The causes and consequences of the accident on the Druzhba oil pipeline, the searches of Stalingula and the Central Bank against translations

Pollution on the Druzhba pipeline dropped confidence in Russian oil. But it will not drop the price for it

Oil pollution in the Druzhba oil pipeline, which accounts for up to 8% of the annual import of the European Union, discuss no less in the oil market than new American sanctions against Iran. The accident has already caused another conflict between Russia and Belarus and raised the price of oil around the world. The Bell figured out the causes and amount of damage, which is measured by hundreds of millions of dollars.

What happened

• On April 19, Belneftekhim complained of a sharp deterioration in the quality of the Russian mix of Urals, which enters the Belarusian refinery under the Druzhba oil pipeline. Almost immediately, it became clear that we were talking about oil pollution by chloride. Belarus had to stop the export of light petroleum products to Poland, to Ukraine and the Baltic countries, Europe - to stop the import of oil on Friendship, and to Vladimir Putin to listen to the claims of Alexander Lukashenko. Problems with the oil pipeline have become one of the factors in the growth of world oil prices (last week the Brent cost exceeded $ 75 per barrel - for the first time since October 2018).
• Moscow promised to restore the operation of the oil pipeline in two weeks. As of Monday, April 29, pure oil in Friendship approached the border of Belarus, but did not reach its refineries. Belneftekhim insists that the content of chlorine in Russian oil "exceeds the norm by ten times."

Damage

• The refinery in Belarus, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Germany and the Czech Republic are technologically tied to the Druzhba oil pipeline. About 65 million tons of oil are pumped on it a year - this is a quarter of the total Russian exports. About a third of this oil is processed by Belarus, almost everything else receives the EU. In recent years, the oil pipeline has given about 8% of the EU oil.
• Belneftekhim, processing Friendship oil, estimated the volume of dirty oil in a pipeline of 1 million tons - for current quotes it is about $ 500 million. Only the Belarusian company estimates the minor revenue at $ 100 million. Direct losses in the form of chlorine equipment at the refinery are relatively small: it is several million dollars.

Who is to blame?

• It is still incomprehensible. Transneft, operating the Druzhba oil pipeline, said that the oil was intentionally polluted through the Samara-Unech, belonging to the private Samaratrande-Terminal. It answered that back in 2017, the Node of Nefteravalka LLC with an authorized capital of 10,000 rubles, which belongs to its general director and accepts oil of four small manufacturers. The association of small oil companies says that for such pollution, as much raw materials should have passed through the point as small companies simply do not get. Why the oil metering unit was generally in the hands of a private company is unknown.
• “The situation is very similar to a regular mess,” says Marcel Salikhov, head of the Economic Department of Energy and Finance of the Higher School of Economics. “It turns out that neither Transneft nor Belarus controlled the quality of oil, which walked further through the pipe.” The FSB is already involved in the investigation, and one of the options under consideration is sabotage. Experts do not believe in this version.

Why is it important?

The problem of the input quality of Russian oil for Europe is systemic: it is associated with the drop in the quality of the Volga oil and with an obsolete control system that is not able to monitor pollution. The quality of Urals and before this incident did not like European importers: Russia directs the low -hearted East Siberian oil to China, and a less high -quality sulfuric from Bashkiria and the Volga region to Europe.

The accident will affect consumers' trust in Russian oil - some of them have already suspended procurement until the circumstances are clarified, says Marcel Salikhov, head of the Economic Department of Energy and Finance of the Higher School of Economics. But he is unlikely to affect the cost of Urals in relation to Brent, he believes. Recently, the Urals discount in relation to Brent has decreased from $ 2-3 to a barrel to zero-due to the deficit of heavy oil after sanctions against Venezuela and Iran. In the near future, the parity will most likely remain: the situation with sanctions is unlikely to change, and there is nothing to replace Urals now.

Exclusive

"Say thanks for not putting you face on the floor"

Since the last Saturday, the whole Telegram has been discussing searches with the relatives of the alleged owner of the Stalingulag channel Alexander Gorbunov. Stalingulag is one of the most popular political telegram channels in Russia. He has more than 300 thousand subscribers, and in his posts he most often criticizes the Russian authorities. Stalingulag himself announced the searches, again without confirming Gorbunov’s involvement in the channel. The Bell, with the help of the author of the channel, managed to contact Gorbunov’s mother and find out the details of the searches. According to her, the investigators said something slurred about the fact that a false call about mining came from the Gorbunov apartment, referred to a “signal from Moscow” and, after a six-hour search, left without any complaints or accusations.

MONEY

Central Bank against translations

The struggle of the Central Bank with laundering predictably reached the money transfers in the near abroad. As Vedomosti found out, from April 16, the regulator set limits on transfers to China, Vietnam, Kyrgyzstan (100 thousand rubles a month) and Kazakhstan (150 thousand). A source of Vedomosti explained that foreigners trading in the markets use money transfers to pay parties of goods without registration as an individual entrepreneur and the creation of a legal entity. Limits are unlikely to affect the transfer of labor migrants (on average 35 thousand rubles), but small and medium -sized businesses will lay a new restriction on the price of goods.

Yuan instead of pounds

The new consequence of Brexit (which, however, is not clear when it happens and whether it happens at all) - the pound risks losing the status of reserve currency. Among the FT 80 respondents, the central banks with the total assets of $ 7 trillion a third said that they would reduce the share of the pound in reserves. This will mean a weakening of the British currency and the increase in the cost of borrowing in pounds. As a replacement, managers look closely at Yuan (it already accounts for almost 15% of Russian reserves, although for other reasons) and the Bonds of developing countries.

PRACTICE

Generation Z rescues retail

Large retailers are not the best of times for themselves, and the main reason is in millennials who prefer online shopping shops. Businessweek talks about unexpected salvation for trade malls, which will bring with them the following millennials generation Z: 95% of them go to shopping centers at least once every three months. For comparison, there are only 75%among millennials. The main reason for the popularity is that the generation that has grown with gadgets in the hand especially appreciates the time spent without mobile devices - this also applies to shopping. Retailers are betting on Z and trying to attract even more young people, focusing on their preferences, they send them notifications about discounts when they go to the shopping center and make special zones for instagram photos. The tastes of the generation are also taken into account when distributing sites, giving preference to shops that they like.

Chinese problems Amazon

No matter how large and profitable the company is, it has no guarantee for success in China. Fortune talks about failures in the Chinese market of Western giants Amazon and Starbucks, which are rapidly overtaken by local competitors. For the conquest of China, Amazon built warehouses and data centers in the country, created loyalty programs to local sellers, increased investments and even bought the largest online book-ruler in China, but the company's share in the market is still less than 1%. Starbucks has started even more successfully and since 1999 opened more than 3,700 establishments, but now he has a competitor - Luckin, who launched in 2017, who managed to become a unicorn with the help of initial financing in the first seven months and opened 2370 stores in 28 Chinese cities by 2019. The main reason for the failure of Western companies is the difference in cultures. Local companies are guided by the Chinese who do not want to pay extra for additional services such as delivery of goods home. Chinese firms are also growing faster, because their employees mainly work more, according to the concept of 996: this is work from 9 a.m. to 9 pm 6 days a week.