Experts allowed the ruble to strengthen by 13% in the second half of 2018

Experts from the RANEPA and the Gaidar Institute admitted that by the end of 2018, the Russian currency could significantly strengthen due to a strong balance of payments. According to them, if energy prices do not fall and new sanctions are not introduced, the dollar exchange rate may return to 55-59 rubles/$.

Details

• “Unless there is a significant drop in energy prices or an aggravation of geopolitical risks, the ruble may strengthen by the end of the year,” experts write in the article “Balance of Payments in the Second Quarter of 2018: in the Positive Zone.” Strengthening of the national currency will occur due to a strong balance of payments, analysts say. Assessing the state of the balance of payments in the current year, the Central Bank concluded that the current account balance in the second quarter amounted to $22.3 billion, which is 11.7 times more than $1.9 billion for the same period in 2017.
• “Traditionally, in a situation of a strong balance of payments, the ruble strengthened. <...> Given a strong balance of payments and the absence of additional negative factors, even despite the intervention of the Ministry of Finance, the dollar exchange rate may return to the pre-April range of 55-59 rubles per dollar by the end of the year, ”one of the authors of the article explained to . Forbes Pavel Trunin, Head of the Research Area "Macroeconomics and Finance" of the Gaidar Institute and Director of the Center for the Study of Central Banking Problems of the IPEI RANEPA.
• Not everyone agrees with the optimistic forecast of experts from the RANEPA and the Gaidar Institute. Demand for risky assets, including the ruble, will be low due to the tightening of monetary policy by global regulators, says Denis Davydov, chief analyst at Nordea Bank. According to him, investors are interested in more reliable instruments and currencies, they want to invest in dollars. The ruble can strengthen by a maximum of 3%, the economist notes. The current rate does not yet reflect the risk of new sanctions or geopolitical factors, which are quite possible in the near future, says Iskander Lutsko, director of investment consulting at Sistema Capital.
• Vladimir Miklashevsky of Danske Bank is one of the few analysts polled by Reuters who expects the ruble to appreciate as early as August, to 61.80 per dollar. “The psychological factor of August (according to its results, the national currency showed growth only five times in the entire recent Russian history, Reuters specifies) is no longer as significant as it was several years ago. This can be seen from the strengthening of the ruble in August 2016 and 2017,” says Miklashevsky. At the same time, he does not exclude that the ruble may lose about 3% against the dollar in August, up to 64.00-64.50. You can read other forecasts here .

Context

• Earlier, President Vladimir Putin signed a law abolishing fines for non-return of foreign exchange earnings for exporting companies that fell under the sanctions. Rosneft, in particular, can take advantage of it. back in mid-July Analysts at Raiffeisenbank warned that Rosneft alone would be enough to reduce the supply of foreign currency in Russia by $25 billion to $64 billion. This, in turn, could lead to an increase in the foreign currency deficit in the domestic market and become a new risk factor for the ruble.
• But don't panic, urge other analysts polled by The Bell. The law signed by Putin changes the requirements for the repatriation of proceeds, but not for its sale, recalls Vladimir Osakovsky, chief economist at the Russian office of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. There have been no legal requirements for the sale of foreign currency in Russia for a long time, so the total supply of foreign currency on the spot market should not change significantly, he believes. Exporters have managed to bypass the requirement to repatriate foreign exchange earnings before, adds Sergei Romanchuk, director of foreign exchange and money market operations at Metallinvestbank. He also does not expect the ruble to react to this change.

Liana Faizova