The results of the year. Constants and the Constitution

"Mediassogy" reports that in 2020, Russian networks most often discussed coronavirus: 304 million messages. This is force majeure, so we leave the pandemic aside. In the second and third places (in fact in the first and second), the aborched constitution and the crisis in Belarus are 19 million statements. Navalny's poisoning closes the top three with 9 million. It is strange, given that the two last videos of it scored more than 20 million views. But what numbers give us, they are discussing.

In any case, the trend is understandable: in addition to Covid, the rating leads three purely political plots. Did the fellow citizens woke up? No, not yet.

“Levada Center” says that 30% consider the story with a poisoning of Navalny's staging. Plus, another 19% believe in poisoning, but they think that this is a provocation of Western special services - they do what they want with us. Around foreign agents. The total half of the population accepts the version transmitted by federal channels. 15%, on the contrary, are convinced that Navalny is completely right. It is clear that these are different strata by age, place of residence, income, education, etc. 20% of respondents managed to not hear anything about this story and first learned about it from the interviewers.

Such results seem incredible to many of the democratic public, but this is a typical aberration of perception. What is obvious to the inhabitants of one social stratum, in the framework of which their life and communication proceeds may seem alien and unimportant for another stratum. It's time to get used to it. Well, maybe they trained slightly ... but survived?! So either a performance or a provocation. They would like to kill - they would have killed, as the president explained.

Such a country.

The structuring of society is surprisingly stable. About 30–35% of voters, according to all sociological services, are ready to at least now vote for United Russia. This is a solid pro -government core, which with the help of propaganda easily expands to half of the population and even more. The electoral rating of V. Putin among those who declare the intention to participate in the elections rang out about 55%. Yes, there is a decrease, but not yet critical. On the other hand, again, 15% were against the annexation of Crimea even at the peak of mass enthusiasm of 2014. The hypothesis that the variety of information sources develops independent thinking skills is not confirmed. More precisely, it is not fully confirmed.

And in which?! Depends on the intensity and duration of the process. Today, alternative information is not interesting to the majority; The TV still wins the battle of the refrigerator. This is if you measure the characteristic time of the process for years.

If you measure for decades (and for such huge and inertial countries as Russia and China, only this metric is suitable) is a completely different matter. Contrary to the powerful and expensive pressure by the propagandist of the machine, the annual amount of budget subsidies by federal channels reaches 100 billion rubles - 15–20 million of European oriented voters are stubbornly preserved in the country. A kind of constant of the Putin era. Compared to Soviet times, there are a lot. Now it seems - unacceptably little. But as it is.

The public castration of the Constitution has concerned only 19 million users of networks. It is clear that the assessment is not entirely correct: one could write ten posts, the other - not one. But the overall scale of involvement is approximately clear.

If you start from the summer voting on amendments, cleared of the deposit of the “electoral sultanates” and the so -called “drive electorate” (it consists mainly of state employees and employees of state corporations, who persistently recommended that the authorities come and vote - preferably prematurely, under administrative control), then the picture comes out closely. 47–48 million participated “normal” or “free” voters in this electoral procedure (the official turnout was shown in 74 million, but of which about 10 vulgarly were painted in the “sultanates”, the remaining “drives” or attributed to trifles according to individual territorial commissions). Of these, approximately 16 million voted “against” and approximately 30 million “for”. That is, as a percentage, the real ratio of votes is close to 65/35 in favor of amendments. As you can see, the majority of Putin’s dozen would support even without falsifications. Another thing is that with honest voting it would be the majority among the minority - of those who came to sites of their own free will.

In short, the same constant: 16 out of 110 million voters found the strength to come and speak out against. By the way, their voices, contrary to the widespread fairy tale, no one “steal” especially: the electoral barcle is working differently and achieves its goals, not so much destroying the voices “against” (although this also happens, but in much smaller volumes - too troublesome and long), however arrogantly attributing the votes “for”. And, accordingly, incredibly fanning the turnout, which is immediately caught by simple statistical methods.

The empirical fact is that the broad masses of the things as a whole, apparently, are satisfied.

The question is, for a long time.

The medal also has the reverse side. Since the conformist majority depends on the picture distributed by the federal media, it is easy to guess that the change of information policy will easily change perception. This simple law of political management was well known to the leaders of the USSR (and today the leaders of the PRC, DPRK, Cuba, Iran and any other ideocratic regimes). Total ideological control is the first condition for maintaining power. Direct proof of this is a catastrophic (from the point of view of the current Putin nomenclature) plot with Gorbachev perestroika, the beginning of which was laid by the multiple by the sovereign ideologues “publicity”.

They do not intend to repeat such a mistake in any case, and the excess certificate is the feverish activity of the “rabid printer”, which at the end of the year printed a whole package of applications designed to increase censorship, take control of the Internet and restore the iron curtain.

So, a complete stabilism? I would not say. On the contrary, the fussy plug of holes indicates the loss of confidence and the horror of the Putin's “non -resource” in the face of approaching changes. The same can be said about Navalny, whom the power by any means is in a hurry to remove from political space. It was not possible to kill - well, at least not let it go.

Here you can not do without another row of empirically established constants.

The Stalinist experience, which is more frankly addressed by the Putin's vertical, showed that to hold the population under control, it is enough to repress 2–2.5% of the population. First of all, of course, the most competent, independent and independent. In the future, this will hush the political, cultural, economic stagnation and even (to measure decades) the collapse of the state, but the vertical does not know how to think about it. She knows how to think only about holding power - here and now.

More precisely, by itself the seizure of power and a turn back in the Middle Ages at first requires more significant sacrifices. But in our case, we are only talking about holding.

In June 1941, Stalin removed from occupied Lithuania, shot and placed about 18 thousand people in the Gulag, including 1,200 teachers. Total 0.6% of the population of the republic. From Latvia 15.5 thousand - 0.8%. From Estonia 10 thousand - 1%.

After the war, in view of the constant temporary difficulties and infection with the bourgeois and nationalist element (former industrialists, priests, professors, farmers and other accomplices of the bourgeoisie, hiding from pre -war purges), the percentage of the Baltic states had to double. In March 1949, during the Operation Operation in Estonia, 20 thousand people were taken - about 2%. In Latvia, 40 thousand - 2.2%, in Lithuania 32 thousand - 1.5%. True, in Lithuania, 40 thousand were taken a year earlier, in May 1948. But that was another operation, called “spring”.

After the death of the leader, the authorities reduced the volume of repressions, in a businesslike way, having decided that since the class enemies are over, it is better to save the workers, otherwise who to work for the regime? Having lost the material requirements, Soviet ideologists made a big mistake - and a new generation has grown through the generation in the country, which realized the deadlock of the system from personal experience. These people from scratch, from scratch, tried to restore the public structure closer to the norms of the twentieth century. With very ambiguous results.

In Russia itself, the majority of hard work on exterminating the most savvy and working men, intelligentsia, industrialists, aristocracy, etc. Bolshevik-Lenins did before 1923. The general shortage of the population, due to the revolution, emigration, hunger and civil war, amounted to 9-11 million people-about 5% of the population. During the years of a forced retreat to the norms of human existence and the temporary appearance of food in the country (NEP), the average population growth in Soviet Russia jumped up to 3.5 million people a year. But at the same time the positions of the private sector intensified; Therefore, the space of imperious arbitrariness narrowed. The vertical could not reconcile with such a threat and unfolded the second wave of repression and enslavement.

The collectivization and the hunger of the early 30s associated with it was carried away according to various estimates, from 8 to 12 million people are unlikely to be more, but hardly less. Another 4-6% of the population. But the party nomenclature felt incomparably more confident. It became easier to live, life has become more fun. Now it remained only to consolidate the successes with the help of a large terror - 1.3 million repressed (less than 1%; of which about half of the executed) - and one could no longer be afraid, according to the later expression of I.V. Stalin, “all kinds of surprises”. The people are politically castrated and bloodless, dutifully builds a bright future and sings peppy songs.

Returning to the present - again there is a clear excess of self -thinking and having independent sources of citizens' income. 15 million potential "foreign agents" is not a joke. Some of them will have to be squeezed abroad (good, the borders are open, not under Stalin!), Part of ruin, and the remaining people to repress that they had shut up and were afraid. Otherwise, comrades, we will not protect our unique civilization and spiritual scrapers under the decaying pressure of the Russophobic West. “All sorts of surprises” are again on the agenda. At least one and a half million (1%) will have to be slightly pinned. Considering that approximately 0.3 million in recent years have already traveled abroad and this process is growing, it will not be necessary to plant so much.

But you have to. Otherwise, the notorious “middle class” will pull the blanket over itself - and it will be like in Belarus or, worse, in Ukraine. "After all, you do not want this, right?" - asks the TV, looking into every house. So, you need to tolerate a little, tighten the belts in the name of a bright nomenclature future.

And the constitution? What is the constitution, what are you talking about ... Here is the question of the privileges of the ruling class, and you are with your constitution. If it’s completely unbearable, re -read the Soviet Constitution of 1936. A truly marvelous document.

Thanks to the censorship and decisive destruction of the opposition sprouts, such regimes are distinguished by high internal stability: Iran, Syria, Cuba, DPRK, Venezuela ... Do not rush to nod towards China - the USSR on the eve of the decay from the side also seemed great and powerful, demonstrating unprecedented indicators of systematic growth. And they collapse mainly for two reasons: external shock (for the USSR, its role was defeated in Afghanistan against the backdrop of a dramatic fall in oil prices) or the complete and final exhaustion of the internal resource base in the absence of modern resumption technologies. Well, by default, the third factor is still: the shameful reluctance of the supreme leadership to dirty hands in the blood, unworthy of real communist-verticalists.

With the third factor, the vertical in 2020 demonstrated the willingness to finally understand: this is confirmed by the heyday of censorship, repression and fraternal assistance to the Lukashenko regime. Not to mention Navalny. Actually, she has nothing to have left: the first two factors quietly dig the earth deeply outside the reach.

Will coronavirus and reduce oil prices become a fairly strong external shock for 2021?