The Ministry of Finance rewrote the budget taking into account Putin's message

GDP growth will accelerate a little, oil will become cheaper a little, salaries will grow slightly, and the profit of the companies will decrease a little - these are macroeconomic parameters for the current and two nearest years, counted by the Ministry of Finance, taking into account the president’s social initiatives. The government does not specify how much the real disposable income of the population will grow.

What you need to know about the macro -propriet of the Ministry of Finance

Macro -prognosis is a document on the basis of which the federal budget is being corrected. The January message of Putin brought such additional expenses that it was necessary to adjust it for the first time not only for the current year, but also for the entire budget three -year -old. The details of the document publish RBC.

• The main change is the prognosis of GDP growth in 2020: the indicator will grow by 0.2 percentage points, from 1.7% to 1.9%. This coincides with the forecasts of analysts of the Central Bank, predicting the limited influence of social measures on the economy. The money in it simply will not delay: having received social assistance, low -income Russians will spend it on imports, they claimed. The Ministry of Economic Development predicted +0.3 pp. To GDP growth.
• The prognosis of GDP growth for 2021 was saved at 3.1%, for 2022 - at 3.2%.
• The Ministry of Finance expects to accelerate the growth of real disposable incomes of the population, but how much does not say. The Ministry of Economic Development estimated their additional growth of 0.5 percentage points, up to 2%, Analysts of the Central Bank - at 0.45-0.55 percentage points.
• The three -year -old budget will grow by 1.4 trillion rubles, or 2.3%, and will remain surplus (0.6% in 2021, 0.3% in 2022). It has already included 700 billion rubles from the Bank of Russia, which he will receive from the sale of his package in Sberbank for the money of the Federal Tax Service. We wrote in detail about this transaction, its structure and goalshere .
• The average annual dollar rate for 2020 in the new forecast was reduced to 63.9 rubles per dollar from 65.7 rubles. The oil barrel is slightly (1.5%), but the oil and gas revenues of the budget will grow by 50 billion rubles due to the tax maneuver.
• The wage fund in 2020 will increase by 178 billion rubles, to 26.1 trillion rubles (+0.7%), but the profit of organizations will decrease by 448 billion rubles to 27.9 trillion rubles (minus 1.6%). A similar picture is seen by the Ministry of Finance in the next two years, and the ministry sees this only the risk of not receiving income tax.

Why is it important

Impressive expenses for social initiatives from Putin's Epistle (more than 2 trillion rubles for three years) are balanced on paper without any problems. However, for this I had to come up with a scheme with the transfer of money by the Federal Tax Service through the purchase of a share in the main state bank from the Central Bank, and there is no second Sberbank in Russia. Maternity capital and payments to poor families will probably improve their well -being, but the total economic effect of these measures is still modest.