The budget for the message, coronavirus threatens almost everyone, dismissal in Vimpelkom and Valentine's Day for friends

The Ministry of Finance was able to balance the budget for Putin's message, but only due to one -time measures

GDP growth will accelerate slightly, oil will become cheaper a little, salaries will grow a bit, and the profit of the companies will decrease a little - these are macroeconomic parameters for the budget for the current and two next years, counted by the Ministry of Finance, taking into account the president’s social initiatives. The government does not specify how much the real disposable income of the population will grow.

What you need to know about the macro -propriet of the Ministry of Finance

Macro -prognosis is a document on the basis of which the federal budget is being corrected. The January message of Putin brought such additional expenses that it was necessary to adjust it for the first time not only for the current year, but also for the entire budget three -year -old. The details of the document publish RBC.

• The main change is the economic growth forecast in 2020: GDP will grow by 0.2 percentage points, from 1.7% to 1.9%. This coincides with the forecasts of analysts of the Central Bank, predicting the limited influence of social measures from the message. Money in the economy will simply not delay: having received social assistance, low -income Russians will spend it on imports, they claimed. The Ministry of Economic Development predicted +0.3 pp. To GDP growth.
• The prognosis of GDP growth for 2021 was saved at 3.1%, for 2022 - at 3.2%.
• The Ministry of Finance expects to accelerate the growth of real disposable incomes of the population, but how much does not say. The Ministry of Economic Development estimated their additional growth of 0.5 percentage points, up to 2%, Analysts of the Central Bank - at 0.45-0.55 percentage points.
• The three -year -old budget will grow by 1.4 trillion rubles, or 2.3%, and will remain surplus (0.6% in 2021, 0.3% in 2022). It has already included 700 billion rubles from the Bank of Russia, which the budget will receive from the sale of its package in Sberbank for the money of the Federal Tax Service. We wrote in detail about this transaction, its structure and goalshere .
• The average annual dollar rate for 2020 in the new forecast was reduced to 63.9 rubles per dollar from 65.7 rubles. The barrel of oil in rubles slightly (1.5%) will become cheaper, but oil and gas revenues of the budget will grow by 50 billion rubles due to tax maneuver.
• The wage fund in 2020 will increase by 178 billion rubles, to 26.1 trillion rubles (+0.7%), but the profit of organizations will decrease by 448 billion rubles to 27.9 trillion rubles (minus 1.6%). A similar picture is seen by the Ministry of Finance in the next two years, and the ministry finds only the risk of not paying income tax.

What am I to me?

Impressive expenses for social initiatives from Putin's Epistle (more than 2 trillion rubles for three years) are balanced on paper without any problems. However, for this I had to come up with a scheme with the transfer of money by the Federal Tax Service through the purchase of a share in the main state bank from the Central Bank, and there is no second Sberbank in Russia. Maternity capital and payments to poor families will probably improve their well -being, but the total economic effect of these measures is still modest.

Bellclub

Oleg Zhelezko from DA Vinci Capital

On February 26, a meeting will be held with Oleg Zhelezko, the founder and control partner of one of the most active investment groups - DA Vinci Capital. The piece of iron is responsible for her investment strategy. Let's talk about what to invest in the midst of the global epidemic, what will happen to the Russian and global venture markets and how to properly manage an investment portfolio. You can get to the meeting by buying tickets at the link .

MONEY

Dismissal and Varangians in Vimpelkom

Vasil Latsanich, General Director of Vimpelkom, who moved two years ago from MTS, will leave the company in June. This was announced by the maternal holding Veon, which today published annual reporting. Those who take his place are not disclosed, but, according to Kommersant, it can be the executive co -director of the head company Kaan Terzioglu. The reason for the dismissal is the failure in the consumer segment in Russia, the Vedomosti write . The Russian unit reduced the general revenue and revenue from mobile communications for the year (2%). Veon directly indicates Russia (and Uzbekistan) as the reason for the insufficiently good results of the entire holding. Over the year, revenue decreased by 2.5%, to $ 8.86 billion.

Two -thirds of the coronavirus

Coronavirus infection can be more insidious than it seems: a model of experts of the World Health Organization (WHO) predicts that two -thirds of the world's population can become infected in the worst scenario, Bloomberg writes . This is not a reason for panic, but an occasion for all kinds of care: modeling proceeds from the assumption that each carrier infects two or three people and that people with moderate symptoms were not covered by quarantine in Juna and the province of Hubay. Whether this or close scenario is being implemented, they will show the coming weeks, and it is especially careful not to follow China, but for the dynamics of infection in other countries. Meanwhile, you can read an interview with a person who survived coronavirus with the most severe symptoms (in English).

Forbes chose the best hotels

The American Forbes published its annual guide for the best hotels, restaurants and a spa of the world and for the first time Russian hotels fell into it - five from Moscow and St. Petersburg. The top, for example, included Moscow Four Seasons and St. Regis on Nikolskaya, who settled in the pre-revolutionary residence of Count Orlov-Davydov, as well as St. Petersburg Astoria and Belmond Grand Hotel with numbers named after Dostoevsky and Stravinsky. It is not clear why the authors of the guide remembered Russia only now - perhaps this is due to the fact that this year they generally seriously expanded their geography. In addition to Russia, the guide, which has been compiled for the 62nd time, debuted hotels from Antigua, the Bahamas, Cambodia, Egypt, Fiji, French Polynesia, India and other countries. Each hotel is evaluated by experts on “900 objective parameters”, Forbes writes.

EDUCATION

The course in Silicon Valley from the creators of The Bell and "Russian norms!"

Why do startups fail? Because in conditions of uncertainty and traditional business tools and management models are not suitable. Not everyone takes this into account. The Lean Startup approach teaches the founders to be flexible, quickly check the hypotheses and avoid large injections at the initial stages. One of the main principles of the “lean startup” is to work on the cycle: I created - appreciated - learned. First, make a minimum working version of the product, evaluate the consumer reaction, and then decide whether to continue to go the chosen course or change the direction. Professor Stanford and Business School in Berkeley will tell you about this and much more to you for a ten -day educational course, which will be held from March 29 to April 9 in California. Intensive for entrepreneurs, the number of places is limited .

PRACTICE

What to do without a couple for all lovers day

Even if it seems to you that almost everything is celebrated by Valentine's Day, this is not so: even in the USA this share in ten years has fallen by 13%. The admiration of a romantic relationship in America was replaced by a friendly celebration, which poured into the informal “Galentine's Day” on February 13 (Galentines Day, from the English Gal - “friend”, regardless of gender), and the Americans do not spare money at all. According to one of the latest surveys, gifts for friends for friends this year will increase to almost $ 15, which is more than twice as much as 2017. Initially, the idea of ​​“Galentine's Day” appeared ten years ago in an episode of the comedy of NBC “Parks and recreation areas”, where one of the heroines celebrated a holiday with her friends on February 13. Retaillers supported the idea of ​​marketing: on Amazon and Etsy there are whole guides for gifts on February 13, as well as for Christmas and Thanksgiving. Read more on Bloomberg.

Poetry as a business flare

Reading poetry in the morning helps to achieve success in business - at least, one Irish theologian and poet believes so. The duality, the ambiguity of words and thoughts, an attempt to solve their plan - all this is also useful for entrepreneurs. The spontaneous presentation (the so -called Elevator Pitch) is a poetry itself, I am confident in QUARTZ, because in a short time you need to create such a figurative picture so that the interlocutor can finish the right yourself, and you achieve the goal.