Seven old people and one Buttijich. The primrase of democrats in the United States brought the first surprises

The preliminary elections of the Democratic Party, which will be determined by a single presidential candidate from the party, started on February 3 in Iowa - exactly nine months before the presidential election. Bernie Sanders, who scored 2 thousand more votes in Iowa, turned out to be the most popular in Iowa, but the young Pete Buttijich turned out to be from the unequal cutting of the districts ahead, ahead of Sanders by only 0.1% (whoever is surprising, it is worth remembering that Trump became a president almost 3 million less than Hillary Clannon).

Features of votes count

The presidential candidate from the Democratic Party will be nominated during the National Convention, scheduled for July 13-16. There, GOLC will submit his 4051 delegate from all fifty states. Before that, preliminary elections will be held in each state, which will determine who the delegates will support. Each state is divided into districts (depending on the population), and delegates from each district undertake to vote as voters vote. The boundaries of the districts and the number of delegates are adjusted in accordance with the census of the population (the latter was carried out in 2010).

This time, the counting of votes in Aiova stretched for several days. The confusion arose due to a good intention to make the elections more transparent and introduce the latest technologies into the process formed in the XVIII century. Until now, according to tradition, only the number of delegates has been reported whose votes were won by this or that candidate. This year, the votes of voters were also decided to indicate. At the same time, not simple primaries (the usual elections with the submission of ballots), but Kokus (a collection of supporters or members of a political party or political movement) from several stages are held in Ayov. The process may seem difficult, but in fact resembles the children's game "Hot chairs". Voters come to the sites and occupy a certain part of the hall reserved for the supporters of each candidate. In half an hour, they try to lure as many people as possible to their side, after which a count is announced, during which candidates who have not passed the minimum threshold of 15% of support are removed. Then there is a reorganization that takes another half hour - voters who advocated the loser of the candidate can support one of the leaders, after which the final calculation is carried out.

Pete Buttijich, whose name is still not all Americans pronounced, won by the number of delegates, but lost when counting votes, since more people voted for him in rural districts with a lower population density, but with a significant number of delegates.

If Sanders was originally one of the favorites, then the Bottijich championship and especially the failure of Joe Biden became a surprise ( more about the main candidates and their programs - here ). Twenty and even ten years ago, these results would be of great importance for the course of the election race. Over the past half a century, voters of Iowov have successfully predicted the one who would receive a nomination from the Democratic Party 8 out of 12 times. The popular political legend says that it was thanks to a decisive victory in the preliminary elections in Aiov that the not very popular candidate Barack Obama began to rapidly win the hearts of Americans in 2008. In a word, traditionally Kokus in Iowa and the primaries in New Hampshire (which will pass on February 11) are symbolic. Preliminary elections in these states are held before others, and the winners are considered the favorites in the struggle for nomination for the presidency, because many Americans who do not delve into the subtleties of candidate programs make an eye on the voting results in the first states. That is, they support a person who is considered the most likely winner.

But this time, the results of the first primaries are not worth it too seriously. Two small (32nd and 42nd places in terms of the population), non-presenting staff (85% of Ayova residents and 90% of the residents of New Hampshire-White) cannot set the tone for the democrats, who in general elections are largely based on national minorities. Visconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida became fundamentally important for victory in the last elected cycles - the so -called “big four” of the oscillating states, which will actually decide the outcome of the race. According to polls, Joe Biden is the leading there (Michigan - 28%, Pennsylvania - 27%, Florida - 34%) and Bernie Sanders (Wisconsin - 24%).

Success in Iowa, of course, is of great importance for the campaign of Pete Bouthychich, although it is too early to compare it with Obama. Optimism can be given to the young candidate that, judging by Ayov, his supporters are evenly distributed throughout the state, including large cities and rural areas, democrats, independent voters and those whom he calls “future former Republicans” voted for him. The latter are voters who voted for Donald Trump in 2016, but not supporting the president now. These are mainly the left Republicans, who in the 1960-1980s were more liberal than right democrats. Obviously, they will not vote for progressive (left) democrats (Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren), but the centrists can count on their support and, in particular, Pit Buttijich, who in the mayor’s elections in 2011 and 2015 received wide support of the Republican voters and defeated the Republican in the Republican state of Indiana.

Democrats, independent voters and those whom he calls "future former Republicans" voted for Buttijich.

In addition, Buttijich defeated the important indicator - he scored the most votes at the second stage of the cokus, which means that there are two in the list of preferences among most of the inhabitants of Aiova (we note that a significant number of voters did not join the supporters of Bernie Sanders, the core of his electorate did not join the main role). In the era of polarization of parties, a war veteran in Afghanistan, a graduate of Harvard and Oxford, a homosexual, who officially entered into a marriage with his life partner, Pete Buttijich is a kind of postmodern image of the “good old times” of a democratic party: a young, energetic, witty, levocentric, a native of the “rusty belt” of the US Former mayor of the city in the Republican state of Indiana. Youth in these elections is an important competitive advantage - the main candidates from the Democrats (Sanders, Bayden, Bloomberg) already under 80, and Elizabeth Warren, and Trump himself has already exceeded 70, against their background, 38 -year -old Buttijich - the voice of a new generation. However, on the example of Sanders, it is clear that the Zumers can vote for boomers.

Bernie Sanders can also call himself a winner - many analysts again underestimated him. Voting in Aiova confirmed that his economic program and the political platform were finding a lively response. It is important to note that, unlike 2016, the campaign of Bernie Sanders is concentrated on attracting national minorities, which clearly has its fruits.

Looking back at the 2016 election, the Democrats are more interested in a person who can defeat the current president. On a scale of the country, Joe Biden, who took fourth place in Ayov, is still the leader. He is ahead of Donald Trump by about 6%, Bernie Sanders by 3-4%, Elizabeth Warren is also about 3%, while Pete Buttijich is only 1%ahead. Do not forget that the ex-mail of New York billionaire Michael Bloomberg did not take part in the primaries in Ayov

We should not forget that the ex-mail of New York billionaire Michael Bloomberg, which takes 4th place, ahead of Buttijich and quickly gaining popularity, did not take part in the primaries in Ayov. Bloomberg decided to miss the first symbolic primaries and start the race in March.

Despite the failure in Iowa, Joe Biden remains the main contender, enlisted the support of the establishment. Its main advantage at this stage is significant support among the African American population. He is supported by 51% of black voters (in many ways because he was Vice President under Obama, which he mentions in every convenient and inconvenient case), followed by Bernie Sanders-15%, for Pyu Buttijich-only 2% of the dark-skinned ones. After a loss in Aiova, many observers hastened to announce that the African Americans would turn away from Joe Bayden in the same way that they turned away from Hillary Clinton in 2008, ensuring the leadership of Barack Obama. But while it’s too early to talk about it, you should wait for South Carolina - the first truly representative state.

Primary elections in South Carolin, where national minorities account for 60% of voters in primaries, will be held on February 29, after New Hampshire (February 11) and Nevada (February 22). Considering the party’s party polarization that increased since 2016, African American and Latin Americans became an important base of the Democratic Party. So in 2020, South Carolina will play a more significant role than in all past preliminary elections.

The one who conquers the delegates of South Carolina will become a real winner before the super -vodnik on March 3, when the states with the largest number of delegates - 1357. The chaos in Aiova revealed only one thing: the split exists not only through the Democrats/Republicans, but also within the Democratic Party. The votes of voters were distributed evenly between the progressive (left -wing) and the moderate wing: Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Andrew Young, supporting universal basic income and universal medical insurance, gained 51821 votes. And the centrists are Joe Biden, Pete Buttijich and Amy Klobuchar - 54894 votes. It seems that the struggle for the White House in this race will be even more severe for the Democrats than in 2016.

Alexandra Filippenko

Senior Researcher at the Institute of the United States and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences