What will cheap oil cost Russia, change of management at Tinkoff, debut of Arrival, Suez and where to look for a new pandemic

The government will take tough measures to curb the price of sunflower oil, which President Putin has become very worried about. It could cost the country an entire industry of agriculture.

Thursday turned out to be truly black for the Russian oil and fat industry and its suppliers: Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov announced that there would be an export duty on sunflower oil.

• The duty will be effective from the new agricultural season, that is, from September 1, and until then the government is counting on agreements with producers. So far, prices for a liter of sunflower oil have been frozen at 95 rubles in wholesale, 110 rubles in retail. This freeze is proposed to be extended .
• The duty will be floating, and its mechanism will coincide with the damper that is currently in effect on the grain market. If the price of the export contract is below the cut-off price, no duty will be charged, but if the price is higher than the cut-off price, the exporter will have to pay 70% of the excess to the budget. “This price is being discussed now, but it contains a sufficient, good rate of return for agricultural producers,” Reshetnikov promised.
• The mechanism of subsidies will be activated (probably, Reshetnikov meant charging producers 10 rubles for each liter of oil sold at a fixed price). Taking into account the subsidies, the Ministry of Economic Development expects that "there will be no problems with supply to the domestic market, either in volume or in price."
• In order to leave oilseeds on the domestic market, a prohibitive duty on sunflower seeds will be introduced from July 1. Until June 30, the rate is 30% (but not less than 165 euros per ton), increased in January from 6.5%.
• Later on Thursday, sources from state agencies revealed the likely parameters of the new duties: a cut-off price of $1,000 per ton of oil and 50%, but no less than 320 euros per ton of sunflower seeds. This is very bad news for exporters: the cut-off price corresponds to December 2020 (it was then that President Putin took care of the oil), now oil for export in the Black Sea region costs about $1,500 per ton.
• The relatively good news is that the duties are supposed to be valid only for a year, more precisely, the agricultural season - from September 1, 2021 to August 31, 2022.
• The introduction of export duties means that product prices are artificially lowered relative to the level in the foreign market, Andrei Sizov, director of the Sovecon analytical center, told The Bell. “At the same time, this very external market is important for Russian oilseed producers - more than 50% of oil produced in recent years has been exported. For the oil producers themselves, this will not be a problem, all the lost revenue will be transferred to agricultural producers, the expert is sure. - In the coming years, we will see a rapid decline in the level of domestic crop production, I would generally say that the whole industry is falling apart due to these actions. The outlook is bleak."
• Sizov points out that if, with the introduction of floating duties on grain, agricultural producers had the option of switching to oilseeds, now they have no such hope. In the future, prices will be lower than they would be without restrictions, Sizov does not exclude, “but the price for this is a huge blow to Russian crop production.”

What do I get from this?

We observe almost in real time how state regulation of prices distorts the market, and not just any one, but only oil with a volume of 6 million tons per year. Is a developed and relatively prosperous industry worth keeping socially significant prices in the year of elections to the State Duma? The government seems to think it's worth it, while President Putin sees price caps as a fair take on superprofits from rising world food prices.

MONEY

Hughes leaves the bank for the band

Today, TCS Group Holding announced that the long-term chairman of the board of Tinkoff Bank, a close associate of the founder Oleg Tinkov, Oliver Hughes is leaving this post. The board will be headed by Stanislav Bliznyuk, chairman of the bank's board of directors. Last year, he replaced Tinkov himself, who was forced to be treated for a serious illness. Hughes becomes chief executive on parent TCS Group's expanded board of directors for strategic initiatives, while retaining his duties as its CEO. In essence, this is an increase, a source in the banking market told The Bell. After the founder's illness, Hughes became more strategist and outgrew the bank, a reshuffle that was agreed upon last fall. Hughes was the hero of the Russian Norms! You can watch an interview with him here .

Arrival hesitated at the start

British electric vehicle manufacturer Arrival, founded by Russian entrepreneur Denis Sverdlov, did not open as smoothly on the Nasdaq today as one might expect. On the first day, swings to the opening price of $22 per share reached +13% at the peak and -17% at the minimum. By 21:00 Moscow time, the quotes were almost 4% lower than the open. Nevertheless, the $13.6 billion offering was the largest ever for a British company, writes the FT, although this historic moment will have to be thanked for "speculative passions that have flared up on the other side of the ocean." The Bell closely followed the fate of Arrival and detailed everything that is known about the company.

Suez at the point of no return

On Thursday, it became clear that it would not be possible to quickly unblock the Suez Canal for shipping, and it was officially closed . The giant fully loaded container ship Ever Given, as it turned out, firmly imprinted on the shore, and it will take days, or even weeks, to rescue it, and with unloading. For ship operators, the moment of truth has come: they have a couple of days, and in any case less than a week, to decide whether to ship cargo around Africa. This route is longer and more expensive ($300,000 for a supertanker), but most importantly, 10-12 days longer. This will mean a gap in supply, the full price of which cannot yet be calculated. The roughest estimate "from above" based on the cost of cargo passing through the canal, gives almost $10 billion per day.

NAVALNY

Bullying and insomnia torture

On the second attempt, Navalny's lawyers managed to meet with the oppositionist in the colony, and they found him in an "extremely unfavorable" state. They considered the attitude towards him in IK-2 to be a deliberate strategy to undermine his health. It turned out that Navalny forbade publishing data on his condition, but his associates decided to violate this ban: since the end of February, since the beginning of his stay in the pre-trial detention center, he has been getting worse, he has severe back pain and his right leg is failing, there is no treatment. on Navalny's website Two of his statements to the leadership of the Federal Penitentiary Service were published . In one, he lists the symptoms, regards the lack of treatment as a mockery, and demands that he be admitted to a specialist doctor and handed over effective medicines. In the second, he complains about the torture of insomnia, indicating that he is awakened every hour at night. Navalny's wife, Yulia, publicly addressed President Putin, demanding "the immediate release of my husband, Alexei Navalny, whom he illegally stuffed into prison." She regarded what was happening as a personal revenge and reprisal. After the news came that Navalny received the first reprimand and will not be able to apply for parole.

PRACTICE

A new chance for a tricycle

The three-wheeler is a historical underdog. It has been tried and abandoned many times since the 1700s. But transportation is undergoing the most radical changes, and perhaps the boom of three-wheeled electric cars is just around the corner, writes Quartz. A three-wheeled mini-car can take an intermediate place between a full-fledged Tesla and fancy scooters. The new Solo electric car from Electra Meccanica fits into this niche - it costs just $18,500 and offers a range of up to 160 kilometers on a single charge. The company believes that such a car is suitable for people to travel within the city. By the way, for those who continue to work from home with their families, Solo will also help to retire - there is only one place in the car.

Hunt for the next pangolin

among scientists There is still no agreement on which animal became the primary source of COVID-19, but researchers are already moving forward - trying to determine which animal can transmit the next dangerous disease to humans. For example, scientists have already identified animals that have ACE2 receptors in their bodies - it is their viruses that are used to subsequently infect human cells. Among the creatures already penciled in are the horseshoe bat, the common hedgehog (whose danger people underestimate), domestic cats and pigs, the African green monkey, the red fox and the one-humped camel, tells The Wall Street Journal .