Russians in “scissors” debts, the United States without the Grinkart lottery, the clinical death of the business and the new flying taxi

The Russians fell into the "scissors" between debts and income. Central Bank and the market are afraid of a new crisis

Russians have almost no free money, they reduce consumption, do not expect improvements and not only take new unsecured loans, but are more and more re -being re -exposed, follows from the statistics of the Central Bank and the data of sociologists, which Vedomosti and Kommersant write about today. A new large crisis is brewing in this market.

Without money and optimism

Yesterday we learned that two -thirds (65%) of Russian families have no savings, and most of the others do not exceed three -month income.

• Today it turned out that the already poor expectations of Russians worsened: the quarterly index of consumer trust (according to The Conference Board and Nielsen) fell to a historical minimum - 62 points. The index has been falling since 2014, then it was 83.
• Only 25% of buyers (minus 5 pp) believe in improving their financial prospects, and the share of ready to spend money fell to 14% (minus 7 percentage points). The share of consumers who have free money decreased from 77% to 72%.
• The number of Russians seeking to save has grown from 62% to 69%. The share of respondents who switches to more affordable products increased to 57%.
• The fall in consumer trust is confirmed by other data. Retailers see that buyers are very sensitive to prices and rational in purchases. Shopping centers note the drop in revenue per square meter in a non -food segment, and this is a sure sign of a reduction in spontaneous consumption.

Trap for people and banks

Simultaneously with the fall of income, consumer lending is growing, in which the most dangerous trends for the market intensify, “Vedomosti” write . The Central Bank is alarming the speed of the process: it can be a trap for both the population and banks, quotes the publication of the first deputy chairman of the Central Bank Dmitry Tulina.

• In the first quarter, the Russians took 1.9 trillion rubles of loans. More than half (1.05 trillion) - inappropriate unsecured loans. The issuance of retail loans over the year increased by 16%, and a mortgage - only by 3.5% (Frank RG data).
• In March alone, the portfolio of unsecured consumer loans grew by 2% of February. Growth occurs primarily due to an increase in the size of loans, the analysts of the Central Bank write in the last ballot "What Trends are talking about."
• They explain this to the expenses of the population for large purchases and an increase in reservation on loans with a rate above 10% from April 1, which is why banks could accelerate loans.
• The real reason may be different - it is profitable for banks to give a larger loan and for a long time, explains the first deputy chairman of the board of the Sovcombank Sergey Sobimsky: "The memory of the problems of 2014 was short."
• Many new loans are refinancing existing debt. The borrower may have 4-5 loans, which are replaced by one larger, at a lower rate, but for a long time, said Fitch analyst Alexander Danilov. As a result, the debt load of existing borrowers is growing. Danilov also sees the risk of repeating the crisis of 2014, when a quarter did not return from the most expensive loans.

The growth of retail lending is “an objective process, it is not necessary to prohibit it,” says Tulin, promising to control the growth rate on the Central Bank. If the economic situation is stable, the debt load can grow for a long time without visible consequences: “It is unlikely that in the near future a large share of loans will go on delay,” Vedomosti quoted the chief manager for the risk management of Raiffeisenbank Andrei Poryadin.

Why is it important

The fall in income with rapid inflating of a credit bubble means “scissors” for the population. With any serious economic shock, the crisis in the banking system is seen very probable. The Central Bank is trying to limit the growth of consumers and introduces the maximum debt load of the borrower, but this does not help very much.

MONEY

Every fifth under threat

The blocking of accounts always threatens the clinical death of Russian small and medium -sized businesses, and now we know that almost every tenth company has experienced it last year, RBC writes with reference to the study of Magram Market Research. In 2018, 20% of companies faced blocking accounts, 43% of them announced serious consequences. True, in half the cases, the cause of the blocking was the errors of the companies themselves. But among the remaining reasons, blocking by banks prevail: for laundering and without explanation.

Getting into a banking “black list” is big problems with counterparties, and it is not easy to rehabilitate. Because of this, the company goes into cash calculations. And also - in order not to pay 10–20% for transferring from a blocked account to another bank. We analyzed in detail how this profitable scheme is arranged for banks.

Sberbank did not help

The largest independent refinery in Russia (9 million tons) stopped work - Antipinsky in the Tyumen region, Writes Vedomosti. This asset of the New Stream group Dmitry Mazurov is managed by Sberbank, but even the Gosbank loans were not enough to pay for oil. Transneft stopped supplying, the path to the oil products exchange for the plant is closed due to failure to fulfill obligations. The fate of the company ready to go bankrupt depends on whether the Azerbaijani SOCAR wants to buy it, and on the process of proceedings in London with the Trading “daughter” of VTB about freezing the assets of the plant for 225 million euros. The refineries, which produces mainly diesel fuel, greatly crushed the first tax maneuver when the government introduced a fee for dark oil products.

Partners The Bell

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• Unfortunately, if you have more than one business trip per month, you can’t just “give money out of the cash register” or “to book somehow yourself, and then we will compensate”. To properly conduct business trips, the right reporting documents will be required: order, report, acts, accounts from hotels and landing. It is better to pay everything officially from a legal entity in advance.
• A group trip must have a coordinator. Individual people, alas, will select convenient for themselves, and not for everyone. The main thing is that the coordinator find out about this in advance. And, of course, the budget of the business trip should be calculated in advance. Not approximately in the mind or in words, but in a special estimate available to everyone.
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Signals

Grinkart in Trampovski

The US President presented a plan for a new immigration policy based on a point system. It will make it difficult to obtain a residence permit in the United States for family ties, but he will prefer well -paid specialists with high qualifications and knowledge of the English language. Now 66% Grinkart is issued on family grounds, with the introduction of the plan, 57% of the cards will be issued on the basis of the applicant’s skills. Trump called the Lottery Grinkart (87,000 people in 2018), Trump called it meaningless and contradicting American values ​​- it will be discontinued. The name Green Card itself will be derived from circulation - now it is a type of Build America visa.

PRACTICE

Flying taxi from Tencent

In the future market of flying taxi - a new application for a breakthrough. The German startup Lilium, which is invested in Chinese Tencent, successfully conducted the first test of his five -seater Lilium Jet aircraft, writes The Verge. Airtax has two wings and 36 electric engines that allow the machine to produce a vertical take -off. Five people will fit in the device: four passengers and a pilot, although a taxi can fly without it at automatic control mode. From competitors (and Boeing, Airbus, and Uber), Lilium taxi differs in a speed (up to 300 km/h) and a range (300 km). The company plans to launch the service by 2025.

Millions of Cannes Festival

The Cannes Film Festival, which is now in France, is impressive not only by the cultural program, but also by the large amounts that are spent on its holding, says Business Insider. One of the largest articles of expenses is security, to which up to $ 2 million, and the red carpet for $ 1 million. On the main prize of the festival - a gold palm branch - the organizers spend up to $ 30 thousand. Separate expenses are associated with the Barrière le Majestic Cannes hotel located on the famous embankment, in which the stars traditionally stop and the opening and closing ceremonies of the festival are held: the welcome and farewell parties cost almost $ 350 thousand, of which $ 132 thousand have left only for caviar last year, and the most long number will cost the guests almost to the guests. At $ 45 thousand. It is necessary to spend money not only by the organizers, but also to participants who spend on average from $ 500 thousand to $ 1 million for a team’s trip to the festival.