Expert: The results of the elections in Turkey are tucked, the country is waiting for the strengthening of authoritarianism and the flight of capital

In Turkey, the counting of votes after past municipal elections is completed. The ruling party of Recep Tayyip Erdogan lost in the capital of Turkey Ankara and key to the president of the city - Istanbul. Kerim Khas, candidate of political sciences and expert in the field of international and Turkish-Russian relations, told The Insider, which is behind these defeats of power.

Most of the elections taking place in a particular country are somehow accompanied by violations. However, their number increases significantly and acquires other forms if democratic values, freedom of speech and human rights are violated.

Türkiye, especially in the past five years, has been experiencing an acute round of state development along the path of authoritarianism. The results of the elections of the heads of municipalities, which, of course, did not delight the current government, indicate in many ways that Turkish society does not according to the style of government that the country's political elite chose.

If we assume that violations would not be so massive, and the media would not be almost under the full control of the authorities, the result, demonstrated by opposition parties, would be significantly higher than the one that is available at this moment. Despite this, the fact that the opposition won in five of the six largest cities in Turkey, including Istanbul and Ankara, as well as Izmir, indicates that the Turkish political system still “passes steam”, like a colander with a small number of holes.

Moreover, residents of large and developed cities as Istanbul and Ankara have more possibilities for mobilization and consolidation than those voting who live in remote regions and in the east of the country. It should also be noted that the ruling elite, of course, expected a different vote, but even despite the control of the bodies that are responsible for the course of voting, it was not possible to ensure the advance. This may indicate that the real number of votes cast for opposition forces exceeds the officially voiced numbers.

As you know, speaking at the pre -election rallies, the Turkish president somehow involved methods that deeper the split in society, in other words: “who is not with us is with the“ terrorists ”.” Candidates of the opposition parties "did not play" on such feelings, and this turned out to be the factor that many residents of the country have been waiting for so long. This in many ways anticipated the results of the vote. Thus, especially supporters of the Prokurd party, which was officially recognized by the state as a player of the political field, were called pro -government forces only as supporters of the “terrorists”. Of course, the PSR party could no longer count on the support of the Kurds, and their number in the largest cities in Turkey is significant. However, in those areas of the southeast of the country where the control of non-governmental organizations during the voting progress is much less or absent, the PSR party received high results.

The results of the elections also show that the main loser is not so much the ruling party, but President Erdogan, who 25 years ago began his political career with the post of mayor of Istanbul, the head of which for the first time in many years will become an opposition candidate. In this context, it is worth recalling the words of the President of Turkey: "He who is defeated in Istanbul will be defeated in Turkey itself."

After the election, events can develop according to various scenarios.

As Erdogan himself repeatedly stated, in the event of the victory of opposition candidates, he may not allow them to work fully, creating certain obstacles. Moreover, there is a possibility that Turkey is waiting for the next early elections, as happened during the election of Erdogan to the presidency. Obviously, the country will experience the next domestic political trials, which for the authorities will become one of the most difficult over the past time.

The former comrades of Erdogan, who showed their intentions to create new political parties, can speed up this process by feeling that the power is in a position where the opposition forces have real support of the population.

Now massive unrest or revolution is not worth waiting, but, in any case, it is quite likely and expect the scenario of an even greater deepening of the country along the path of authoritarianism.

Separately, it is worth saying that in the near future great difficulties will be pursued by a significant part of large business, because it consists in many ways of the close circle of Erdogan. Anticipating a negative outcome, many owners of large companies began to dismiss their assets abroad and look for residence or citizenship in other countries, thereby ensuring their own security. This is also explained by the fact that the economic crisis intensifies in the country.

The country's leadership needs the financial support of Western countries, but for this he will have to abandon the authoritarian style. In this context, it is obvious that the president of the country will most likely be in a closed circle, when it is no longer possible to change the course (there is no road back), and economic support from the outside is required more and more.