The euphoria around the vaccines continues, China is growing faster, pandemic against fertility

The American Moderna published preliminary results of the tests of its vaccine. She has one, but a decisive advantage

In the world markets, deja vu. This time, the American Moderna announced the intermediate results of the third phase of testing of its vaccine against the Covid-19, the effectiveness of which was 94.5%. The effect that the news produced in the market was not as impressive as a week ago, but tangible - oil added 5% and returned to $ 45 per barrel, and the American stock market updated the historical maximum. The main advantage of the drug for Moderna compared to Pfizer vaccine is much more sparing storage conditions that will simplify its distribution.

• The effectiveness of almost 95% is not bad even by the standards of traditional vaccines, and before the start of expanded clinical trials, regulators were ready to certify coronavirus vaccines with 50–70%. Side effects in Moderna vaccine are light and short -term, researchers write.
• The mentioned Moderna assessment of effectiveness is based on the intermediate results of the third phase of clinical tests for 30 thousand volunteers. In the group that received the vaccine, five people fell ill with coronavirus, 90 people in the control.
• The size of the SamPA and the results are comparable to the test results of the PFIZER and BIONTECH vaccine, which showed the efficiency of 90% (we talked about its restrictions here ). For the traditional Russian “satellite V” vaccine, an efficiency was given by 92%, but the sample was almost three times less, the tests themselves were far from the completion, and at least part of the participants have so far received only one dose of the vaccine instead of two.
• The new vaccine has two important advantages over the candidate Pfizer. Firstly, pre-confirmed effectiveness against severe cases of the disease: there were 11 such cases in the control group, not a single one in the test. Pfizer has yet to gain statistics in severe cases.
• The second and main advantage is the storage conditions of the drug. Pfizer vaccine remains stable only at a temperature below 70 degrees Celsius - this will greatly complicate its transportation, and for many developing countries it will make it completely impossible. The Moderna vaccine, as the company said , can be stored and transported at -20 ° (the temperature of the standard household freezer), and up to 1 month -at -2–8 ° (temperature of the standard refrigerator).
• If everything goes well, the new vaccine will almost not lag behind the competitor. Moderna expects to gain 151 cases of infection soon and submit the results for approval of the regulator in a couple of weeks. If it is obtained, serial production will unfold in December. It is expected that vaccination in the United States starts by the end of the year from health workers and risk groups. In February, mass vaccination should begin, during which Moderna should have an advantage over a competitor due to standard storage conditions.
• 100 million doses of Moderna vaccine reserved the United States, 80 million doses - the European Union, 50 million - Japan and the same amount of Canada. Developing countries will receive the Moderna vaccine in the second place. This leaves a market niche for the Russian vaccine - the construction of production for it in Kazakhstan was announced just today. There may be problems with the real serial production “satellite V”,wrote The Bell.
• Moderna announced the intermediate results of the third phase two hours before the opening of the American market - and thereby provided him with another growth day. The S&P 500 index increased almost 2%during the day, but by 21:30 Moscow time, growth was adjusted to 0.7%. Moderna herself rises by 9%, and the Pfizer competitor that has been ahead of her is cheaper by 4.17%. The traditional victim of good news about the vaccine was Zoom - its shares fall by 3.32%.
• Brent oil on the news added 5% and returned to the bar of $ 45 for a barrel last week. By 21:30 Moscow time she was adjusted, but not much - up to $ 43.84. The ruble strengthened to the dollar by 1.08 - up to 76.3 rubles ./ $.

What am I to me?

The news about the Moderna vaccine is especially good in that the conditions of its storage were better than expected - which means that the Russians will have more chances to get it. But, as we explained on the day of the announcement of Pfizer, there are many more questions to the effectiveness of both drugs, like Russian, from the Hamale Institute, and even more to how farm companies they will cope with their rapid mass production. It is not yet worth counting on the victory over Pandemia by the spring.

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MONEY

It was not so easy to increase taxes for oil workers

A large increase in taxes for oil workers, planned by the government, cannot be fully implemented, the VTIMES publication writes with reference to the study of Vygon Consulting analysts. In total, the government plans to collect an additional 1.15 trillion rubles from oil workers in the next 5 years, and 500 billion of them will be compensated by tax deductions. But these deductions are not enough, Vygon analysts write: new tax conditions will force companies to reduce production, and the production of supervision and tall oil in the Volga region, NAO and Komi may stop even. The government is already discussing possible reliefs with companies, writes VTIMES with reference to sources.

China grows faster

In February-March, no one would believe in this, but today's data is almost no doubt-the restoration of the Chinese economy is accelerating, and this year this year will become the only economy in the world that will grow. In October, industrial production in the country will grow by 6.9%, 0.2 points above the consensus prognosis of Bloomberg. In a plus, in annual terms, the Chinese GDP was also released according to the results of the third quarter - during this period it grew by 4.9%, and in 9 months - by 0.7% in relation to the same period in 2019. In the second main developing economy, India, everything is much worse - the fall of GDP at the end of the year can be 9%.

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PRACTICE

Than the pandemic threatens diapers manufacturers

It would seem that universal quarantine was supposed to lead to the birth boom. Somewhere it happens-the Philippines count 214 thousand future unplanned children in the spring. But in most countries the negative effect of the economic crisis takes its own. In the United States, according to Rickit Benckiser, in addition to Durex and Nurofen, it produces baby food), in 2021 the birth rate will decrease by 300-500 thousand children. In China, according to Barclays, by 8%, that is, by 1.17 million: this is twice as much fever than in 2019. For companies that make money for babies, this is bad news - especially since the birth rate in developed countries (including in Russia ) has decreased without pandemic, so that manufacturers of diapers and children's mixtures are forced to invent high -added goods to justify the price increase, writes The Wall Street Journal.

The main project of the banker who abandoned the inheritance

In 1879, the 13-year-old heir to the Barbburg banking dynasty (they stood at the origins of the current Warburg Pincus and half of the UBS), Abi Warburgh offered his younger brother Max: Abi refuses his father’s right to inherit his father’s business if Max would buy him any book that his older brother asked him. The brother agreed, and Abi Warburgh, contrary to the indignation of his father, instead of one of the richest bankers in the world, became a famous art historian and the owner of a library of 60 thousand volumes, which is now located in London at the Institute of Warburgh founded by him. At the end of his life, he considered the “Mnemosine Atlas” at the end of his life-a carefully selected collection of images, which was supposed to display the cultural heritage of mankind, accumulated by the 1920s. He did not manage to complete the work, but collected the first volume of the Atlas - 63 wooden panels with almost 1000 images. In November, the Institute of Warburg first posted all the panels in an online access.