing oil. But besides this, the “external” factor, there are others.

The course of the Unified European currency for the dollar on Monday fell to the minimum level over the past two years - at the results of the referendum in Italy, during which almost 60% of the participants rejected the constitutional reform package proposed by the government. After that, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi resigned. The next government crisis in one of the largest countries of the eurozone, which also has almost the largest public debt in Europe , and still a “smoldering” crisis in the banking sector , vividly reminded participants in the financial markets about the long-term crisis in the eurozone several years ago-Greece, Ireland, Portugal ... The crisis is already a forgotten, but not yet overcome, Alexei recalls Alexei Devyatov:

Alexey Devyatov:

- If the investors at some point just seem that Italy will not be able to serve their debts as a result of these political shocks, we risk seeing a new round of European debt crisis. And as always in such situations, in addition to Europe itself, developing countries will “suffer”. Indeed, in such cases, investors prefer “quiet harbor” . And such a “quiet harbor” traditionally find themselves for them by the United States and their currency. That is, against this background, the dollar can be very strongly strengthened, while developing countries, including Russia, can get a significant outflow of capital. Which, in addition to direct strengthening of the dollar, will additionally hit the ruble.

However, the reaction of the currencies of developing countries to such events in Europe can be another ...

Olga Lapshina:

- Italy - the third in volume economics of the eurozone. And increasing uncertainty in the country can negatively affect the economy of the region as a whole. And in such a situation, the European Central Bank can be more prone to continue to maintain the current, stimulating monetary policy. And this, in turn, is a positive factor for developing currencies, including the Russian ruble.

Correction of oil prices “down”, especially significant, of course, much more will affect the ruble than their growth.

The point is that in this case investors will not rush with the withdrawal of their capital from the markets of developing countries, including Russia, which would inevitably lead to a weakening of their currencies. However, the first, acutely negative reaction of foreign exchange markets to the results of the Italian referendum already on Tuesday changed to the reverse when the euro played all the losses incurred the day before ...

Konstantin Gulyaev:

- The influence here can be both direct action and indirect. Directly - means the sale by investors of assets in developing markets. Indirect influence - through the policy of the European Central Bank, which will affect the Euro exchange rate. However, we see now that the financial markets as a whole are so “charged” with optimism that so far “ignores” negative news is “ignoring”. Although, if this negativity will accumulate, then it will be more difficult to ignore it ...

If Brent prices leave below $ 50 per barrel, closer, say, to 45-46 dollars, then, of course, we will see a rate somewhere around 67-68 rubles per dollar.

Next week, the Federal Reserve System (Fed), the Central Bank of the United States, will make the next decision at key interest rates. For the first time, they were increased in almost ten years in December last year. The expectations of a new increase and became, in fact, the main factor in the current strengthening of the dollar. In this case, investments in American assets become more attractive for investors who will prefer to withdraw their capital to the USA from other countries, whose currencies, including the Russian ruble, in turn, will be under pressure. And the likelihood of such a decision at the December meeting of the US Federal Reserve, markets are estimated at more than 90%. However, this usually means that the reaction of the markets can already be very moderate to the event itself ...

Alexey Devyatov:

- Indeed, almost everyone is now believed to increase the Fed’s rate at the next meeting. Moreover, the markets are virtually sure that nothing can delay this decision, since the macroeconomic statistics that came from the United States in recent weeks, in general, was very favorable. And since everyone “believes”, then some serious movement in the markets, if such a decision is really made, does not have to wait. It will be a surprise if the Fed, for example, suddenly decides to postpone, but the probability of this is still close to zero. Therefore, now everyone is much more worried about how quickly the Fed will increase the rate in the future? After all, the tax and budget policy, which is declared by the elected President of the United States , may lead to the fact that the Fed will be forced to accelerate the rate in order to keep inflation in the country under control. And this, in turn, will depend on how quickly and how far the dollar will be strengthened ...

Konstantin Gulyaev:

- It seems to me that the markets will react primarily to the comment, which the Fed will accompany its decision. If in it the main emphasis is on the power of the economy, or, God forbid, there will be a hint of concern about the upcoming inflationary pressure, this will certainly affect the expectations of the market. If from the comment it will follow that next year we are expected at least two new raises in the rate, and maybe more, then, of course, this will entail a new strengthening of the dollar, and, possibly, the sale of assets in other markets. If the Fed’s comment is, on the contrary, rather soft - as they say, “pigeon”, then a reverse reaction is possible, which will appear, rather, in the sales of the dollar in the global foreign exchange market.

The decision of the US Federal Reserve will be announced on December 14 ...