Is there really a war on the threshold?

The Ukrainian conflict was completely defrosted. The discussion of military experts of "New" about scenarios for the development of the conflict of Russia and Ukraine

From the editorial office
Our military observer sent this alarming text to the editorial office of Novy on Tuesday February 23, in the evening. And a few hours later, in the early morning of February 24, President Putin announced the beginning of the so -called “special operation” on “demilitarization” and “denacing” of Ukraine. Unfortunately, the forecast of our colleague, which until the last did not want to believe, became a reality.

Analysis of military maneuvers in the DPR and LPR area from Valery Shiryaev can be read here.

The first Minsk agreements were signed in early September 2014 without the participation of Western leaders. They ceased to fire and marked the control line in the Donbass after the Russian regular troops of the “vacationers” (somewhere 8-10 battalion-tactical groups, with artillery, volley fire systems and Israeli combat drones to adjust fire) crossed the border and halved the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the vagrates in the battles of Saur-Mogila, Ilovayka and Lugansk airport.

In February 2015, through the mediation of Germany and France, a more detailed Minsk-2 document was signed to stop the new offensive of pro-Russian forces and “vacationers”. The Armed Forces were then defeated in the Debaltsevo boiler, but then the offensive stopped. Seven years after that the regime of relative truce in the Donbass was replaced by shootings, skirmishes and new periods of “silence”, but the Minsk-2 agreement itself, which spelled out the mechanism of “DPR”/“LPR” in “federalized”, was not fulfilled with a changed constitution.

However, the line of control of the ceasefire also remained. But the control line in the Donbass remained unchanged.

Now, after the recognition of the “DPR”/“LPR”, when “reintegration” to talk late, President Vladimir Putin declared Minsk-2 “non-existent”.

That is, the regime of the ceasefire in the Donbass, followed by the special monitoring mission of the OSCE in Ukraine (SMM), has agreements on the removal of heavy weapons and de -escalation along the line of control and at the very line, as it is indicated on the terrain, all this has no legal basis. Negotiations at the highest level and at the level of experts in the so-called “Norman format” between the Russian Federation, Ukraine, France and Germany are obviously abolished, since their goal was the implementation of Minsk-2, which no longer “exists”. The thin world has ended, and in the uncertainty of the parties, only power arguments seem to remain in the parties.

Putin announced that he recognized the “DPR”/“LPR” in the previous administrative borders of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions, which is much more than the current territory, a limited line of control. The president emphasized that Kyiv and DPR/LPR should somehow agree on the demarcation in the future, but at present it is impossible, since "combat operations are ongoing and tend to exacerbate." Putin announced to Kyiv the conditions for the termination of the conflict. Ukraine, as well as Western countries, must recognize Crimea by the Russian. Ukraine should refuse forever from NATO membership, and should also be completely demilitarized, and then, Putin claims, at the next change of leadership in Kyiv they will change their minds and abandon previous obligations. That is, the Armed Forces and their weapons must be eliminated, and Ukraine, obviously, should become a certain demilitarized buffer zone between the Russian Federation and the West, where Moscow will be able to put things in order, set borders, dictate decisions, sweet or punish any organized resistance. This is not even the “Finlandization” of Ukraine, which a lot has been talking about recently. During the Cold War, the Finns were allowed to preserve the armed forces and some other signs of a sovereign state. It is clear that neither the Armed Forces of Ukraine, nor the Ukrainian people, the vast majority of them without a fight, will not accept the conditions of such surrender.

After the recognition of the “republics”, skirmishes and shootings on the control line in the Donbass continue. Moscow signed contracts and pledged to provide military assistance to the republics. First of all, the 150th motorized rifle division (MSD) of the 8th Guards Army, which is deployed on the border of Donbass, can advance to the rescue. The 150th MSD is a powerful connection armed with modern equipment-the main reserve of the 1st and 2nd Building of the DPR/LPR, but it can be supported by other troops of the Southern Military District. The appearance of a powerful Russian group in the Donbass could lead to a quick and complete cessation of fire. But, according to Putin, “Russian troops will not go there right now,” since it all depends on the situation “on Earth”.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are clearly not going to advance through the control line, and then the DPR/LPR building can become shooters of escalation so that the RF Armed Forces remain up to the time. The purpose of the operation can be declared the liberation of Mariupol, Kramatorsk, Slavyansk, Bakhmut and other territories of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions, which is now under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But in the Building of the DPR/LPR, which from the very beginning were formed on a voluntary basis, in recent years there have been increasing problems with a lack of personnel. All weapons and ammunition are mountains there. There is a qualified command staff sent on a rotational basis, and fighters are a shortage. From the very beginning of the conflict, many volunteers came to the Donbass, but the local population did not want to fight for the mass. In order to somehow solve the problem and replenish the human resource, the “republics” announced the general mobilization of men from 18 to 55 years old and banned them to release them to Russia.

In the "LPR" it was ordered to “heads of organizations, regardless of ownership” to dismiss men and provide their turnout for draft plots. It is also ordered to transfer serviceable personal cars, "road-building and other equipment" to the authorities. The evacuation of women, old people and children in the Russian Federation continues, and it seems that there was no PR campaign to justify the recognition of the “DPR”/“LPR”. Everything is seriously.

But such general mobilization with simultaneous evacuation will accurately destroy the remnants of social and economic infrastructure in the Donbass, and this certainly cannot last for a long time.

In addition, the mobilized contingent is not trained for the mass of his own and does not want to fight for the “DPR”/“LPR”. In offensive actions against well -prepared and motivated Ukrainians, there will be little benefit from them. Purely cannon meat. However, even when regular Russian troops pull up on the front, walks will not work. The cities in the Donbass will have to be liberated in hard battles, equalizing them for the most part with the ground. And in Mariupol, for example, the population is really largely configured by pro -Russian and awaits completely different.

The Armed Forces began to call back reservists with the experience of military operations, and they were also ready to arm million two volunteers of territorial defense - also untrained, but motivated. History knows many cases when, during the national liberation war, the people ultimately overcome a stronger enemy. The RF Armed Forces have total superiority in the sea and in the air, more modern heavy weapons and long -range missile systems. But in the viscous prolonged and bloody conflict, these advantages will come to naught. However, now regular the RF Armed Forces are brought into the highest degree of combat readiness and are capable of more than just squeezing the Armed Forces from Kramatorsk and Mariupol.

President Putin formulated the task absolutely clearly: not the seizure of territories, but the “demilitarization” of Ukraine, that is, the total defeat and the capture of the main combat -ready formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The territories can later deal with the territories. Obviously, they will try to first draw the Armed Forces into the frontal confrontation in the Donbass, where even mobilized from the “DPR”/“LPR” will come in handy. And then the blitzkrieg will begin: a speedy deep operation with the flanking breakthroughs in the environment and the defeat of the enemy chopped from the front. Strategic Cannes, as taught at the Academy of the General Staff. The main thing, of course, is the speed and organization of the actions of the heterogeneous forces and means of different types and branches of the troops. Any delay can lead to a prolonged conflict, and this is a disaster.

The risk, of course, is great, but the lot seems to be abandoned. The Russian embassy in Kyiv is evacuated, the Russian flag was lowered there. Obviously, the time for diplomacy has passed, and the fate of the peoples will be decided on the battlefield.