To whom Durov can sell Telegram and the worst crisis for Runet-in an interview with the leaders of the largest IT companies

The topic of release is a buyer for Telegram

This week we had to write a lot about Pavel Durov, but we are not to blame - the Telegram team changed its offer for investors several times , which ultimatelyremain without the Ton blockchain, and without Gram cryptocurrency. Now, in order to pay off all investors, Durov may have to look for a buyer to part of his package in Telegram. We figured out how much money he might need. And also - we talked with investors about who may be interested in buying Telegram, which still does not have a monetization model.

What's happened?

Having invested in the new Duorov brothers, investors risked $ 1.7 billion in 2018, and the risk was realized - in the form of a protracted Telegram trial with the American SEC regulator, which did not like Durov’s idea to give cryptocurrency to American investors.

We do not know how many times the founder of Telegram has already regretted this, but we can assume that Durov has intense times ahead: he has to pay off investors, first with American ones, then with all the others - and the sooner he finds money, the less he will have to pay.

In total, in order to pay off all debts, Durov may need even a little more than $ 1.7 billion, which he attracted with investors under the Ton project in 2018.

How Telegram changed the conditions for investors

The deadline for the launch of Ton expired on April 30. TELEGRAM could not launch a platform and distribute GRAM investors due to a court ban in the USA. Instead:

• On April 29, Telegram invited investors to choose from: now pick up 72% of invested investments or wait another year and get its own - either cryptocurrency if the blockchain is launched, or with money in the amount of 110% of the initial investment.
• On May 4, it turned out that American investors will not have to choose. For them, Telegram left only one option - to pick up 72% of the invested. The rest of the investors on the same day learned that Telegram refuses to launch Ton in a year andoffers those who do not want to pick up 72% of their investments right now, re -register relations with investors as a loan of 52.7% per annum. In this case, investors could count on the return of all the same 110% in 2021.
• But then the company once againchanged the terms, offering investors to draw up the same loan agreement, but with an important amendment: Telegram reserves the right to repay the debt not a year later, but at any time. Then investors will receive their money back according to the formula: 72% of the invested plus commission for the actual time of using money starting from the date of entry into force of the new agreement (but not less than three months). The commission itself will be calculated based on the same 52.77% per annum.

How much money will be needed Telegram

First of all, Durov has to pay with investors. The SEC proceedings said that in 2018, Telegram attracted 39 investors from the United States, who together invested in the Ton project $ 424.5 million. If everyone agrees to early return, only 72% and no one will go to court, they will have to return more than $ 305 million .

Investors from other jurisdictions with which The Bell talked, claim that neither they themselves nor their acquaintances to pick up money on the same conditions are now ready. If Durov can pay off with them only in a year, he will need this $ 1.4 billion. But it can be assumed that he will try to do this as soon as possible to save on percentage.

This means that the Telegram investors may have to return even a little more than Durov initially attracted (all this - not counting possible judicial claims on their part). But the company has already spent some of the money from the $ 1.7 billion received in 2018 on Ton development and the development of Telegram. During the interrogation at the beginning of the year, Durov said that from January 2018 to January 2019, the expenses for both projects that the team did not share all this time, amounted to $ 218 million more than 40% of this money took equipment and servers. And in total, the Durov team was going to invest $ 520 million in the development of the blockchain.

Telegram himself in a letter to investors explained how to solve the problem: in extreme cases, in order to pay off investors, Durov will sell part of his package in Telegram.

There is no confirmed evaluation of Telegram. Investors with whom the Bell talked this week give estimates in a wide range of $ 4 to $ 10 billion and even in rare cases - $ 20 billion.

Who can buy Telegram

Many Ton investors hoped that in extreme cases, Durov’s telegram shares would pay with them, and were extremely disappointed to learn that this was not so. In one of the latest letters, investors only say that by selling a share in Telegram, investors will receive their money back. Who can act as a buyer and with which package of Durov is ready to part is unknown.

Durov probably could find a strategic investor and sell the company entirely: at different times, Telegram was interested in both Google and Chinese corporations, investors that The Bell talked to. One of them heard that Telegram has several offers from the Chinese conglomerates right now. The other believes that Durov could sell 20–25% of the wealthy Arab investors.

“But to attract a financial investor to a project that does not have a plan for monetization or sale is almost impossible,” one of the Ton investors are stipulated. “It makes sense to buy a minority share only in a profitable business or with the expectation of further growth in capitalization. Telegram is not the case yet, ”the managing partner of the Leta Capital, Alexander Chachava, agrees.

It can also be about some friendly money that would help to pay as soon as possible with Ton investors, one of the interlocutors of The Bell allows. For example, Durov had a good relationship with Roman Abramovich, who himself invested in Ton. But sooner or later friendly money will also have to be returned.

Two friends of Durov are sure that the sale of Telegram is not really included in his plans. “He will not sell anything, this is his fundamental position,” one of them claims. “I think that this is not even a question. I am sure by 99%that the topic of sale of the fraction of Durov is not considered at all, ”another confirms. They can be re -being reinstalled, in extreme cases, in extreme cases, to find a way to earn on their user base, but they will not sell a share anyway, he is sure.

Durov, who always desperately criticized WhatsApp, should remember well how the story of the sale of the Facebook messenger ended. The service, which earned only $ 20 million in 2013, was purchased by Mark Zuckerberg in 2014 for $ 19 billion. But after the sale of the business, the founders did not last long: in 2017-2018, they left the company due to the conflict with the new owner.

The reason was precisely the fundamental disagreement of the creators of WhatsApp Brian Eckon and Yana Kum with the approach of Tsuckerberg to the monetization of the service. Eckon and Kum were against advertising in WhatsApp and wanted the messenger to continue to earn a subscription, Zuckerberg insisted on an advertising model, which provided almost all the revenue of Facebook itself.

Having sold even a minority package, Durov risks being in the same situation. Investors will have to reckon with investors, and Telegram in any case will need a monetization model.

The problem is that Telegram competitors have come up with not many options to earn on messengers. If you discard paid services or an advertising model that Durov has never liked, there remains a Chinese model in which the messenger itself is not monetized, but a payment system and other functionality are built into it-from online purchases to order a taxi-on which Chinese corporations earn.

Check if there are options for monetizing the blockchain, to which the Telegram team attached a hand, it will be possible in the near future-this week a team of applied solutions around Ton, not directly related to Telegram, launched its version of the blockchain project. The new platform is called free ton, the cryptocurrency of the project is just Ton. This blockchain was created on the basis of open source code, on which Telegram worked with investors. And its main drawback is the lack of communication with Telegram and its 400 millionth audience.

INTERVIEW

IT giants against pandemia

It is difficult to imagine how we would survive this quarantine without the services of the largest technological companies. The Bell and the project "Russian norms!" We talked with their leaders about how they themselves are experiencing a crisis provoked by an epidemic. For Runet, he will be the first truly serious test, but the largest IT companies and entertainment services hope to get out of it with an even larger number of users who will seriously change their habits during the sitting of the house.

• Tigran Khudardyan, Yandex : “This epidemic will greatly change the attitude of people to diseases in general and even, possibly, to the simplest flu. A very large pressure will appear in society, with each flu epidemic, people will think: "Oh, everything is lost." And this pressure, most likely, will be reborn into quality, into different technologies, services that will allow the epidemic to predict. Here is an example: The New York Times made a study according to Google on requests on the topic of smell loss, with the help of which it was possible to predict how the epidemic would spread. If people lose their sense of smell, this is an instant signal that they get sick. And the fact that this can be understood by search queries is a very cool find. ” Read a great interview with Khudardyan here .
• Boris Dobrodeev, Mail.ru Group : “And cinemas, fitness clubs, stadiums? People will return there. But how will it be? You are sitting in the cinema hall-and suddenly someone coughs. It will be a real thriller. What will happen to the offices? I think that, of course, they will remain. But many will use them hybridly: for the Timbilding, for meeting on Mondays and Fridays. ” The abbreviated version of the interview is on our site .
• Alexander Akopov, AmediaTeka: “In the industry, of course, many guys were taken by surprise. Someone was able to subtract something underground, someone had to stop. Our Hollywood friends came up with the day before yesterday (they know how to come up with, of course) that they will have such a thing: Safe Production Environment. This is a set of rules according to which Brad Pitt and everyone else will, relatively speaking, wash their hands before taking or, conversely, distributing spiritual food. ” The full version of the interview is on the site.

And you can see all the heroes at once in the special issue of our video project “Russian Norms!”.

Read Later

• Due to the Steam coronavirus, I broke my own record many times on the number of active players on the site. But quarantine is not only about new players and an increase in revenue, but also about hackers and all kinds of cheaters. The Verge tells how scammers are looking for and finding all new loopholes for themselves, and top game companies come up with ways to fight them.
• In December, the head of one of the NASA laboratories Harold White left the department to work on the creation of a spacecraft, which can deliver a person outside the solar system. Wired tells the story of an engineer who is sure that humanity is able to create an engine that can provide speed above the speed of light and allow humanity to go on a journey between the stars.
• The film "Smerch" was released in 1996 and immediately received very contradictory reviews. On the one hand, the picture won the Golden Malina in the nomination “The worst film with gatherings over $ 100 million”, on the other hand, was nominated for Oscar for the best special effects. And there was something to nominate for: the team managed to show a realistic tornado, completely made with the help of graphics for the first time in the history of the movie. Here is a story about how special effects were created, which no one had ever done before, and the famous scene with the flying cow.

EDUCATION

Online course Professor Berkeley Solomon Darwin

49% of The Bell believes that the current crisis can provide new opportunities for business and career growth. But only those who can squeeze out the maximum from their potential will cope, the professor of the Walter Haas business school at the University of California Berkeley Solomon Darwin is sure. We publish his article on how to change thinking in order to get out of the crisis stronger. From May 13 to 15, Professor Darwin will read for readers The Bell and the audience of “Russian norms!” The online course "Expand the crisis and become stronger." You can find out about the program and register here .