Spite of records. Why Apple began to cost a trillion, and Facebook lost $ 140 billion per day.

On Thursday, July 26, Facebook shares collapsed by almost 19%, while another technological giant, Apple, exceeded the expectations of investors - showed an increase and set a market value - $ 1 trillion. The analyst of the Finam group Leonid Delitsyn explained The Insider, what caused these events in the market, whether Mark Zuckerberg will return its former power and it can be said that the era of social networks is coming to an end.

In mid -July, Facebook reported on financial results for the quarter and immediately lost a quarter of the market value - almost one and a half hundred billion dollars. Now Mark Zuckerberg is only a half trillion with a small tail.

Why did Facebook shares collapse? A simple answer is this: because his shares were too expensive. It is unlikely The fact is that the company earned 13.23 billion per quarter, and the consensus prognosis prescribed 13.36. Well, I did not get Facebook One percent to forecasts - so the shares of one percent would fall. But not at 24! Moreover, the quarterly revenue of the company is growing at a frantic speed-by 49% (year-K-oro). Today they did not reach the percentage, they will catch up in the next quarter. Who doubts it?

This is where the explanation begins to draw. To the numbers financial director The company David Venner added a remark, they say the growth rate of revenue in the future will slow down, and the costs, on the contrary, will grow rapidly. Everyone knows that Facebook became a nursery of false news and Kremlin trolls, Mark Zuckerberg called “on the carpet” in Congress and the Senate, where he very successfully spoke, and at the same time to European supervisory authorities, where he sent representatives instead.

Alas, Facebook is a very expensive company, its shares are very expensive. And the high cost of shares is calculated in the assumption that the revenue and profit will grow with a fabulous pace for the next ten years. Let us pay tribute to Zuckerberg - he is trying with all his might, so that it would be so - he promised to cover Facebook by the entire population of the globe, introduced a free, although cut to Wikipedia, the Internet in poor countries, invested in the Ocean Dona Railway, bought promising competitors and diversified the sources of income, selling user data ...

The revenue diversification channel is blocked, and you will have to spend money on the fight against false news and enemy trolls

And here the entrepreneurial energy of Tsuckerberg was not only ahead of his time, but the political card fell unsuccessfully for him. However, how could he know about it in advance? After all, if you open some popular book, published before 2016, say, Eric Sigal’s “predictive analytics”, you can find a lot of praise there to the headquarters of Barack Obama, who skillfully used the Internet, enthusiasm for the alleged billion of donations and the defeat of Macaken and Romny. Well, what was the bad thing in providing user data to partners? One way or another, now this channel of diversification of income is blocked, and you will have to spend money on the fight against false news and enemy trolls.

What do investors think about this? Investors think that new growth drivers are canceled, costs are growing, and the financial director chose to say this right away and directly. Well, since something is not very favorable, it is necessary to somehow respond. Those who bought stocks in order to quickly earn on a growing trend were thrown out the papers. The managers who laid high and constant growth rates in their forecasts could join them. The company began to look overvalued. Too expensive.

But what does it mean - Too expensive? Is Apple cheap? While I wrote this text, I discovered that the market capitalization of Apple pierced the bar in Trillion dollars. By the way, back in 2011, Tsuckerberg stated that Facebook would cost a trillion. So far, he has passed only half the road.

Paradoxical, but the price of Apple next to Facebook looks much less high. Comparing the cost of companies, financiers use a simple indicator called the attitude or multiplier p/s - it is equal to the capitalization of the company divided into its revenue. The P/S indicator tells us how much the market the market evaluates the company.

So, at Apple, even now, after taking off the promotion course, this P/S indicator is 3.93, and Facebook even after a fall is 11.5. In other words, the cost of Apple slightly does not fail to four annual revenues, but Facebook costs more than eleven.

If you evaluate Facebook as severely as Apple, then its entire cost will be almost three times less than now

The fact is that Apple earns a lot. And especially a lot - compared to Facebook . A lot - it is 255 billion dollars a year. Facebook - about 45. If it were estimated as severely as Apple, then its entire cost would be 177 billion now - almost three times less than now. There is still where to fall. It is better not to remember other companies, for example, domestic cellular operators, p/s multipliers of which are barely exceeding the unit. But it is quite appropriate to recall Yandex with a multiplier 3.6, Google (7.2), Amazon (4.6), Match Group (owner Tinder) with a multiplier 7.3.

Here you need to make a reservation that multipliers are used to the so-called analogue companies, but what can there be an analogy between the social network and the Amazon store or the seller of apple iron? Here you will have to shrug-where can I get accurate-blessed analogues if there is only one Facebook in the world? In fact, he is a global monopolist and removes his innovative rent. Therefore, it earns 45 billion. One way or another, but certainly Facebook is more like Amazon than oil company or air carrier. Moreover, there with animators will be much more gloomy. High -tech multipliers are high, and from among Large companies in this sector are at Facebook. Now even Twitter is losing to him, whose animator does not reach ten.

If Apple is evaluated at the point, then Facebook - according to its radiant future

Obviously, Facebook is still much higher than any of the listed. Why? Because they see that this company is an actual global monopolist, controlled by a grown founder, buying up all promising competitors. And they believe that this growth will continue for many more years, so Facebook in five years is not at all the same as today, but ten times more. If Apple is evaluated today, then Facebook is on its radiant future.

Then the financial director David Venner enters the stage and states that not everything is so simple. And he is right, and in the cash use financial models in which revenue affects the cost only indirectly, through profit. It is assumed that the company first increases the revenue, then increases profit and once begins to pay dividends from profit from profit. The discounted amount of dividends for the entire life of the company is its cost. The key is thus not in revenue, but in profit. But David Venner also does not advise hoping for profit-he says that expenses will grow due to the need to mock false rumors and catch trolls.

Investors conclude - the financial director considers the moment to be optimal to adjust hopes. It is understood that the company is guilty of shareholders only in the desire to make more for them, but that the congressmen and their colleagues from the European Union entangled the young horse, and He will not be able to ride, as before.

Has the sunset of the American Haytek? No, judging by the take -off of Apple shares, it all depends on a particular company. By the way, Two and a half years ago, Warren Buffett, the famous stock investor, acquired Apple shares package for a billion dollars. Today this billion has turned into two. However, if he bought Facebook shares, he would also not have lost, but the billionaire declares that he buys only what he understands. The most famous acquisition was Coca-Cola shares. It can be concluded that the iPhone has become something like a cola-it is omnipresent, half of the Americans own it, and in the rest of the world it is relatively expensive and prestigious. But Facebook has not yet become.

Will Facebook close, what will happen to the services, with Zuckerberg, what will happen to us if the company closes, and did the era of social networks decline? All these issues create a large and grateful field for discussion, but I will be brief and finish the biblical quote, “what happened, it will be, and there is nothing new under the sun”. In addition, do not forget that Facebook troubles are a chance for its competitors - Russian (and Chinese!) Social networks. And Zuckerberg now will always be fine. And even the shares of his company will gradually restore their value.