"Spend the last." Why the economy cannot withstand the second outbreak of pandemia

At the end of July, Rosstat published statistics for the first half of 2020 - compared with January - June 2019, industrial production decreased by 3.5%, and the industrial production index by 9.4% (compared to June 2019). Coronavirus and quarantine measures seriously undermined the welfare of people in different regions of the country, the economist, director of the regional program of the independent Institute of Social Policy Natalya Zubarevich told the correspondent of the Sever. Reali.

The first cases of a new coronavirus infection in Russia appeared at the end of January. Russia was gradually entering a full -fledged epidemic and the fight against it. At the end of March, President Vladimir Putin announced a week of "non -working days" when enterprises and services were offered to stop the work - at the expense of business owners. So gradually began, and still has not ended, the "self -isolation regime", now regulated by the heads of regions.

"Self -isolation" meant that everyone who could switched to remote work. Who could not have stopped working at all. As a result, in St. Petersburg, for example, by the beginning of August 2020, the number of registered unemployed exceeded 100 thousand people, while at the beginning of the year there were 14 thousand.

“This suggests that people went to register,” explains the economist Natalya Zubarevich , “because the level of unemployment benefits was raised to the subsistence minimum.” And, accordingly, in Moscow, Mosoblasia, St. Petersburg, the growth rate of registered unemployment was the highest. They also facilitated the entrance: it was possible to register online, less hand over pieces of paper. Therefore, indeed, in St. Petersburg, the unemployment rate rose 4.5 times! Moscow also has 4.5. And on average in the country - an increase in unemployment is three times with a penny.

-At the same time, St. Petersburg-in a dozen regions with a minimum level of unemployment. The rest of the regions of the NWFF is even worse?

All kinds of entertainment, sport, tourism actually closed

-No, differently. The highest level of registered unemployment in the north-west is Karelia, 4.5%, and very decent growth in Vologda-up to 4.4%, because different businesses fell there and, apparently, there was also optimization on Severstal. In Komi - 3.4%, Arkhangelskaya - 3.4%, 3.9%in the Kaliningrad region.

- Is this mass dismissal at individual enterprises or have many small businesses sprinkled?

- There were no mass dismissals at industrial enterprises. Basically, people were sent to unpaid leave, in simple - by agreement of the parties. Yes, the market for market services sector really suffered the most in this crisis, because non -food retail did not work at all. All kinds of entertainment, sports, tourism actually closed, hairdressers did not work, many household services were closed. And some of the owners fired people, because they could not pay them a salary - there was no income. But Karelia is not about the services sector. In Karelia, problems and industrial sectors too. If we take the Vologda region, these are also industrial sectors. St. Petersburg is a mixture: first of all, the sector of market services and, in the second, barely living industrial enterprises that have no sales. And there was also a compression of employment.

- In the province, one of the most important employers remains the budget, what is with it?

- And nothing happened to him. This crisis is not about the budget. In budgetary institutions of the Russian Federation, 14.5 million people work. In industry, about 14 million more-there are more services in the sector!

And if you have a child from 7 to 16, then suck your paw

- How much do payments for children who received families help?

-They allowed to support families with children a little. These are one -time measures, they are unstable, not monthly. The former announced in May, and people received in June, the second payment under the vote. All! Nobody promised you anything else. In families with children under three years of age, regular payments are a little support. Now they were prolonged on families with children up to seven years old. And if you have a child from 7 to 16, then suck a paw. The income of the population for the second quarter decreased by 8%.

"Harden tax packed up"

- And if we talk about the budgets of the regions?

- There is a very trouble. This crisis hit the two sectors of the economy. The first and obvious is the sector of market services, because it is a consequence of quarantine work prohibitions. Now quarantines are slowly removed, and the sector comes to life very slowly, because people have reduced income, and market services are what we buy for money. The second is industry. The industrial decline was much more than what we expected. And the reason is no longer in quarantine. The reason is that external solvent demand was compressed for export industries: the world sits in a coronaviral crisis - consumes less, and plus the OPEC deal. The second, the internal demand for products compressed: auto industry, jewelry industry, all this was very sprinkled. If we take the north-west, then industrial production in Avtopomovsky in the Kaliningrad region was most sprinkled-minus 11%, in St. Petersburg by 6%, but this is mainly engineering, and this is associated with quarantine, in the Nenets district of oil-minus 7%. The profitability of large businesses sprinkled, first of all, with terrible force. All this has catastrophically affect the budgets of the constituent entities of the Federation. In January-May, that is, five months, Karelia’s budget revenues decreased by 18%, in Komi-by 22%, the Nenets district-by 17%, in the Arkhangelsk region-by 16%and Vologda-minus 21%. These are the most affected budgets of subjects. And all these are the regions that are somehow related to export-oil, forest, metals. A very difficult situation.

- And how did the federal center help?

- Helped! Really helped. All transfers, that is, gratuitous assistance to the subjects of the Federation, increased more than one and a half times. Komi helped most-2.7 times from January to May, transfers grew up compared to January-May 2019. For some reason, they helped, for me, surprisingly, the Leningrad region, which did not particularly fall. But we have a transfer of transfers - this is a separate dispute. Very good, more than two times, helped the Novgorod region, St. Petersburg. And now, if we look at the landscape after the battle, then all the regions of the north-west have become even more subsidized than they were before Covid. In the whole country, in 2019, we had an average of 19%, now in January-May, it was already 21%, because if it weren’t for federal assistance, at least four subjects-Karelia, Komi, the Nenets district and Vologda-there would be nothing to pay salaries to state employees. Therefore, the level of subsidation of Karelia in January-May of this year jumped up to 47%, that is, almost half of the money in it is federal assistance. In Komi, which was not recting highly dotable, already 17%. The Arkhangelsk region, but she was slightly helped - 29%, Vologda was also highly dotable - now 25%, and the poor Kaliningrad is sitting at its own 55%, and all this is very sad. In short, a blow to budgets is a third blow.

None of these strokes quickly won it

- And how many of them?

- There are four of them. The first blow is on employment, this is the market for market services plus incomplete employment of industry. The second is the income of the population. The third blow to industry, and the fourth blow - on the budgets of the constituent entities of the Federation. And none of these strokes will quickly play.

- Given that the pandemic continues, the subsidies, apparently, will have to be increased?

-In two coronacial months, only April-May, when the peak of income falls to the budget, help increased by almost 90 percent-just a holiday of unprecedented generosity! Whether the federal budget is ready to finance June, July and August - I do not know just as generously.

- And if suddenly not ready?

“Most likely, it’s not ready, because his hole will have two trillion.” And the initial loss of the budgets of subjects was initially expected that 1.3 trillion would be on the whole year, now the Accounts Chamber, requesting information from the regions, says that there would already be 2 trillion.

Nobody canceled KPI

- A number of regions did not sprinkle and even showed growth. And due to what?

- In Pskov, industry was not reduced - a weak growth of 3%. Trade in the Pskov region, as Rosstat says, has already reached the pre -crisis level in June. So he was pre -crisis, remember which one? With Gulkin's nose! Well, here she returned, thank God, this means that consumer demand has restored. And already in June, a trade fall in trade was eliminated. I will tell you carefully: when I did not live well and the regiment with which you fall, very low, then maybe the fall will not be so cruel. And it is probably possible to recoup on your miserable value.

- But at the same time, at the end of July, the Pskov region took 7.3 billion rubles on Sberbank on credit .

- Do you know why? Take budget expenditures. Here is a failure by income, it seems that you need to drill a new hole and spend less. Nothing of the kind! On average, the subjects of January-May expenses increased by 19%-with falling income! The reason is the first and absolutely understandable - it was necessary to sharply increase health costs: beds, capacities, devices and further on the list. This surf is that the coronavirus is, not coronavirus, no one canceled the implementation of the KPI on national projects. And therefore, the costs of the national economy - this is road construction, transport, support for the agricultural sector and further according to the list - increased by 20%! Guys, you fell from an oak?! You have a damage to hell! But nobody canceled KPI. On average, the country has January-May, the expenses for National economics plus 20%, and Karelia-47%, Vologda-53%, Novgorod-47%, that is, one and a half times, Kaliningrad-by 20%! Only smart St. Petersburg is only 4%. They scored these national projects, however, they saved on healthcare. The whole country has increased the costs of healthcare, if we see, by about 80%, and St. Petersburg-less than 40%. But they have a budget surplus. Saved.

- You say, healthcare costs have grown. Is this a low base effect? After all, before that, the network was reduced in a monstrous way.

- No, it's not so simple. There was almost no reduction in rubles. Networks, institutions, medium and junior medical staff (doctors were not particularly reduced) were reduced in order to raise salaries. Therefore, let's not confuse nurses with nurses and beds with rubles. There is a difference. And this crazy growth in health care by almost 90% in January-May is an additional deployment of beds, the purchase of medical equipment, that is, preparation for the "crown".

- Did we have healthcare optimization?

- Yes! No doubt. This is a universally recognized fact that medicine was not ready. And only through large infusions in emergency mode did they do something. If you look, who, of course, was the coolest of Moscow, the costs of health care have grown 2.4 times-with their possibilities, with their money, which were already rather big. Peter saved. The rest - this is how much the feds gave (and they distributed 80 billion rubles in the regions in April precisely on the "crown"), that’s how they spent.

- Is it strange that quarantine measures were introduced approximately the same throughout the country?

If you are in a shooting situation, will you draw a beautiful figure?

- Exactly. The greatest stupidity is a non -working week, the end of March is the beginning of April, when Covid was not really anywhere except Moscow and the Moscow Region.

- But everyone has not worked ...

- Yes. This is complete nonsense! Then they thought better of it a little, threw the responsibility for the rigidity of quarantine measures to the regions. It was right, on the one hand. On the other hand, all governors painted beautiful numbers, because everything should be fine with Covid. If you are in a shooting situation, will you draw a beautiful figure? What they did. Now more and more. The Sverdlovsk region does not remove quarantine measures, Yakutia does not remove, Irkutsk does not remove, because they just went to the plateau. Moscow would also last longer, if not for parades and "zeroing".

"Alcohol is all right"

-Are there any directions and sectors of the economy that have not suffered?

- More! Food, food trade, it, alcohol - everything is in order.

- Alcohol, probably, even grew up.

- By 30% in the first weeks of April. The country is like that. Food - by 10%. And it - of course, depends on which part of it you are sitting in. If you are doing hotel software, you understand that you have sagged. And if you are doing delivery, remotes, something else-wow, how good it is.

- Did such a jerk occur only in the capitals or in the province too?

- First of all, Moscow, Mosobalast, Peter, because it is the most advanced population in terms of computer use. And this population with money that can pay for all this. Already in millionaire cities it is much weaker, and then I will not even comment-these are tears.

- I think that people who live by renting real estate should still be very losing.

- Yes, you are right! Those who came to Moscow to work and rented housing, many of them lost their jobs, but they had to leave because they cannot live, like Tajiks, ten people in the same room. The rental sagged, of course. The rental rates have fallen. Therefore, the rentier also lost their income.

- This, probably, applies not only to private apartments, but also in retail space?

- The rental of retail space is very large. If you rent from government agencies and municipalities, you have the right to a six -month delay in payment of rental payments, and Moscow gave it even more beautifully, Peter - no. Moscow is much richer. If you rent from a private trader, from a shopping center, this is the subject of your agreements. And this shopping center, when built, was lending to it. He needs to give loans. And he has property tax. Therefore, everything is very difficult. The shopping centers are empty. The shops at the house are better, because many of them are on municipal rental, and they gave relief there. In general, in different ways, but small and medium-sized businesses now howl. True, non-food retail is somehow restored, but all that services is much more complicated there.

Gazprom, working on the remote, I cannot imagine for all the imagination

- Given that the people appreciated the convenience of working from home, ordering goods home and so on - maybe this sector will not be restored?

- The convenience of work from the house is a relative thing. With our meter of apartments and the availability of children, you are unlikely to organize an cabinet. Efficiency falls. Not all employers were happy. Therefore, of course, there is a return to offices. Perhaps there will be no such pile as before the "crown". The balance will change a little, but I can’t imagine, for example, Gazprom, which works on the remote, for all the imagination.

- But in tourism - today's domestic demand, when it is impossible to go abroad, but it is already possible in Russia, it compensates for the sectors of the losses of the first coronavirus months when everything was closed?

- Of course not. If you take paid services, then in April - a decline of 38%, in May - minus 39%, and in June - minus 35%. Very slow restoration. By the end of this year, the industry will definitely not get out of the crisis.

- Entrepreneurs say the demand for construction products is growing.

- Yes. Time appeared, repairs began. People dismantled their mezzanines, crossed something. Many on the remote, sitting in the country, began to repair what was needed. A temporary backlash appeared when you can post your home questions.

- That's just interesting - where did the money come from?

- If you take savings in bank accounts, 33% of all savings, that is, individual accounts in banks, is Moscow. Peter also had something in the tank. They build it there. It is unlikely that, I think, in the Pskov region, stormy summer cottage construction has unfolded. But there is some kind of tanning, many did not go on vacation, but simply took up everyday life, household chores. Dacha, the house is a place that requires money constantly. There would be time.

There are many crazy people. There are those who spend the last

- Will these savings be enough for a long time?

- I am very carefully followed by the planned ones - this is what goes through Sberbank - salaries, purchases, all checks from cards. The first thing that was said by the fraud that in July the growth of consumption ceased. In April, there was nothing to buy-everything was closed, in June there was a peak of delayed demand, and in July there was no growth. Therefore, money is not very good. Second. We understand perfectly that this year the population will lose at least 5% of its income in real terms. The deposits began to grow, people began to lay down more, realizing that the airbag was needed. Next. We have a minute! - For 18 trillion rubles, people gained loans. And now, while the pause is coronavirus, and then they must be served. There are many crazy people. There are those who spend the last one. But still, the people thought out.

- Now, just a mortgage is falling - maybe it's time to buy an apartment?

- Look what is happening. You were reduced by a mortgage rate. You, like undermined, ran to take this mortgage. Did you know that the entry of housing in the Russian Federation for the first half of 2020 was reduced by 11%, and before that, from 2015 to 2018, another 12%? In 2019, they won little, as a result, minus 8%became. This means that minus 8% in five years and plus still minus 11%. What does this mean for buyers? What will happen to the cost of this housing?

- grows up.

- So I warned you. Plan your mortgage intentions more thoroughly, realizing that the cost of a meter will grow simply due to the fact that the volume of construction has decently declined. And here I want to say that the Pskovites have the situation - minus 32% in the first half of the reduction of housing input volumes! But do not be discouraged - in Vologda minus 42%.

- But in general - is it grown in the castle?

- She stopped in the spring, when the banks very tightened the criteria for entering credit. And people from problem sectors (hotels, tourism and further on the list) simply did not give loans.

- But there is always "fast money", microcredits ...

- Therefore, thoroughness and caution. And my third advice is a part -time job. That is, very carefully with expenses and maximizing efforts on additional income. Well, we will survive. The people can spin.

- Probably, all these small businesses will now go to the "gray" zone?

- Yes, here you are absolutely right! Small trade, especially in the south, will hide again in the "gray" zone. Services for people who began to come into the world a little, they will also do it, because it is necessary to live somehow, and paying taxes with compressed revenue is much more difficult. Minus 35% of June! And the last advice. Please do not delay payments for housing and communal services. It has now fallen by 13%. The people heard that now they would not charge a penalty before the end of the year for the delay, and began not to pay. And from January 2021, what will you do? All penalties will already roll you. Therefore, please pay for housing and communal services: there will be no problems now, but from the New Year. Such everyday advice, as they say.

- Public enterprises probably already have problems?

- Yes, there are holes, there are 230 billion money. There will now be such showdowns! .. This is supplier organizations - energy, gas, water.

- And then we will talk about how to enter the winter ...

- Yes. This is true. This is our homeland, son!

- The crisis, as they say, is new opportunities. Is this crisis at least for some region have discovered a new opportunity in anything?

- This cannot be measured by regional scale. This is about business. All kinds of delivery businesses in the largest cities have grown very much. I think everything that is connected with this new communications system, when you not only work on the remote, but also have fun, received a very strong additional impetus. But again, where people have money. The periphery sat on potatoes. Partial modernization, of course, occurs, but this is such a narrow segment of everything that we do and consume ... opportunities, yes, there are. You saw that carcherying is now restored. It is better to drive by car than in public transport, and paying for parking is reluctant to pay. We must observe. But in any case, this is the modernization history of the largest cities. These are not great bows, this is not an old Rus, this is about another.

The economy of the second one will not stand

- And who will the second wave finish?

- First. Neither you nor I know whether she will be. Second. It will definitely not be accompanied by such a quarantine scale, this does not go to the fortuneteller, because the economy of the second can not stand it. The people have been injured, already afraid much less, tired. Therefore, even if a second wave goes, there will be such a clamp in either the people or in the economy. Or I don't understand anything about my country.