Real and imaginary increase in prices: which will actually hit the wallet hard

In the first week of the year, economists always monitor prices, and the first week of 2019 is special due to VAT increase. Rosstat recorded 0.5% inflation on January 1–9 - for the same period of 2018 it was 0.2%. But the current indicator is far from record and lower than the forecasts of analysts. In the first week of 2015, after the collapse of the ruble, inflation was 0.8%. VTB Capital predicted similar numbers (0.7–1.1%) and in the first week of 2019, but the forecast did not materialize (except that Rosstat, as often happens, later adjust the data retroactively). All this allows the Central Bank to adhere to its previous forecast of annual inflation - 5.5%. However, this is “the average temperature in the hospital”, in some cases, everything can be different.

• Retail prices for gasoline rose exactly within the limits of 1.6–1.7%permitted by the government within the framework of an agreement on price freezing. But this, of course, is an artificial figure: wholesale prices on the exchange grow almost 10 times faster - by 11-14%. This may mean that the retail prices after the expiration of the frost in the end of March can increase.
• More than usual prices rose for the cars themselves - from January 1, they went up in price in the amount of up to 5%. Auto -dealers laid out VAT growth in new prices, and another 2.5-3% were added by automakers - this is a cape for inflation and more than expected, weakening the ruble in 2018. At the same time, the car will become more expensive and insured - OSAGO since January 11 rose by 15–20%.
• The first week of the year, this is not yet visible, but real estate should be one of the most rise in price goods in 2019. Here, VAT has nothing to do with it-developers promise prices by at least 10% due to the new law on shared construction, and at the same time for the first time in several years, mortgage rates -Sberbank and VTB raised them by 0.6–1.2 percentage points from January 1.
• And I would like to, but it will not be possible to bypass the question of egg prices. After the news about the marketing course of the Udmurt factory, which began to sell eggs with nine, they are discussed by the whole Facebook today. Let us explain briefly: the eggs in December 2018 really rose by 26% of the last year, but this is due to the abnormally low prices of 2017. Compared to 2016, eggs are now most expensive by 5%. All this was explained by the head of the Analytical Center “SOECON” Andrei Sizov.

Peter Mironenko