When can Omicron cover Petersburg? Interview

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The epitomer is issued based on the results of a diagnosis based on a positive PCR test on SARS-COV-2 or CT with a characteristic lung damage. The numbers are assigned automatically upon entry of records of new identified cases of Covid into the database of the city epidemiological department. They can be recognized either in the clinic or in an extracted epicrisis when discharge from the hospital.

In St. Petersburg, there are already cases of infection with “Omicron”, but how many of them are not known. Because of this option, the Russian authorities expect a huge increase in incidence in January: according to Medusa , the Moscow City Hall predicts from 30 to 90 thousand cases of Kovid's infection per day. Even Vladimir Putin speaks of future outbreaks.

“Paper” interviewed the researcher of coronavirus statistics Alexei Kupriyanov. We talked about the current situation in St. Petersburg and that you can already understand about the near future (spoiler: nothing good).

Alexey Kupriyanov

Candidate of Biological Sciences, independent analyst, co-founder of the Watching Covid-2019.ru community

-Can we talk about a stable trend on the incidence of Covid-19 in St. Petersburg-or is it too early? If the growth has already begun, then, according to your data, when did this happen?

- Growth in St. Petersburg became noticeable about ten days ago (a minimum of identified cases, according to reports, was passed on January 5). The problem is that we are only a week, as we left the holidays, and growth processes are superimposed on the implementation of the delayed demand for testing. However, in the coming days, the problem of delayed demand will be solved, and we will see a “clean” growth picture. At the same time, a jump from 1839 to 2708 identified cases per day, most likely, cannot be fully explained by deferred demand.

- Do you think there will be a new wave (fifth) more than the previous ones? Is there any understanding, what will be the incidence?

-If we talk about the officially published data, then it is already higher than the first (spring 2020) and the third (summer of 2021) and reached 2/3 of the second (autumn-winter 2020) and the fourth (autumn 2021). However, we must understand that the official data on the third, for example, the wave is intentionally underestimated at least two to three times. So far, there is every reason to believe that it will be much higher in relation to the number of cases. In any case, this is evidenced by the data of all countries into which Omicron came earlier.

- What happens to mortality? Does vaccination affect the number of deaths?

- It is difficult to talk about the situation with mortality in the country as a whole, because outside St. Petersburg we can only rely on the data of Rosstat, and data on the natural movement of the population in January will be published, at best, at the end of February.

As for the situation in St. Petersburg, the mortality rate is now quite high, according to operational accounting, about 3/4 from the maximums of the autumn waves of 2020 and 2021 - and significantly higher than the mortality rate characteristic of periods of the previous four waves (3, 2 and 1.5 times, respectively).

Vaccination reduces the risk of a severe course of illness and death, but in Russia it is difficult to evaluate this effect due to openness of open data. To calculate it according to the indicators that we have, you need a rather complicated model, but it will not be possible to start to count it before the end of February, since the total mortality in the Federal State Statistics Service for December and January will be needed.

- January 12, Alexander Ginzburg said that about 30 % of cases of infection in Moscow are already in the Omicron strain. What can his judgment be based on and can we say this about St. Petersburg?

- To be honest, I don’t know what Alexander Ginzburg is still based on his statements. We do not have screening sequencing on a randomized sample. The public domain is very scarce information, formed on the basis of a very displaced sample. What can be said about them about the degree of distribution of virus options in the population as a whole, I do not know. It is already important that he ["Omicron"] Exactly here.

- Given the information that Omicron is better bypassing immune defense, and in Russia there are still not so many vaccinated as you assess the prospects of the epidemiological situation?

- Pessimistic. But what it will cost us, we can only establish experimentally. We do not have a good model that could reflect Russian realities and the enormous degree of uncertainty that is characteristic of us. We have the most approximate data about the number of ill, about the number of revaccinated, we still do not know anything about the extent to which naturally acquired immunity, and to what extent the “satellite V” and “satellite of Light” are protected from “Omicron”. I would not want to guess. We must prepare for the worst scenario with some margin, and then rejoice that everything was easier.

- Today, more than 50 % of beds for patients with coronavirus are employed in St. Petersburg, and over the past week the number of hospitalizations - the main indicator of the epidemic - has grown by 20 %. Does the fact that we meet the beginning of the fifth wave of pandemia with such indicators inspire anxiety?

- In me - inspires. But what can we do? As I said, we cannot now “calculate” the effect of the Omcrone wave in St. Petersburg. We just do not know if we have the remaining beds.

“Omicron”, [according to studies of other countries], less often other options leads to complications and death, but so far we have data only for countries either with a rather young or almost vaccinated population. Of course, we differ from the vast majority of countries uniquely high shares, and have recently ill. Maybe this will somewhat soften the wave of Omcrone, but I would not have laid big hopes on it.

- What are the development scenarios of this wave now? Can we predict the approximate dates for the peak and its end?

- With such contagience , less time can take the rise [incidence] than in previous waves. If our assumptions are correct and the wave has already begun, then, by analogy with other countries, until the peak of about a month-semi, is hardly more.

- You conduct your own calculations of cases of coronavirus disease in St. Petersburg by the epitomatic that send you subscribers. You believe that this is the number of infections that is registered in the system of the authorities. What are the epidemic about now?

- At the moment, I literally have half a dozen numbers after the New Year, but they show a rather sharp increase (about 5-7 thousand a day instead of about 1-3 thousand per day, which were characteristic of a short period of calm after the autumn wave). This is indirectly confirmed by the data of the “covid” search queries of “Yandex” [with the key words “The smell of smell” and “saturation” was lost: they also went in growth last week.

- Recently, the head of the WHO said that the end of the pandemic is already looking at the horizon. Do you agree with him?

- The head of the WHO knows, I believe, much more than me and receives information from many reliable sources. At his disposal - conscientiously collected data and the best analysts. At the same time, I do not understand how he predicts the evolution of the virus. There are no guarantees that the next version of SARS-COV-2 will be softer than the previous one. The idea that this must certainly happen - they are quite naive. In any case, at the speeds that Omicron is distributed, we will soon understand whether it is visible on the horizon or not.

What else to read:

• It seems that Omicron will cover Petersburg and all of Russia in January. What you need to know about it .
• Moscow is already considering the introduction of restrictions due to the spread of a new strain.