"Putin simply showed numbers"

"Medusa" found out who and how lobbying the removal of coronavirus restrictions in Russia

President Vladimir Putin on May 11 announced the end of the “non -working days” regime and the gradual removal of quarantine restrictions in Russia. This happened on the day when the number of sick in the country reached a peak value. The early quarantine exit the government and a large business. Their opinion outlined the opinion of supporters of tough restrictive measures - for example, Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin, the sources of Medusa assure.

Who convinced the president to remove quarantine and why

On May 11, 2020, President Vladimir Putin made another appeal to the Russians. On this day, the term of the next “non -working days” that he announced on March 25 and extended twice, April 2 and 28. At the same moment, the official statistics of the growth of the number of infected coronavirus infection in Russia showed a record growth: the Covid-19 became ill of more than 11 thousand people.

And at the end of April, Levada-Center published the results of a survey on the support of anti-virus measures conducted by order of “open media”. The actions that the President and the Government to combat the epidemic take were considered sufficient 46% of respondents, 30% called insufficient, and only 18% considered excess restrictions. The head of the “Levada Center” Lev Gudkov predicted bursts of social discontent and new protests: “They [Russians] hoped for much more financial assistance from the state, for the reimbursement of their falling out due to the“ coronaccrisis ”of income. But the country's leadership decided to repay dissatisfaction with the least costly expenditure for the budget - the relief of some quarantine measures and selective social payments, the sources of Medusa say.

Some experts and opposition politicians believe that Putin hurried to remove restrictions in order to quickly vote on amendments to the Constitution . At the same time, the interlocutors of Medusa say, the leaders of the Cabinet of Ministers, the heads of state corporations and businessmen from Putin’s near environment, and the main motives for the removal of restrictions, became economic rather than political reasons lobbying.

One of the main ideologists of Russia's exit from the self-isolation was the acting prime minister (during the illness of Mikhail Mishustin) Andrei Belousov, to whom the president listens to: for a long time Belousov was his assistant. He insisted on lifting restrictions and advised representatives of large business, having direct contact with the president, to do the same. The head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina, who explained that with long restrictions, banking reserves would actually be exhausted.

“Putin was simply shown by the numbers: two more weeks of quarantine with serious support for business and the population will cost two or three trillions of budget money. General restrictions in two months would cost the entire budget of the country. They counted - wept, ”Medusa tells a source close to the Russian government.

Another source of Medusa in the government confirms that the initiative in the issue of lifting restrictions belongs to the economic bloc of the Cabinet. At the same time, he adds that the stages of the gradual removal of quarantine began to be discussed even before Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin went to sick leave because of the coronavirus. “Without discussing with him, nothing was proposed, it was not developed. In the government, no issue is resolved without it, ”the official emphasizes.

Another government source recalls that back in early April, the Cabinet of Ministers began to think about lifting restrictions . Prime Minister Mishustin held a meeting on April 8, which discussed the "gradual defront of the economy." After that, on the same day, the video review of Vladimir Putin with the governors passed. “You cannot stop the economy. <...> We must understand what kind of damage, what destructive consequences this can lead. Now it is necessary to create all the conditions so that companies, organizers, entrepreneurs return to the normal schedule of work, ”the president said then. In most regions, they really began to soften restrictions and open enterprises. Only Moscow was an exception: a few days after the presidential speech there, new restrictions were introduced there - city construction sites stopped working .

Why Moscow continues to act autonomously

For some time, Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin influenced the president regarding the establishment of tough restrictive measures, the sources of Medusa say - however, this influence began to fall every day. He was opposed by government officials who have direct contact with the president, as well as businessmen from the near circle.

The interlocutor, familiar with the style of work of the mayor of Moscow, from the time when Sobyanin was the Tyumen governor, explains that there have always been the managerial practices of the Asian states for the official: China, Singapore and South Korea, harsh and technocratic. “Systems of video surveillance, digital passes are all from there,” says a source of Medusa, adding a mandatory quarantine to this list, on which the mayor of the capital insisted.

“He was ready to move on, close Moscow [for visitors and the departure of Muscovites from the city], close the metro. Sobyanin understood that already in mid -March, Moscow turned into a coronavirus hearth, it was just common sense. But he didn’t go to the end, he was stopped, ”says a political strategist close to the metropolitan administration.

However, Moscow retains a policy quite autonomous from the influence of the federal government and has the sanction of the head of state, says the source of Medusa close to the government. For example, the metropolitan administration does not follow the recommendations of Rospotrebnadzor for the stages of lifting restrictions, and Sobyanin, referring to the recommendations of the agency, openly distort them.

On May 14, on the air of Russia-24, answering the spectator's question about the opening of the hairdressers, he called the situation “difficult”. “Household services are the most problematic from the point of view of the spread of the virus, Rospotrebnadzor published special requirements for the transition to the stages of resolving such institutions. The situation in the city should comply with a number of requirements of Rospotrebnadzor, Moscow has not yet fully meets these requirements, ”said the mayor of Moscow.

At the same time, according to the recommendations of Rospotrebnadzor, the enterprises of the sector of household services should open at the first stage of lifting restrictions, along with small non -food stores. In addition, walks and sports are allowed at this stage. One of the main conditions for the transition to this stage is the coefficient of infection with the virus equal to one or lower. In the capital, he, according to official data of May 14, is already lower than a unit. Other requirements - the presence of free beds in hospitals and the number of tests for 100 thousand populations - Moscow also corresponds. However, the capital's authorities instead of small businesses chose to open construction sites and industrial production.

What the presidential administration tried to do in these circumstances

Officials of the Presidential Administration also played a role in the removal of restrictions: its head Anton Weino and his first deputy, curator of domestic policy Sergey Kiriyenko. They also skeptical about the restrictions and their influence on the economy and the mood of citizens. “On behalf of Kiriyenko, a memorandum was drawn up, where restrictive measures were compared, their influence on the factors and consequences of the epidemic. It turned out that you can cope without hard quarantine, ”says a source close to the presidential administration.

This was not done in order to bring the voting period for amendments to the Constitution , but in the framework of the AP to combat the pandemia of the coronavirus. If in mid -March, the president really hoped to conduct a plebiscite and hesitated with the introduction of restrictions, now economic problems came to the fore - a source in the government and an interlocutor close to the political bloc of AP told about this.

The administration discussed two options for the fate of voting on amendments to the Constitution: due to economic problems, the ratings of the authorities and Putin are falling and in the results of the plebiscite now it is impossible to be confident. The first option implied a complete cancellation of voting under the pretext of the preserved epidemic threat, the second - the introduction of remotevoting by mail and the Internet , which would allow its administrators to ensure the results acceptable to Putin. “Putin himself is categorically against canceling [voting on amendments], he is not used to retreating,” says the interlocutor close to the AP.

According to him, "the remote voting in the elections had to be made to the State Duma in a rather hasty manner precisely because other people were lobbying, the result of their exhortations and the deadlines for leaving the restrictions were incomprehensible." “Removing quarantine automatically means an early vote, which was paused. The rush led to the fact that the Russian Post, for example, did not even warn that they would somehow vote through them, ”adds another source close to the AP.

Voting by mail and electronic voting is also not the most acceptable format for Putin: the president would like to have a high turnout and crowds to the people who would demonstrate the support of the authorities. But now, according to the assurances of the Medusa source close to the government, the president is passionate about the “salvation of the economy”, so the plebiscite has lost priority for him.

Andrey Pertsev