Self -portrait of the Russian economy

The dynamics of demand for cars indicates a deep stagnation of consumption

If you choose a schedule that best describes the current state of the Russian economy, today, unlike zero, this will no longer be a dynamics of oil prices. The Government and the Bank of Russia are quite successfully engaged in the “sterilization” of oil outskirts: even if the quotes of “black gold” go up, then all additional revenues are immediately removed and placed in the “cubic”.

The current well -being of the economy is much better illustrated by another schedule - internal sales of cars (in pieces). Since this indicator consists of two components - the volume of sales of cars and light commercial vehicles - it simultaneously characterizes consumer and investment sentiments. The data suggests that after the shocks of 2014 in Russia, the sale of cars has fallen by about a third - and has not been growing since then.

For a long time, the Achilles fifth Russian economy was considered to be the stagnation of investments, and although it was still not really overcome, a much larger problem, apparently rooted in consumption (both in the scheduled and aggregate value of cars are sold much more than light commercial transport).

The insufficiency of consumer demand for new machines can potentially be explained in two ways.

First of all, circumstances associated with the current dynamics of development and the structure of the Russian economy play an important role. The new machine is the most expensive consumer product, the acquisition of which indicates the achievement of a certain level of income and/or confidence in relation to their future (in the latter case, buyers calmly resort to borrowing).

The long -standing subsidence of real incomes could not but affect consumer moods. Obviously, to restore sales of cars, it is primarily necessary that the steady increase in income begins, and covering not only the most highly profitable categories or employed in certain segments of the economy (for example, in export industries), and frontally the widest layers of the population. In other words, it will be necessary that many of those who have never entered the car dealerships to the new car and be able to buy a new car.

Meanwhile, within the framework of the current economic policy, this task is not actually set. Yes, we talk a lot about the fight against poverty, but these conversations are more likely social (we need to help the most disadvantaged!) Than the economic dimension. With all the official manipulations with the statistics of the dynamics of real income (however, that 8%, that 11% of the fall over the five -year plan 2014-2018 is not so large), their distribution, which largely determines the structure of consumer demand, remains behind the scenes. It is no accident that such a specific dynamics in the domestic market demonstrates a segment of premium cars where sales do not fall, but, on the contrary, grow (for 11 months of 2019 - plus 4%). Note that the production of machines of this segment in Russia is practically absent, and the increase in sales thereby fuel mainly not Russian, but foreign economies.

It turns out that what is produced in Russia for the domestic market is no one to buy

- And this applies not only to cars. Why do business to invest in expanding production and improving product quality, if the vast majority of consumers simply cannot afford to pay for it? Stagnation of consumption determines the stagnation of investments, the economy does not develop, income does not grow, undermining consumption. A vicious circle.

In fairness: there is an alternative explanation for a decline in sales of machines - perhaps it is not only about domestic Russian problems. After almost a five percent collapse of the world car market, which first affected all continents in 2018-2019, according to the forecast of the Moody's agency, 2020 will bring a reduction in sales by another 1%. It would be okay if the next global recession was approaching, as many believe. But what if the great era of the car is suitable for sunset?

So, even in the most automobileized country, the USA, the share of driver’s rights among the younger age cohorts of the population today is about 10–20 percent points lower than thirty years earlier. Such a trend can initiate from a variety of reasons - urbanization, development of public transport, car sharing and other alternative forms of movement in space, the spread of a healthy lifestyle, as well as active regulatory efforts directly aimed at reducing the number of cars on the roads in a number of countries and cities (including in Russia). All this ultimately leads to an increase in the relative value of owning their own car and a mass rejection of it as excessive luxury.

True, such a plot does not promise the Russian economy anything good. The fewer cars (and the more electrical and hybrid ones among them), the less the need for gasoline. This, in turn, cannot but strike a heavy blow to both the Russian oil industry and the economy as a whole.