Translated material
Tension at the border: the fate of the Chizhiks and the prospects of great bloodshed
In January 2022, it is difficult to write columns: it seems to be there a lot of hot ones, and the audience is inflated by anxiety and gloomy expectations, but there are almost no facts for analysis. Therefore, it remains only to emotion and (or) try to see the answer to all questions in some half-wings.
Unfortunately, we do not know anything about what our leaders are capable of and what they are actually going to arrange. And we have no ways to influence them. On the one hand, this removes responsibility for their decisions - and in fact, after all, no one has ever voted in Russia in Russia for the war in any referendum or elections. But it does not become easier from this, because only the winners are not judged (and only the first decades after the victory), and the losers are accurately judged, and all those who want to be convenient codes. But so far it is difficult to imagine what a victory can be in the current situation, and which is a defeat. And most importantly - what will happen to us together and each separately, if the events go along the most bad from the scenarios.
Russian policy in the bunker
The tightness of modern Russian politics, its complete detachment from the opinions and moods of the public, especially its progressive part, creates the main problem for any reasoning about the future. Can the war begin? Maybe. Or are they scared and change their minds? They can be frightened and change in, quite possible. Maybe all this is a bluff and an attempt to put pressure on the West, which will definitely not fight and does not want to? It is quite possible. Will our authorities stop our moods from making fatal decisions? No. What are they counting on? It is incomprehensible. But they have some kind of vision of the world, in the framework of which they do everything correctly, they have-and this is even more alarming, because if so, they do not doubt and are not afraid.
How do they see further? Unknown. And if everything goes wrong as planned, and will end badly? There will be new repressions and dissatisfied will be punished along all the severity of wartime - this, perhaps, can definitely have no doubt. Or will there be no repression? Maybe there will not be, who knows what they have on their minds there. And in such a dialectical spirit you can endlessly discuss everything.
There is a completely practical meaning in such reasoning: at least a partial reassurance of those who write and read them. Our brain is so arranged that it is easier for us to rationalize the madness that are happening around and come up with at least some logic by which you can live on and make plans for the future. Because to live one day and not to build any plans-this is suitable only for vulgar pop psychology and statuses in social networks.
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