Expert ImoMo RAS Sergey Kislitsyn: Even under Tillerson, Russia is unlikely to achieve the recognition of Crimea

The elected US President Donald Trump proposed to the post of public secretary Rex Tillerson, the 64-year-old head of Exxonmobil. In an interview with FoxNews, listing the main advantages of Tillerson, Trump especially noted his experience in transactions with Russia and hisconnection (having a long history) with Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, Tillerson’s proximity to the Kremlin does not mean at all that Washington will go to political concessions to Moscow, a researcher at the Center for North American Research of IMEMO RAS named after him. Primakova Sergey Kislitsyn.

The appointment of Tillerson is a specific decision, it has no experience in world politics. Of course, he talked with the leaders of different countries, he knows a lot about Russia, but he is not a diplomat - he is a businessman, the head of the board of directors. This, of course, is a somewhat strange purpose, but quite in the spirit of Trump. If Obama surrounded himself with intellectuals, then Trump is mainly generals and representatives of large business.

As for hisconnections with Sechin and even Putin, I would not have a hurry with conclusions about the upcoming rapprochement of the United States and Russia, because we are not talking about friendly contacts, but about the general business. These relations did not prevent Tillerson from suing Tillerson as the head of Exxonmobil about the return of taxes in the case with the Sakhalin-1 field. This is a business, and it will move on, only now in the field of world politics, and how they will implement it, while a mystery. The fact that Tillerson can personally communicate with Sechin and even with the president, in the event of a crisis situation, can contribute to their dialogue. However, sooner or later they will encounter a reality, which was created by the previous administration and our bilateral relations, and problems, with all the desire, will remain old.

The Senate will soon be in the power of the Republicans, they will essentially control the whole of Washington, starting in January. Gradually, Trump and Republicans will find contact points and will cooperate. I suppose that the candidacy of Tillerson was nevertheless discussed with representatives of the party, for example, ex-head of Kondoliza Rice and Robert Gates advised Trump to consider this appointment. And despite the fact that Gates worked for two parties, both of them are representatives of a large American establishment. In the help of Tillerson, John Bolton is supposed to, perhaps he will become Deputy Secretary of State. He was the US Ambassador to the UN in 2005-2006 under Bush Jr. and is a symbol of American neoconservativeism, an important component of the Republican Party, moreover, it has long been its sponsor. This is a “hawk”, which may well become a contact between Tillerson and Republicans.

Mitt Romny could take the place of Tillerson, they talked a lot about this, but Trump himself did not work out with him very much. Maybe in the process of communication, Trump made conclusions that this person is not quite suitable for the role of Secretary of State. Romny did not always support Trump, although he then congratulated him on the victory, which he immediately wrote on his Twitter. However, Romny is an establishment, and Trump is a business, and both of them are stubborn, ideological, and they had contradictions. But these are only assumptions, we don’t know what is happening in Trump Tower these days, a lot of people are on duty around the building who are watching those who go there, but what they are talking inside, we do not know.

As for the US trade policy, Tillerson and Trump have disagreements on this. The new Secretary of State advocated the Transstoocaian partnership, he considers it useful, but, I believe, it is worthwhile to wait for the appointment of the Minister of Trade. Unlike Obama, in trading matters, Trump surrounds themselves with people who prefer isolationism and protectionism. Tillerson may try to influence this, but he is a Secretary of State, he has other tasks.

In international politics, in the Syrian issue, his retinue, deputies, will play the role of their position. Everyone was waiting for the appointment of a Secretary of State, and then Trump chooses a “gray horse”: it is not clear how Tillerson will manifest himself as a diplomat, how his relationship with the same laurel will develop. If representatives of American neoconservativeism, such as Bolton, will become deputies, then the policy will be tough, almost uncompromising and one -sided. If these are supporters of realism, then we can cooperate with them, and a wider field for negotiations will appear.

Trump's position in the Crimea is completely diverging from the point of view of Congress - its republican and democratic representatives. His position is too pro -Russian even for the “pigeons”, not to mention their antipodes “hawks”. Therefore, it is unlikely that Russia will be able to achieve the recognition of Crimea.