Translated material
Reaction instead of the revolution: the anniversary of the "swamp", which should not be celebrated
10 years ago, protests began, the only practical result of which was a powerful political reaction, intensifying every year. Did it begin due to protests or was it inevitable, and the protests against the results of the Duma elections began for the authorities only the reason to finally drop the mask? And most importantly - are events of a ten -year ago so important for the present and future of Russia, as it still seems to many of their participants?
Alternative story
What would happen if no mass protests in 2011-2012 did not happen? In December 2011, the elections of the State Duma calmly passed. The new Duma is full of unicorn, and the Communists, Zhirinov and Socialist -Revolutionaries in it are much less than in our reality. Several hundred notebook activists in Moscow and throughout the country were on duty at the protest, and then the New Year holidays began, and everyone forgot about the elections and the Duma.
In the spring of 2012, Putin would have held another administrative campaign according to his re-election and there were no “putings” and setting “hard workers” on “creacs”-because terrible fairy tales about the “creative class” rebel against stability would not make sense. Since there were no mass protests, there would be no repressive laws or they would be adopted at a much slowest pace. The Duma in general could be much more moderate: in 2011, United Russia received fewer mandates than planned, but much more Socialist -Revolutionaries came to the parliament, which no one had much expected there and who then all the convocations from the skin went out, proving that they were large Catholics, than the Roman dad, initiated and certainly supported the most wild laws and prohibitions.
There would be no “swamp business” and many other things smaller, their defendants would live a calm life, without searches, arrests, ships, prisons and emigration. The leaders of the opposition would continue to collect microscopic rallies in Moscow, quarrel at conferences and congresses. There would be no election of the mayor of Moscow with the participation of Navalny either - because they returned the elections of the heads of regions as a result of protests and as a measure to democratization. The Putin regime would quietly rot and rot, and at some point he would have finally rotated and fell under his own weight, the pendulum of history would sway in the opposite direction, the system liberals would have come to power and everything would be fine with everyone.
The conclusion from this logic is obvious: when I went to protest against the dishonest elections and Putin’s returns for the third term, the opponents of the current government punished themselves by provoking the reaction. Therefore, you do not have to be radicals and protest on the streets, this is only worse for everyone.
However, upon closer examination, such a logic looks rather controversial.
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