Optimism for GDP, 4G for villages, another loss for Jack Ma and why education startups are not liked in China

The new forecast for the Russian economy assumes that the effects of the pandemic have been overcome. He threatens to tighten the budget division

The Russian economy has already reached pre-pandemic indicators, and by the end of 2021, it will more than compensate for the fall in 2020, despite new waves of morbidity, the Ministry of Economic Development expects. This follows from the tentative version of the new macro forecast until 2024 sent to the regions. got acquainted with it Kommersant and RBC .

• The estimate of GDP growth in 2021 compared to the April forecast has been increased from 2.9% to 3.8%. The forecast for 2022 and the next two years remains the same - 3.2%, 3% and 3%, respectively. Thus, GDP growth should not be below 3% for four consecutive years, while in 2014-2020 it averaged less than 0.5%.
• The main changes are due to the growth of pledged oil prices. Prices will still peak this year, the ministry expects, but will be $6 higher, bringing the average annual price to almost $66 per barrel. In 2022, oil prices will fall slightly - to $64.8, but by 2024 - to $57.4.
• Accordingly, the ruble will noticeably — almost to 70 rubles per dollar in 2022. Inflation at the end of 2021 will be 5% (4.3% in the April forecast). The Ministry of Economic Development states that inflation is growing in the world, so it includes its imports in the forecast, Kommersant notes.
• Investment growth in 2022 is expected to be above 5% year-on-year, real wages — by 2.4-2.5% per year, real disposable income — at the same level. In practice, this means a relatively slow recovery of business income.
• The main message of the forecast is that in 2022 the economic consequences of the pandemic can be considered exhausted, the economy will return to its pre-crisis state, but with better prospects, Kommersant writes. Ideologically, it is in line with the government's attempts not to turn the fiscal policy into an unreasonably tight one and thereby stifle GDP growth and investment.
• The main question is how realistic the ministry’s assumption is that neither restrictive measures, nor stalled vaccination, nor a new wave of the pandemic will affect the economic recovery. In Moscow, which provides a fifth of the total GRP of Russia, the restrictions have already had the most detrimental effect on the restaurant business, reminds RBC.
• According to Kommersant, some of the forecast parameters look disputable. The publication points to overly optimistic forecasts for the labor market - an increase in the number of employed by almost 2 million (up to 72.4 million by 2024) with a decrease in unemployment - and the diversity of projections by industry.

What do I get from this?

When the “exact” forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development appears in September, it may even be better than the intermediate one. But on the whole, the Russian government has no desire either to abolish the fiscal rule or to trade in broad economic stimulus (and inflation) for growth. Therefore, we should expect an aggravation of the budget bargaining for the money that appears in the federal government, "while financial stability, as a thing that is already available, can be valued less," Kommersant predicts.

MONEY

Electrification

by 2025 The Stellantis Group (Fiat Chrysler plus PSA) has announced that it will invest 30 billion euros to radically electrify its model range. Electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids will account for 70% of cars sold in Europe and 40% in the US. The program, which includes four new platforms and five battery factories, has already been cited as one of the most (if not the most) ambitious in the industry. Even the legendary large RAM pickup will go electric, and even Jeep will have electric versions. The company expects EVs in the US to equal the cost of ownership of ICE cars by 2026, without tax incentives. A massive transition to solid-state batteries with increased energy density is planned for the same year.

Food symbolically fell in price

World food prices rose on a monthly basis for a year in a row, but this trend finally broke in June, the FAO said . The total index fell by 2.5%, mainly due to cheaper grains and vegetable oil, while meat continued to rise in price. In a year, food prices have risen by a third, and now live on the verge of starvation - 40% more than a year ago. 270 million people

4G for settlements

The State Commission on Radio Frequencies (SCRF) will extend for 10 years operators permission to use the "old" 700 and 800 MHz cellular communication bands, as well as the 4G (LTE) 2.5-2.7 GHz band, Vedomosti . learned Operators will have to pay for this by the obligatory installation of LTE stations in settlements from 500 to 1000 people, and made on domestic equipment. Eliminating the regulatory gap in eliminating the digital divide (Rostelecom is already connecting settlements larger than 1,000 people at state expense) will cost operators 15–35 billion rubles, depending on the availability of infrastructure.

The head of Tesla partner became richer than Jack Ma

There is more than symbolic reshuffling in the rankings of Chinese billionaires: Zheng Yucun, the founder and head of the world's largest electric vehicle battery manufacturer CATL, has become richer than Alibaba founder Jack Ma, writes Bloomberg. With a fortune of $ 49.5 billion, he entered the top 5 richest people in Asia for the first time. CATL has gone from founding to a mega-manufacturer in less than 10 years, and since going public in 2018, Tesla’s main supplier’s quotes have grown 20 times. Representatives of the "new energy" who will be able to most successfully take advantage of the global "carbon-free" trends are increasingly confidently breaking into the lists of multi-billionaires, the agency notes.

PRACTICE

Why Chinese authorities are fighting EdTech startups

The attack by the Chinese authorities on Jack Ma , and now on the Didi taxi service, is just the tip of the iceberg: Beijing officials have as many problems with digital services as Roskomnadzor could ever dream of. Quartz has a long and very interesting article about how Chinese regulators have begun to restrict the work of local EdTech startups. The reason was an anecdotal scandal: in January, four online lesson services at once released an advertisement with the same actress, who in one video portrayed an English teacher with 40 years of experience, in another, an elementary school math teacher, and so on. But there is a serious problem behind this: centuries-old exam traditions and fresh memories of a hard life with a low-paid job force Chinese parents to overload their children with extra classes, unequal access to education increases the already high social stratification, and when leaving universities, graduates who killed their childhood to study hard to find a job.

Night Watch by Tencent

But requests from parents work better than regulatory bans: Chinese companies are developing one solution after another to help control children's activities. A month ago, we wrote about smart lamps from ByteDance, which use surveillance cameras to monitor homework. Now Bloomberg is talking about Tencent's new technology, which owns the most popular online games. The Night Patrol system, which Tencent has already built into 60 of its games, will recognize the faces of users and disable children (technically, users under 18) from playing games that trick parental control systems in simple ways to play at night.