Why Navalny won

For change, we need not millions of ordinary people, but tens of thousands of active people who are ready to go all the way

The actions that took place throughout Russia on October 7 were largely spontaneous. They were not prepared for months, at least in the traditional sense of the word. In fact, it was about the forced reaction of Navalny and his supporters to the hysterical attempts of the authorities to prevent the holding of one specific action - a rally in Putin's native St. Petersburg on the day of his 65th birthday. As a result, instead of one coordinated rally in one city, the authorities received dozens of street actions across the country. Is it a defeat or a victory for Navalny and his entire strategy? If we take the number of spontaneous protests in each individual city and compare it with the population of Russia, then, of course, defeat. But if you evaluate the scale and coordination of actions across the country and the determination of activists, especially in a situation where the movement is essentially decapitated by the arrest of Navalny and Volkov, the head of his headquarters, then this is a success in which one can see the dawn of a real victory.

"The audience is waiting, be brave, acrobat!"

Navalny pretty much spoiled the political and near-political public and even bothered her. Hence this constant grumbling, increasingly turning into swearing. People who constantly need to write and talk about something, on the one hand, are very grateful to him - there are so many reasons and topics! - but on the other hand, they are already pretty tired of him. In the end, it seems that everything has already been said, and Navalny again spoke at a rally in some province, again went to jail, again called his supporters to the streets. And what, again about it to write and speak? Many people would gladly stop writing about him at all, and that is why the idea with the presidential candidate Ksenia Sobchak was received so well: this is where the holiday and carnival are, and there is no need to go to any Murmansk and Vladivostok: the whole campaign is in Moscow, in a nearby restaurant, go to buffets and write columns and articles, a million new topics! But I have to write about Navalny again, because besides him, there is only Putin in the country and very boring people like Yavlinsky, about whom everything has been written all the more, and a very long time ago.

Several thousand self-appointed judges - political scientists, observers, columnists, active bloggers on all social platforms - are, in a practical sense, the incarnation of the “pique vests” praised by Ilf and Petrov, who spend their lives in the company of their own kind, for some reason believing that they are mind, honor and conscience of our era, experts in the ways of saving Russia and experts in the fight against the regime. It is from this side that the constant grumbling at Navalny is heard, with the annoying refrain "the movement has declined."

A conscious or often unconscious desire to see Navalny's star go down has rallied a wide variety of people: unclaimed "leftist" theorists, scrapped "democratic activists", disillusioned heroes of the protests of 2011-2012 - in an exhausting struggle with Navalny, they are all united and infinitely principled. It would seem, why does he interfere with them so much, why spend so much effort on fixing mistakes, real and imaginary? If you don’t like Navalny, then find another protest leader, rally around or become one yourself, create an active network of supporters throughout the country, find ways to finance your activity, and show Navalny the right way. But for some reason, no one follows this path, but many are ready to give advice on where to spend the money raised by them and how to use supporters and activists not attracted by them.

The conscious or often unconscious desire to see Navalny's star go down has rallied a wide variety of people: unclaimed "leftist" theorists, scrapped "democratic activists", disillusioned heroes of the protests of 2011-2012

It would seem that there is nothing to worry about: if Navalny is so wrong, then sooner or later his star will really set, his movement will bog down, and everyone will be able to write any number of texts about why everything was doomed and what were the mistakes. If suddenly Navalny manages to change the situation in the country, then all the more it is worth waiting for this moment and saving strength until the very first free elections. But no, for some reason, Navalny's furious opponents, who consider themselves opposition-minded, do not want to wait, but want to swear and be indignant right now, so after each action a funeral service begins - it didn’t work out, there are few people, this is the end, the movement has fizzled out!

Leaving aside those who are simply doing their job, the motivation of this group of critics and accusers, apart from the weariness already mentioned, is transparent and obvious: envy. About the small number of people marrying Navalny, most often they write about characters who, in their lives, and ten people have not led to anything more ambitious than a game of pétanque. Unclaimed graphomaniacs often talk about his lack of a program, flooding a small circle of their admirers with kilobytes of texts, and leaders of small prides like to write about Navalny's leaderism and authoritarianism, where any disagreement with the opinion of the microfuhrer is punished with all severity. Some part of the expert community, even quite critical of the authorities, hates Navalny, first of all, because he has the audacity not to turn to them for advice and not listen to lectures.

Mythical millions

Few things harm the protest movement in Russia more than the stupidest myth about the futility of everything except a one-time appearance on the streets of “millions”. Despite the fact that there is not a single case in history when a capable authoritarian regime would first allow its opponents to organize the exit of millions of dissatisfied people into the streets, and then collapse under their pressure, there are shockingly many adherents of this children's fairy tale.

Pretty confused minds and Ukrainian mythology about the Maidan. Even without going into details, it should be obvious to any thoughtful observer that there were prerequisites for such a development of events in Kiev, and nothing like this is possible in Moscow, just as it is impossible to grow pineapples in the tundra — there are no conditions. Both Ukrainian Maidans took place with the active and undisguised assistance of a part of the political and economic elite of the country and, in fact, were only screens for removing one part of the elite from power in the interests of another. Having celebrated the victory, the notorious “millions” went home and after a while found that, in principle, nothing had changed except for the faces at the feeder, although basically the faces were the same, from the back rows of the old guard. In this sense, it is hardly worth considering the Ukrainian experience as a successful example of democratic transformations and somehow seriously discussing it in relation to Russia.

In the conditions of Russia, in all seriousness, to believe that, at the call of a nationwide opposition channel, millions of people will take to the square, and in the forefront there will be deputies poking their IDs in the faces of the police, this is not even naive, but stupid.

IN THE CONDITIONS OF RUSSIA, TO SERIOUSLY BELIEVE THAT AT THE CALL OF THE NATIONAL OPPOSITION CHANNEL, MILLIONS OF PEOPLE WILL GO TO THE SQUARE, AND THERE WILL BE DEPUTY IN THE FIRST ROWS - THIS IS NOT EVEN NAIVE, BUT STUPID

However, all this mythology, or rather, its popularity, is not surprising and even quite understandable in a human way. Firstly, professing such a political concept allows you not to go anywhere, explaining to everyone around: “Of course, I would go if it was the very action after which everything would change, but nothing will change, and therefore I will not go anywhere !" Secondly, dreaming about the mythical millions that will come out and fix everything is a great excuse to do nothing at all, except moan on social networks. Say, 86% are all the same for Putin, they watch TV, they are "zombified", so they will never come out, and these your / our shares are few and useless, all is vanity and decay, let's better cry.

Navalny changed the political life of Russia in a way that only one person, Vladimir Putin, changed it before him. But if Putin destroyed street politics, destroyed a viable opposition and created a sterile environment in which no alternative social life seemed to be possible, then Navalny turned the situation around. Thanks to his activity and the activities of his entourage in Russia (not only and not so much in Moscow, but precisely in all of Russia!) a working political system has emerged that can mobilize hundreds of thousands of people to collect signatures, tens of thousands of people to agitate and thousands of people to desperate street protest.

A working political system has emerged that can mobilize hundreds of thousands of people to collect signatures, tens of thousands of people to agitate and thousands of people to a desperate street protest.

The main success of Navalny and his headquarters, which they consolidate over and over again, with each new action, lies not in the number of people who go out on conscription, but in their quality. Fearless, determined and optimistic young people who are not afraid of threats and reprisals are Navalny's main asset, and no one else in Russia has such people besides him.

History teaches that the mythical millions of inhabitants who suddenly see the light and take to the streets of cities are not needed for change. For the collapse of the regime, tens of thousands of active and fearless people are needed who are not afraid to go all the way and win while the townsfolk sit at the TV and watch their favorite series or programs about the flat Earth. On October 7, 2017, we saw that there are already such people in Russia, and the only question is when their number will reach that critical mass, after which it will no longer be possible to stop them by the police.