Sergey Safe: Early elections in Germany threaten to weaken its positions in the world arena

Coalition negotiations in Germany ended with a sudden failure of the Jamaica. Whether the negotiation process will continue how the alignment of forces will change and whether the Angel Merkel will take the chancellor chair in the event of re-election, The Insider said the political scientist Sergei Said.

The way out of them is one of the two potential younger partners in the Coalition Government “Yamaika”-the liberal free democratic party of Germany-was furnished according to all the rules of the viral PR action. The text of the statement published in the evening, according to circles close to the leadership, was prepared in the morning. Then, through the Facebook pages of supporters of the party, a postcard, made in full accordance with the Stylegayd party, began to spread. “It is better not to rule than to rule the wrong” - a catchy slogan, made by a corporate font of Magent's color on a corporate bright yellow background - all that has successfully brought the party leader Christian Lindner in the elections in September. Now the verified PR campaign should convince voters that the decision to interrupt negotiations, without even waiting for the first results, was true and balanced.

The sudden cessation of consultations-“probing conversations”, as it is in the Medicine, or using geological intelligence vocabulary, is called in Germany the primary grinding of parties to each other-became a shock for many. Actually, the Government of the Yamaiki (the Union of the Conservative Bloc of the CDU/CSS with a traditional black color, the liberal SVDP with yellow and "green" - that was the colors of the Yamaisky flag) Germany had the greatest hopes.

Triple, and in fact, even a quadruple coalition, given the somewhat different positions of the CDS and the CSS inside the conservative block, is already an exercise in political balances. And given the traditional antagonism of a sharply conservative CSS and left -wing -liberal “green” - the task becomes even more complicated. It seemed that no matter what the question is - from the right of refugees to invite members of their families to Germany to reunite, to the timing of Germany from the use of diesel engines in cars - the CSS and the "green" positions were almost polar, and the fact that the liberal SVDP interrupted was even more surprise.

Why did the German political elites decide to go to negotiations on the formation of such a complex government - and, most importantly, what will happen next?

First of all, it must be understood that the idea of ​​a political compromise is the basis of the German post -war political system. The political structure of the Federal Republic of Germany was built in such a way as to avoid the risks of the concentration of power in the same hands - and also not to give any policy the opportunity to flaunt the “direct” election as a leader: they say, the people have chosen me directly, and therefore I can ignore laws, traditions, and not to burden myself with political consultations. Therefore, the chancellor is elected in Germany not by direct voting of citizens, but by the voices of parliamentary deputies - that is, indirectly. By the way, in fact, the situation is even more complicated. Although all parties go to the elections with a specific proposal of whom they want to see the chancellor in the event of their victory, no legal obligation should be made of this. Moreover, the president of the country proposes the candidacy of the chancellor after the elections - after consultations with parties.

If more than half of the deputies will vote for this candidacy, the country receives a new chancellor (to date, however, the candidacy has always been offered only the one with which the winning party went to the elections-although in 2005 the CDS was thinking of changing the then controversial party, Angel Merkel for someone else). And if it does not vote, then the deputies have 14 days to approve another chancellor, or re -election happens in the country.

Never in the entire history of Germany is the candidacy of the chancellor gained as many votes as the deputies were part of the ruling coalition.

Usually, none of the parties receives more than 50% of the places in parliament, so coalition agreements are always concluded. These are real agreements for a couple of hundred pages in which it is described in detail what exactly those who want to enter the coalition government of the party are ready to enter each other. For example, one party promised voters to raise VAT on a percentage point, and the other not to touch the VAT rate. The coalition agreement may eventually record that VAT will be raised, but only by 0.75 points, and not immediately, but a year after the formation of the government. Looking from abroad, it may seem that negotiations are petty, but in fact they work to protect the rights of voters who deliberately voted for a particular party, and therefore negotiations last for so long. For example, before the formation of the last “large coalition” - the Union of CDS and SDPG - negotiations took three months, and they were preceded by another vote. Social Democrats conducted a survey Members of their party - they are ready for the SDPG to enter the coalition with the Merkel party. Here, by the way, it should be noted that in the entire history of the Federal Republic of Germany, the candidacy of the chancellor gained as many votes as the deputies was part of the ruling coalition. That is, from 10 to 30 deputies refused to vote for the coalition of their own party. This is why it is important that the ruling coalition has a certain supply of votes.

So, now, after the early completion of the negotiations, Germany hung in the phase between the elections (when the layout of places in the parliament was determined), and the signing of a coalition agreement (when several parties agreed on what conditions they are ready to form the government with each other). Due to the fact that six parties were included in the parliament, and not five, as usual in recent years, the political landscape was fragmented. The radical “alternative for Germany” (ADG) has already been violated with one of its entry in parliament with more than 13% of their places-and now none of the traditional unions are impossible in parliament: neither the “black and yellow” conservative liberal block, nor the “red-green” union of the Social Democrats and the Green. And the continuation of the "Great Coalition" is not wanted by the Social Democrats, greatly affected by the unnecessary proximity to Merkel.

“Jamaica” was considered by German society as a saving version. Now hopes for her are destroyed. Merkel’s hands are several possible options. Firstly, this is an attempt to agree with the Social Democrats, which have twice helping conservatives over the past 12 years, and twice who went to the Great Coalition government. Now the Social Democrats are in every possible way abandon the third campaign under the Office of Merkel, which promises them only a new decline in popularity, but who knows how convincing the chancellor will be.

The second option is an attempt to create a “minority government”. Leaving the liberals outside, Merkel will try to agree only with the "green". They have already tried to create such a coalition in the last election - then it did not work out with it, although there were enough voices. Today, when the CDS/CSS and Green do not gain 50% of the vote in parliament, and to choose the chancellor, and for subsequent decisions, the government will have to enlist the support of at least 30-40 deputies from other factions. This is the most unstable and therefore unwanted coalition for Merkel.

Steinmeier's native party, Social Democrats, would rather benefit from new elections, strengthening her position

Finally, the third option is early elections. It seems that they are the least in Germany - after all, in fact, a new vote will mean the inconsistency of the fractions of the formed parliament. The President of the Federal Republic of Germany, the former candidate for the Chancellors from the Social Democrats-Frank-Walter Steinmeyer, has already stated that he was not approved by the idea of ​​new elections, in his opinion, in this way the parties want to disown the responsibility for the country and shift it to the voter-let it be, they say, he will vote again. And this despite the fact that the native Party of Steinmeier, Social Democrats, would rather benefit from new elections, strengthening its positions (you can only move up from the current historical minimum at 20%).

Already according to this statement by Steinmeier, the idea of ​​a compromise is extremely important for the German establishment. The decision of the leader of the SVDP Lindner to interrupt negotiations is considered in Germany not as a manifestation of firmness, but as a boy and the "stellar" of the party leader. How will this development of the situation on the domestic and foreign policy of Germany affect?

If there are fewer parties in the new government, then its policy can be more pronounced. In the case of a “black-green” minority government, posts will be distributed between conservatives and green-and according to tradition, the foreign policy block will go to the younger partner. This will mean that the foreign policy of Germany will focus more on moral values, and not on economic short -term pragmatism. This means great chances to preserve sanctions against Russia (representatives of the SVDP, on the contrary, advocated their cancellation).

In turn, possible new elections will mean a weakening of Germany’s positions on the world arena, since political uncertainty in the country will last at least six months. At the same time, most likely the positions of the radicals are weakened - after the shocking success of the ADG in the elections in September, democratic voters will come to the urns more mobilized. On the other hand, however, the question will arise whether, after the election of the angel Merkel, the position of the chancellor will be behind - despite the fact that it was on her personally that the consistent pro -European position of the country personally depended. However, today it is too early to talk about the layouts of the upcoming elections. According to the German tradition, negotiations and the search for a compromise will continue until the last.