Fourth term: beginning

The new term of Putin immediately began with disasters, scandals, protests. Then it will only be worse

Photo: Pixabay / Jackmac34

This time, Putin’s new term begins quite ominously, and even a person far from mysticism becomes anxious from the question - what will happen next? Unfortunately, in our case, the future can be predicted without any mysticism: then it will be approximately the same, only worse, and everything that happened these days is only indirectly connected with the past elections.

All bad - after plebiscite

From the post-breed period, you can expect something new only in cases where, as a result of voting, the first person or the ruling party changes. In Russia, we have the day of the presidential election - this is a political analogue of the offensive of the calendar New Year, that is, an abstract date, which people are exclusively by tradition and with varying degrees of enthusiasm as a symbol of changes for the better. Needless to say, with the onset of the New Year, most people in life change nothing? The same thing with the presidential elections: for someone it was a hot season at work, someone was grumbling that from this stupid one bustle and every time, someone carefully performed all the rituals prescribed by tradition in anticipation of a miracle-but on the morning of March 19, everyone woke up in the same country, in which they fell asleep.

What happened in Russia after the election? Let's go straight along the calendar and start with a crisis near Moscow with landfills. The fact that the poisonous emission happened immediately after the vote, and not the day before, is a pure chance. Of course, if it occurred earlier, this would affect the turnout in specific cities and the results of voting in them. But in general, no citizens' speeches against landfills would prevent Putin from re -elect. The fact that local residents moved to active protest actions is hardly associated with the growth of self -awareness as a result of the election campaign of the authorities about the importance of each vote. The behavior of the inhabitants of Volokolamsk, Kolomna and other places is easy to explain without any policy: people have the physiological limits of patience of the stench and related problems. The behavior of the authorities is also understandable and predictable: the garbage will be exported, otherwise Moscow will be rebelled, which means that the conflict will develop, the leaders of the protest activity of the Moscow Region will put pressure more and more, and the first detentions have already begun.

Of course, the ethics commission could justify the mandility of her colleague Slutsky and before the elections, but why spoil the president to the president, albeit small, but scandal? According to the same logic throughout the country, everything is bad and even simply ambiguous in the sense of perception by people was postponed in afternoon time

The fact that immediately after the election day, the authorities at all levels ceased to be shy and depicting fluctuations is also not a new phenomenon. As in the case of the New Year, officials simply do not want to spoil the holiday either to themselves or the president and therefore postpone the publication and implementation of the long -made decisions for afternight time. Of course, the ethics commission could justify the mandility of her colleague Slutsky and before the elections, but why spoil the president to the president, albeit small, but scandal? According to the same logic throughout the country, everything is bad and even simply ambiguous in the sense of perception by people was postponed to post -sophisticated time.

For example, in Yekaterinburg, two unpleasant events planned before the presidential election occurred in the first post -collection week - on March 22, Governor Kuyvashev introduced a bill on the abolition of direct elections of the head of the city, and on March 23, contrary to the protesters of the townspeople, they blew up one of the symbols of the city - an unfinished TV tower.

Non -accepted tragedy

The tragedy in Kemerovo is all the more too multi -dimensional and obviously growing from the entire aggregate of the problems of Russian society and a specific situation in Kemerovo in order to vulgarly tie it by the date of the presidential election and to associate with them. However, not anyone, but Alexander Bastrykin himself said that the fire alarm in the Winter Cherry shopping center stopped working on March 19 and no one even began to repair it. Now it is already clear that the burned building had many shortcomings that would sooner or later lead to trouble, but still the date is notable: on the eve of March 18, the authorities showed increased vigilance and gave a clear signal to everyone, that for a spoiled holiday they would tear their heads instantly, and after the election day, everyone traditionally relaxed.

And even the resignation of Aman Tuleyev is not a result of a terrible fire at all: the last year they spoke about his imminent care. Is it too surprised that the acting The governor became odious Sergey Tsivilev, who thundered throughout Russia with his manner of communication with the victims of the fire? The authorities once again demonstrate that personnel decisions are made solely on the basis of internal corporate interests and without taking into account the opinions of citizens - even against the background of the tragedy.

On the eve of March 18, the authorities demonstrated increased vigilance and gave everyone a clear signal that for a damaged holiday the head would be torn away instantly, and after the election day, everyone traditionally relaxed

The foreign policy crisis with masses of diplomats because of the Skripals case is all the more difficult to fasten to the elections and their results. Not anything wrong with the Skripals, Putin, most likely, would have received approximately the same results on March 18. The growth of tension in international relations began for a long time and occurs according to internal logic, within the framework of which the incident in Salisbury is much more significant than the electoral procedure in Russia.

Finally, the case of the Magomedov brothers - is it related to the end of the elections? It would seem that the high-profile detention of the billiarders brothers on the eve of the vote could be impersonally for the beginning of a decisive struggle with corruption. But this story clearly develops in a completely different logic, and the election factor here is only one of the many: perhaps the Magomedov brothers hoped that post -breed relaxation would give them a head start, and their opponents understood that if it was a little hesitated with detention, it would become impossible.

What next

Putin came to power not on March 18, 2018, and in itself this date does not have any special significance and cannot be a starting point for some reasoning about the future. If we want to understand what will happen next, we must look back and see how all these years we are quickly, then slowly, then straight, then with winding ways went to the current state of affairs. In a practical sense, the period after 2014 is especially important: the course taken then is not revised, and after four years, the authorities only tighten its rhetoric, ignoring the lack of positive results and increasing costs.

Putin will also be completely absorbed in geopolitical games, periodically declare mourning and finding more and more new foci of tension between the population and the authorities within Russia

Therefore, the answer to the question of what will happen next is quite obvious: Putin will also be completely absorbed in geopolitical games, periodically declare mourning and finding more and more foci of tension between the population and the authorities within Russia. But the governors will resign or arrest billionaires only for corporate reasons, but not based on the mood of citizens and the state of affairs in the regions or the country - because the authorities live separately from citizens, regardless of them and according to their internal rules. How long the country can live in such a situation, in conditions of increasing pressure from outside and without any way out of the situation, is, in fact, the main question of modern Russia.

* Political scientist, permanent Columnist NT

The author’s opinion may not coincide with the opinion of the editorial office