How long will the ruble get off how to protect yourself from the surveillance of the boss and what cannot be done in negotiations with the Chinese

The dollar costs cheaper than 66 rubles. When will the Russian currency begin to fall again?

Photo: Pixabay.com / CC0 Creative Commons

The price of oil broke out $ 80 and for the first time since November 2014 is approaching $ 81. Today, an increase in oil prices finally noticed a ruble - the Russian currency for the first time since the beginning of August costs more than 66 rubles/$. If news does not come from the United States about new sanctions, then in the near future the ruble strengthening should continue, but by December it may be replaced by a fall.

• Oil is growing on the news on the decision of the OPEC+consortium not to increase production on the expectations of the new US sanctions against Iran, which entered into force on November and limit the export of oil from the country. Trafigura and Mercuria oil plotterers believe that Brent barrel can grow up to $ 100 already in the fourth quarter of 2018.
• If you do not take into account the unpredictable factor of the new sanctions of the United States, then the ruble will continue to grow with oil, and in the coming days the strengthening of the Russian currency can accelerate due to the next peak of tax payments of Russian companies, Raiffeisenbank analyst Denis Porusai believes that by the end of the week the ruble will break a mark of 65 rubles/$.
• Without bad news from the United States, the ruble strengthening should last before the end of the year, analysts agree. Dorm and Timur Nigmatullin from the Otkritie Broker IR in the absence of tough sanctions awaits the course of 60 rubles./$, Sergey Romanchuk from Metalinvestbank allows the ruble to strengthen up to 50–55 rubles/$.
• But in December, two threats await the Russian currency at once. Firstly, in December, the peak of the payments of Russian companies on external debt ($ 13.2 billion out of $ 26 billion in the fourth quarter) will have, analysts Raiffeisenbank notes in their report. Much will depend on the behavior of the largest exporters, which now it is not necessary to sell currency revenue in Russia, adds Denis Porusai. For example, if Gazprom will have to finance the construction of Northern Stream-2 alone, he will have to leave more currency revenue abroad-this will necessarily create pressure on the market, the expert argues.
• The second pressure factor for the ruble in December may be the expectations of the return of the Central Bank to the foreign exchange market. Against the backdrop of a sharp fall in the ruble, at the end of August, the regulator stopped buying a currency on the “budget rule” on the market and promised not to return to this practice before the end of the year. The purchases of the Central Bank currency were the most important determining factor in the ruble exchange rate, says Timur Nigmatullin: in the first half of the year, the regulator bought 60% of all currency entered the country ($ 30.6 of $ 53.2 billion). Before the New Year, speculators will begin to prepare for the return of the Central Bank in advance, and in this case the fall of the ruble inevitably, Nigmatullin concludes.

What am I to me?

If there are no surprises, then during this week the ruble will be strengthened. Since the beginning of October, when only a month will remain before the election in the United States, the probability of news about sanctions will increase. And by the end of the year you can wait for the weakening of the ruble and because of other factors.

MONEY

The business climate worsens

The requirements of Vladimir Putin to improve Russia's positions in international ratings of the comfort of doing business are slowly forgotten - and the business conditions themselves become worse. In 2017, the quality of state regulation in the field of business and control over corruption in Russia worsened, the World Bank data testify (RBC paid attention to them). At the same time, almost all other indicators like political stability and government’s effectiveness have improved the indicators of Russia. Already at the end of October, when the World Bank traditionally publishes its Doing Business rating, we will find out whether the government managed to fulfill Putin’s demand six years ago that Russia rises to it to 20th place. In 2017, we occupied the 35th.

Signals

New sanctions for chemical weapons

On Wednesday, the European Union will approve the new mechanism of sanctions for the use of chemical weapons, Reuters found out . The initiator of the changes was France, and the main reason, of course, is the poisoning of the Skripals. The new rules will allow you to make decisions on sanctions faster and avoid complex consultations with the governments of the countries supporting Russia, the agency writes. After the charges, the new sanctions against Russia have not yet been adopted by the UK, after the charges are charged, have not been adopted.

"Russian investigation"

Robert Müller was left without a curator

The investigation of the special prosecutor Robert Muller about Russia's interference in the US elections loses the curator in the Prosecutor General - Deputy Prosecutor General Rod Rosenstein wrote a resignation statement, the American media reports . Rosenstein had to be responsible for the investigation of Müller, because the prosecutor general Jeff Sehns, who was supposed to be by his position, was his defendant - he hid his contacts with the Russians from Congress. Now Rosenstein himself was under the blow-on Friday The New York Times found out that in May 2017 he proposed listening to Donald Trump and discussed with his colleagues the issue of removing Trump from the presidential position on the 25th amendment to the US Constitution (“is not able to exercise his powers and duties”).

Affiliate material

How to overcome growth problems?

Companies in the 21st century grow very quickly: the evolution of a tiny startup with a staff of less than ten people in a company with representative offices around the world can occur in just five years. However, far from always an increase in the scale of the company brings more orders and profits. Often, it is during the growth period that business is faced with fundamental problems that can lead to complete collapse. The director of the Business Zoom program of the Stockholm School of Economics in Russia, Alexei Popov, explained to us by specific examples of how to anticipate and overcome the company's growth crisis. You can read the full version of the texthere .

• Decide whether your business needs to become more. Alexey Popov is sure that before making an increase in the priority task of the business, you should think: what local goals you pursue and what you have already managed to achieve. Perhaps, you should first examine the market, accumulate experience and means, evaluate the risks of active expansion, consider various options for attracting investments and loans.

• Learn to trust and delegate - without this effective development is impossible. At the startup stage, it is easy to combine the roles of the owner, entrepreneur and manager. However, the larger the company, the less spaces in it for an indisputable volitional solution to one person on all issues. You can’t do without competent managers - they should entrust those areas that there is no time to deal with, but to focus on key goals and business strategies.

• Separate the goals of the company from personal. It is very important to hire people who will make decisions in the interests of business, first of all, this concerns the financial sphere. Between your decision and the output of money, the budget, financial plan and the financial director should stand.

What am I to me?

If you feel that your business is about to encounter a growth crisis or that your business is existential, you know-you are not alone. The same difficulties were overcome by all large companies, accumulating the vast "know-how growth". The new Business Zoom Stockholm School of Economics in Russia will help you to study someone else's experience and avoid avoiding mistakes.

PRACTICE

The authorities read the letters

The authorities most likely monitor your activity on the network from a working computer - in any case, more than 60% of companies do this. However, as statistics shows , the history of the browser and the sites viewed by employees are interested in the minority of the chiefs interviewed, but more than half of the employers are monitoring the e-mail. Those who wish to defend against this should take an example from the Tech industry in the USA: 93% of them set special software to limit the authorities access to their personal data. Details about how to protect yourself - here .

Business in China

If your company does not manage to sell its decision to the client, you must advise him to the proposal of your competitor - wildness for the Western mentality and a common thing for the Chinese market. It is pointless to use e-mail in China-the whole country communicates through the WeChat messenger, and through it a business partner will answer much faster. The director of the Chinese Department of the Russian Addreality manufacturer Dmitry Shklar has been conducting a business in this country for many years - for the Inc he talks about the features of entrepreneurship in China and how Russian brands (special relation to them) promote himself in this market.

Peter Mironenko