Translated material
"Putin finally chose Venezuela's path." Konstantin Eggert about why the Kremlin is not afraid of the West's reaction to Navalny
"Putin finally chose Venezuela's path." Konstantin Eggert about why the Kremlin is not afraid of the West's reaction to Navalny
3 February 2021Konstantin Eggert
US Secretary of State Tony Blinken demanded “immediately and without any conditions” to free Alexei Navalny. The verdict was also condemned by Angel Merkel and Emmanuel Macron, who wrote a tweet in support of Navalny in Russian, and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson called the actions of the Russian authorities cowardice. Konstantin Eggert believes that they have long been accustomed to the threats of Western sanctions in the Kremlin, and the authorities will be arranged at the first opportunity so that Navalny is again outside the country.
The trial of Alexei Navalny is a demonstration by the Putin regime of his adamance and incineration in the face of public opinion both in Russia and abroad. We can say that Vladimir Putin finally embarked on the path of Nicholas Maduro and Alexander Lukashenko. Apparently, the Kremlin believes that the examples of Karakas and Minsk are suitable for the Russian regime: Maduro has been surviving in the conditions of mass discontent for the third year, and Lukashenko continues to withhold power from the day of elections on August 9. Apparently, Putin believes that his patience and cruelty will break the will of the supporters of Navalny and generally all dissatisfied with the state of affairs in Russia.
The Calculation of the Kremlin, apparently, is that the protests are fading. Most likely, the presidential administration decided that the case would go as in Belarus, where the demonstrations against Lukashenko are no longer very massive today. In addition, the Kremlin suggests that it will be possible to quickly dismantle the network of headquarters and activists of Navalny throughout the country and forever remove the most effective opposition organization in Russia. Given that some of these people have already been pushed into emigration, such a calculation has some reason.
The Kremlin, most likely, will look for opportunities to distract public opinion with some loud actions. I do not exclude a new round of existing conflict with Ukraine. I can easily imagine how the Kremlin goes to some steps on more or less formal accession or even the annexation of the regions of eastern Ukraine controlled by it. On the eve of the so -called “elections” in the so -called “State Duma”, Putin needs an unexpected course that distracting the attention of the public.
On the eve of the so -called “elections” in the so -called “State Duma”, Putin needs an unexpected course that distracts the attention of the public
If we talk about the elections, then in the AP we have already prepared a trap for supporters of Navalny and the idea of “smart voting”. The unification of “Fair Russia”, “Patriots of Russia” and the Party of Zakhara Prilepin is designed to create a new supernationalist political force, against which “United Russia” will look like a model of moderation. But the supporters of the “smart vote” can be accused of vote for the “Nazis”. The Kremlin expects to convince part of the Western public: Navalny and its supporters are not those for whom they give themselves out, but "cave nationalists."
I think that all this is not yet completely clear to the West, maybe, with the exception of the countries of Central and Europe and the Baltic. In the EU, to the west of the Oder, an understanding of how the Kremlin system operates, in my opinion, is not enough. In addition, the EU is absorbed in the fight against pandemia and still not very successful vaccination, and in the United States the political class today is mainly focused on the domestic political agenda and the consequences of the four years of the presidency of Donald Trump. The moment for Putin is not the worst.
The Kremlin is not very afraid of tough statements. Putin has long been used to them. In Moscow, they do not believe that the European Union is able to go to serious sanctions against Russia, for example, in the mass order to begin to freeze assets and accounts of the most prominent representatives of the political regime and members of their families, as well as the largest oligarchs. The whole sanctions history of the last 5-6 years convinces Putin: he does not have to wait for great danger from Europeans, because even such defiant sanctions are defiantly offended for the Kremlin, such as, for example, introduced after Navalny’s poisoning against Sergey Kiriyenko, in fact, have little practical significance - due to their high status of the holder of state secrets, Kiriyenko is unlikely to rest on azure coast or bought real estate in the real estate in the native shore. Sardinia in her name.
Moscow does not believe that the European Union is able to take serious sanctions steps against Russia
In addition, Moscow has high hopes for the head of the Christian Democratic Union and possible successor Angel Merkel as Chancellor of Germany Armin Lashet , known for his pro-Kremlin views, and to Italy, where the Prime Minister Matteo Salvini's friend can become the Prime Minister in the next year or two. Even in the Kremlin, of course, they are inspired by the results of public opinion polls in France, which demonstrate the growth of support for the persistent ally of Putin Marin Le Pen. According to these surveys, on the eve of the presidential elections, which are coming in 2022, its popularity is almost at the same level with Emmanuel Macron.
Finally, the head of the diplomacy of the European Union Josep Borrel, who previously periodically used relatively strict rhetoric against the Kremlin, still goes to Moscow to meet with Sergey Lavrov. It also convinces Putin: the European Union will talk, talk, and calm down. If Borrel meets Lavrov, but does not meet with naval representatives or Navalny himself, this will mean that the European Union is still ready to communicate with Moscow despite the lawlessness that we saw in the Moscow City Court and on the streets of Russian cities. The only real threat to Putin has always been and remains the US Congress, or rather the sanctions that he can take. However, the latest actions of the Biden administration - the consent to extend the START Treaty and the compromise proposed by Germany by Northern Stream -2 - rather do not inspire optimism to Putin’s critics, but the Kremlin - on the contrary, inspire.
I believe that the interaction of Moscow and the West on the topic of the fate of Navalny will not stop. From my point of view, the Kremlin is not very interested in being in Russian prison for a long time. Already today, Navalny is the most famous political prisoner of Europe and one of the most famous in the world. The longer it will remain behind bars, the greater the likelihood of awarding prestigious international awards and, possibly, even the Nobel Prize of the World. In this case, Putin will receive his Andrei Sakharov. The experience of a 10-year confrontation with Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who had a very serious international dimension, had to teach the Kremlin something. We saw the results of these lessons on the eve of Navalny’s return to Moscow. The Russian security forces persistently threatened Alexei with new criminal cases, and it looked precisely as an attempt to force Navalny to stay in exile.
The longer Navalny will be behind bars, the greater the chance that they will give him a Nobel
Putin knows that it is very difficult to remain politically significant inside Russia. However, Navalny deceived these hopes of the Kremlin. This, however, does not mean that Putin will leave an attempt to push him into emigration. No wonder the authorities actually already take “hostages”, for example, the brother of the opposition, Oleg. I really would not want something to happen to Navalny. However, I think his jailers will do everything to deteriorate his health. This, as they will hope in the Kremlin, will force the Chancellor of Germany or some respected American senator to call Moscow to let Alexei go for treatment. Putin will agree to the departure of Navalny, but provided that some part of his family de facto will remain a guarantor of his default on the territory of Russia. I believe that Navalny will try to morally break and, blackmailing with the health and fate of the family, shut up abroad.
Alexey is a courageous person and a real fighter, so for Putin this will be a difficult task. However, the calculation that in the Western capitals are especially sensitive to humanitarian themes, there are in the Kremlin. I am sure that in Moscow they do not hesitate to use this pressure lever on Navalny, his supporters and his family.