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Mikhail Gavunas scared the administration of the Pskov region, which, it seems, helped Ivan Tsetzersky win an early victory in the election

The starting election campaign for the election of deputies of the Pskov City Duma in June was able to make surprises. For this, several factors should have coincided, and some of them played a role. Purely technologically, the “Ketzersky team” initially failed the start, not suggesting that one of the opponents would make efforts. This was naive, if we recall the failure of “Fair Russia” in the elections in September 2016: it was possible to predict that the yellow-orange would want at least some kind of revenge. Yes, and the head of Pskov, probably, knows well how many opponents who would like to change the seemingly eternal Zetsersky.

“And it seemed to everyone that the joy would be,” more precisely, in early June, at some point, the feeling appeared that the struggle for the real majority was possible: the head of Pskov was carried and continues to incur reputation losses. Among the last high -profile stories - and general political pressure according to the state of Pskov (including criticism from the Governor of the Pskov Region Andrei Turchak ), and an unsuccessful trip to the Netherlands from the election at the expense of the budget, and local conflicts with a group of Pskov politicians. And, finally, the most unsuccessful story for Ketzersky history with horseback riding in a children's park, together with the “apogee of political impotence” of the city government.

At the same time, the leadership of the Pskov region seemed to demonstrate complete indifference to the fate of Ivan Tsetzersky and his team : it is clear that the regional authorities do not consider the option of “sending the city” of the opposition, but who will be at the head of the Promotion -controlled “United Russia”, it seems, for Tourchak and KO it was not so fundamental: rather, on the contrary, the head of Pskov causes rejection of many representatives of the political elite. And because of paradoxical survivability, and because of running in the presidential administration, and because of rare and timid attempts to talk about their ambitions.

In early June, the team of the head of the city clearly lost the initiative, losing the agenda at first Pskov’s “homeland”, and then giving the opportunity to enter the field and “Just Russia”. Moreover, Oleg Bryachak managed to strike with armor and also use the rating of Ivan Tsetsersky. The revitalization of Bryachak most likely played a positive role for the head of Pskov, since it caused an allergic reaction in the administration of the Pskov region.

At first, according to the team of single -mandate nominated by the United Russia, it became clear that the Zetzersky was given the opportunity to preserve the pride of themselves: the deputy would fight for the mandate of the deputy (and have a very high chance to win) Olga Fedorova , Svetlana Komarova , Valery Lesnikov , Dmitry Barabanov , Vladimir Kovalenko , Konstantin Bolotino , Dmitry Gusakov - these The deputies to one degree or another will support Ivan Tsetsersky. The appendage in the form of a commander of the 76th airborne assault division of Alexei Naumets (who is unlikely to gather for an honorary pension to the City Duma at 49) allows you to take united Russians on the lists of 4-5 mandates, which means that the Zetsersky and Fedorova, who will win in their single-member districts, immediately have the leaders of territorial groups of territorial groups The chance to get the mandate of the deputy. And here the chances are the highest among Valery Tyumentsev , Fedor Gollnov , Vladimir Afanasyev , Vladimir Vorobyov , Diana Greenchishina .

A successful combination of political circumstances, it seems, will allow Ivan Tsetsersky to maintain control of the City Duma. Photo: Timur Galimov / PG

Already such a situation gives Ivan the Tsetsersky opportunity without risk to preserve the status quo in the City Duma of a new convocation. Yes, internal conflicts are possible, as with Elena Polonskaya , but obviously not those that can lead to structural changes in the representative meeting of the regional center.

The activation of the “Gavunas team” sharply increased the request for stability in Pskov : just like that, even with excessive anguish and pathos (which resembles a “nervous” either in the style of Ivan Tsetzersky, or the Political Block of APO), is now called in the pronounced media Oleg Bryachak and “fair Russia”, which (not for the first time over the years?) Coalition front. The Socialist-Revolutionaries who have not been particularly strained, which are associated with the fugitive oligarch Mikhail Gavunas, are now trying to sew the “shadow of Gavunas” at the pace: as you know, it causes irritation not only among the officials of the regional administration, but also among the special services, and among the embassy in the North-Western Federal District. For example, the long-suffering Evgeny Mikhailov (now he nominally heads the “Euro-ceramics” of Gavunas) for the last two years, it is removed from the elections precisely after intervention at the federal level.

At some point-no, no, it was unlikely that the Tsetsersky team guessed, it is obvious that the tense thought process went to the regional administration-so at some point the regional authorities were finally able to notice as part of Fair Russia, the City Cell of the Communist Party and the “Party of Pensioners”, as they are expressed, “imperial hypermarket workers”. The officials of the “people of Gavunas” noticed among self -nominated people - for example, the director of “Imperial” Nikolai Rassadin , who does not hide his personal photos with Gavunas in Israel.

Mikhail Gavunas (left) continues to influence political processes in the Pskov region, but the logic of this influence is not always obvious. Photo: personal archive of Nikolai Rassadin.

In this case, even the political block of the administration of the Pskov region can compare “A” and “B” . Although, maybe this was the calculation. If a sincere attempt to unite (against the Ketzersky or actually against Turchak) caused such a reaction, then the unification was, although it was a pity that the power on it was reacted nervously, but in a timely manner. If someone wanted to create a terrible image of the opposition and help preserve the current team with the status quo, then they also succeeded. Although I would not want to believe that the only attempt to combine the opposition under a common wing was a bluff is not the situation.

On the other hand, counting on the possibility of obtaining a majority in the Pskov City Duma is also perhaps extremely naive. Regardless of resources.

The only significant step for “fair Russia” and its partners may be a non -certificate of the “Motherland” elections - theoretically there is a chance that the movement of Konstantin Vilkov will not be registered by rejecting signatures, although, apparently, the Pskov “Rodina” cannot go to the elections: in fact, all this time they played in the same field with “Fair Russia”, and this means that most of their votes will go away Socialist -Revolutionaries, which - again - the administration of the Pskov region cannot allow. In the meantime, apparently, the “homeland” is even ready to forgive the unauthorized nomination of Galina Kuzma in the elections in the Palkinsky district - the campaign in Pskov is much more important, and the need for the “homeland” after the nomination is obvious: what is the technological resource of the united front of “Just Russia”, the political block of the regional administration is unlikely to predict. And insurance in the form of a "homeland" in an extreme case of serious competition and black technologies will be very in demand.

And even if the “homeland” really does not like the Zetsersky, but even more Gavunas does not like Andrei Turchak and his deputies: to dilute the incomprehensible mixture of the “homeland” in percentage ratio. And here it is truly difficult to understand who ultimately plays, it is quite difficult: the “homeland” strikes the Tsetsersky, helping to weaken his position, but at the same time allowing Pskov without losses under the control of “United Russia”. And the Gavunas Group, personified by the “fair Russia”, is trying to strike Turchak, demonstrating that the political situation in the region has been destabilized. But thereby it strengthens the positions of the "team of the Zetsersky."

Strange as it may seem, the won here is precisely the weakest link: the current backbone of the City Duma will remain under the control of the current head of Pskov. Moreover, other parties that have a chance to overcome a 5 percent barrier will also not in the opposition to the Zetsersky: in any case, neither the LDPR deputy Sergei Barabanov , nor the deputy from Yabloko Arthur Gaiduk (they go the actual first numbers in single lists) were never seen in this.

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